vastateofmind

Oh, @Scraff...I love when you post your beer porn.

Can confirm timing/conditions on all the above...currently 33/31, air temp dropped from 37 at 3 p.m. hour (when I left Fort Belvoir). Oh, and it's doing this:

Yes, but -- your "middle ground" approach is appreciated, as well as your willingness to concede potential errors in your previous judgments and/or predictions. Without errors or mistakes identified...I don't learn. I don't hold anybody to their predictions...we're all aware of how difficult it can be to achieve any snow here at times. I'm still learning to see how all of the moving pieces of the atmospheric machinery interact to produce conditions conducive to colder/snowier winter wx (which, I think most of us want to some degree). You, @Bob Chill, @showmethesnow have broken down the long range discussions SO well in step-by-step fashion, particularly over the past three months...so thanks for that. And thanks for going out on a limb for longer-range predictions. It helps me a lot.

FWIW, LWX added another potential 1" for SE FfxCo on this graphic, since early this A.M.

I've improved my LR model reading & comprehension skills a bit by reading Cranky's long-ish missives over the past year or so. His blog entries are not always as step-by-step/detailed as @showmethesnow or @psuhoffman, and he can indeed get cantankerous and throw shade at the Twitter-based wx hypemasters, but on the whole, I've learned from his discussions. I've got a long way to go.

A purely unofficial obs, but I did stumble up out of the LR easy chair between 3:30-4 a.m. today to drag myself up to bed, and saw when glancing at the thermometer on my way that the temp IMBY had risen to 53 degrees. I rolled out about 9 a.m., and it was back down to 40 degrees, and is now 35/19. Though we're under a wind advisory, wind gusts haven't been that bad...perhaps up to 40 mph, and ~15-20 sustained.

Just checking in after being out most of the evening....what are conditions at your MD place right now?

So, which specific areas in our region do you think could see thunder-frozen? Probably my favorite meteorological phenom of all time.

I personally hope y'all get a thump of some sort out of this sh*tshow coming over the next two days...you (and the Mason Dixon line folks) deserve it, especially after we in the VA 'burbs south of the District bull-ishly cashed in with 8"-10" of snow last weekend.

Currently 37/32 here. The 1.2"-1.5" that fell overnight has long melted away, but we still have about 2/3 of the snowpack from last weekend on the ground here, which means ~2"-3" where it still exists. Interesting that forecast called for temps in low-mid 40s today, but we're just not getting there...probably has no impact on what happens tomorrow/Sunday (especially here in NoVA), but...interesting. So, @mappy, just what DO you have on the ground at home in terms of snow? I've caught spotty updates in several topics over past 1-2 days, but still don't have a clear picture on what white stuff (if any) is actually on the ground in your area, on over to @psuhoffman-land after last weekend and last evening.

Troegs = one of my fave microbreweries in the NE. Also, flurries just starting; also need to enter into mPING.

I feel ya, brother. I'm always futzing with the pic size to get it down to manageable posting size here. All good. BTW, 35/24 here in SE FFxCo, with radar-indicated flakes appearing to be arriving within the hour (or so).

I thought about asking @clskinsfan for a pic or two from his Jebwalk...but when you replied, I was more tempted to ask you, @Scraff, for an updated pic of your fridge contents this evening.

Preach. I was caught in a much more localized version of the Feb 12, 2008 debacle, commuting from Fort Belvoir to my home a mere six miles away -- a normally 20-min trip that turned into a four-hour slog that afternoon. It was only a light snow dropping 1-2" (that I recall), but which created a thin scrum of roadway ice, with cars spinning/bailing out in every direction every few minutes, causing most roads on or around post to randomly close down every 10-20 min on a temp/perm basis. It was a continual battle of wits, to constantly re-think and re-route the escape strategy from Belvoir that afternoon. Hands-down worst commute ever...and reason enough to consider leaving earlier today if indeed flakes arrive earlier, and especially now that we're under a WWA.

I typically come here to lurk for the excellent wx analysis...but of course, I always enjoy the Freudian slips, too. EDIT: 'd by @stormtracker

30/28, received (about) 1.5" on top of the 6.75 we received overnight. Absolutely, stunningly beautiful evening out there...if you haven't made time for a Jebwalk, you really should.

Yep. You and I are only a couple miles apart, and I'm impressed with how the rates have picked up in past 15 minutes. Still 32/28 IMBY (has been for hours), however, with current snow, all pavements have whitened back up again. To @Deck Pic's point, I hope the radar keeps filling in and we can maintain this for another several hours. Might still verify that 1"-3" that NWS progged for SE FfxCo.

Holding at 32/28, with barely visible snizzle. And that pic of your fridge from Friday evening, @Scraff, was as beautiful as what we see outside right now.

32/28, light snow just fired up again. 5.75" IMBY. Beautiful morning.

Currently 30/26...probably about .75" on grassy areas. (Vids taken about 30 minutes ago but rates still about the same). Beautiful night for a Jebwalk.

Beautiful. And...I'd almost be tempted to rip the cover off that (presumable!) firepit and sit out there in the snow and enjoy an IPA or three. Or bourbon. Or (fill in your favorite beer/spirit here).

Currently 26/12, with high clouds just starting to blur the nearly first quarter moon. And I'm throwing back my second Troeg's Troegenator double bock (my favorite PA export) of the evening. One or two more, and I can't guarantee any further reliable obs.

Yep. I'm extreme SE corner of FfxCo, but light snow just started within past 10 or so minutes. I'm not expecting more than mood flakes...but will hope for a coating or more, based on the over-perform from a couple weeks ago. Currently 34 degrees.

She's pretty close to the mark -- just glanced again outside, and in areas of open grass, I'd estimate that there's ~1" here at Belvoir. All roads and parking lots within sight are mostly snow covered...they're not usually in as good shape on post as they are out on the mains anyway. Still shocked.

Ahhh, tell me it's going to be one of those homemade soup days you're famous for, @Mrs.J... 33/29 at Fort Belvoir, still w/ moderate snow. Everything covered...a lot more (.5" ?) than in this pic, which was snapped 30 minutes ago.