MD Snow

Just now, nj2va said:

6z Euro cut back a bit on QPF, most pronounced in NOVA.

What's the precip map look like on the 6z for the event? 

Tonight will come down to where the heaviest precip sets up. The NAM's and HRRR come in hot and heavy while the RGEM and HRDPS keep the heaviest south of DC.  It's literally a 50 mile difference but that 50 miles will make the difference IMO whether there's a general .5-1" or 2-4". I hope the NAM's are right. 

18z 12k nam at range, so caveats etc... but has some snow into DC at 84 hrs. Also, has the TPV further south and appears to be interacting with the TPV. Not sure if it's acting to suppress or trying to phase a bit...thoughts? 

Both the 3k and 12k are hinting at some pretty heavy bands moving from west to east. I'd imagine if someone can manage to get under one of those, rates would be pretty fun and this could be an over-performer  for someone. 

Just now, Scraff said:

NAM—please be right for the first time ever. 

I mean, it is in it's wheelhouse....

Anything over an inch would be a win for this one imo. 

18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north.

Side note: I keep going back and forth on whether or not to hook up my plow for this event. I guess I'll do it just to be safe. 

1 hour ago, Dabuckeyes said:

It appears the UKIE does not get any precip into MD.  

Yup. Nothing new. It has never gotten precip into MD for this threat. It was just yesterday that it started to even show a storm. 

Other than the GFS and GEFS coming back to earth...this threat hasn't really changed imo. The majority of models over the last 48hrs - euro, uk, icon and cmc - have actually trended slightly better or stayed the same. 

Gfs, para and cmc in pretty good agreement considering we’re still 4.5 days out. A good 0z suite so far. 

Surprised no one mentioned the 12z GEPS. Just looking at total precip on TT and it’s pretty bad. A step back from 0z imo. Any thoughts? 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

H5 is weak sauce as it approaches the coast compared to 0z and 6z. Not gonna cut it with the thermals.

Gfs is the only model that has an issue with thermals. 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Haven’t looked at the surface yet but the euro trended significantly stronger with the h5 feature this run. Not all the way to the gfs but a step that way. 

I’m still out....until the ICON gets on board. 

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS certainly not horrible

12z introduces more southern (miss) solutions than 6z. Nothing to worry about. Still looks great! 

1. 0z EURO still starts everyone from Route 50 north with snow.. As @MillvilleWx pointed out last night, a front end thump or at least some snow is still very much on the table depending on dews etc. 

2. All the caveats but 6z Nam and RGEM are both significantly colder at the end of their runs than the GFS and other globals at the same time. They should definitely be given more weight as we move into later today and into tomorrow. Could they possibly be on to something? 

3. I don't think this is as out of reach as other's. Get the precip to come in hot and heavy and wetbulb takes over. This isn't a super amped system. I think 1-2" from a line between dc/balt and 2-4" balt north to the md/pa border is definitely still on the table before the switch. 

4. Also, I doubt this comes any further north as we get closer to game time given the block and the setup. If anything, it should adjust south slightly. 

5. This board was a total weenie dumpster fire last night imo...haha..

I'd hate to be in the bullseye 180hrs out...just saying...

28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But, but Weather Will said it ticked north.

I'll see you in February. 

I count...

29 members with the 2" line roughly down close to DC/Balt

12 that are pretty much complete misses for the cities. 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

neutral tilt on this run..lets see how north she goes

Heavies to the south. We get some snow. I"ll take it this far out. If the current GFS trend over the last 5 runs for this threat continues, we'll be in the bullseye by 6z. 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs?

You were the one that said just yesterday or the day before that your biggest concern was suppression with this one. Are you changing your tune on this?  

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We'll probably flip, but we are nowhere near out of the game on this one.

Yup. This has potential to be a great front end thump to mix back to snow once the LPC is east of us. Plenty of cold just to our north. These specifics won't be picked up 5 days out. 

12z ICON with the followup wave on the 28. Looks to be healthy but would probably be south verbatim. Just glad to see it there. 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Icon is mostly rain S of the MD line and mostly snow north of it.

135 hrs  has a continuous stripe of snow from the KS/CO line to the Jersey shore.

hmm....

Yeah. ICON favors areas north of the cities mos.  This this range, I'll totally take it, especially given the trend of systems trending more suppressed as we get closer to game time. Also, give me a block, prime climo,  and cold nearby. That's my attitude toward the coming week. 

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead, not a bad look here. Decent injection of cold into our source region between the WPO-ish ridge and the TPV. Enough of a trough near AK keeping the sprawling Pac ridge in check, neutral PNA, and still a decent NAO look, although displaced southwestward.. W US trough progressing eastward.

6z GEFS has a similar look at hr 360. 

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Couldn't be any worse right?

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

Nah, IMO, last night's 0z GFS run was the worst it could get. 

Yup. A step in the right direction.