MD Snow

I have to keep reminding myself that it's only the middle of January. We really have about a week until the Pac starts to become more favorable. After that it's going to take a while to scour out this putrid airmass. So we're really 10-14+ days out from really knowing what things are going to be like and getting an air mass nearby that will support anything outside of a fluke and get frozen into the cities. I could see it going either way in Feb. I think January 25 onward is the time to be keeping an eye on. That's 10+ days out. As we know, modeling is at best, unreliable 10+ days out. As hard as it is, I think we need to let it play out a bit more before calling it. 

48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fun times tracking another small scale event lol. As advertised it is probably about a 50-75 mile wide area of decent precip. At h5 there really isn't a shortwave, and the upper jet as advertised isn't all that favorable. Appears this would mostly be driven by the sharp temperature gradient across the Artic boundary with fgen forcing at h7 and h85. I am sure the models have the location of that boundary (and forcing) nailed. 

At this juncture, it would be nice to keep the boundary slightly south of us for a few more days before the bleed north as the Euro and CMC currently have it. 

Anybody got 18z EPS for Thursday/Friday? 

It would appear that it's the GFS/CMC verse Euro/ICON for next week's threat. GFS camp has two weaker waves come at us. EURO/ICON blow up one condensed cutter that wreck any chance of frozen whatsoever for our area. 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Canadian ens looks better lol.

Euro/EPS still not enthused with the idea of freezing/frozen.

I'll say it again- late next week is worth keeping a casual eye on, but it's not the one. Probably too soon as it occurs at the front end of a shift in the pattern.

Yeah, it might be the only one! We've all been around this hobby long enough to know that a good look in the long range can disappear pretty quickly. This is why I'll track the 6/7 day threat hard. It might be the last winter event of the season. 

Wait, a threat to track next week? Chuck said it can't snow. And Will said that we should shut the blinds until March. And we're in a nina. It doesn't do this in a nina!

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS… I see I did not miss anythIng going out to dinner…

It's really not that different than 6z or 12z. Just a touch south. I tend to hold things loosely, when the op is throwing out 6-10" totals and it's ensembles are barely over 2".

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

wow...that's a heck of a spread! Next 24 hrs should be interesting to watch. 

18z GEFS improved for this coming weekend both at h5 and a considerable bump west in precip. 

This is the type of setup where @psuhoffman gets a sneaky 1-2".

GEM trended better both at surface and h5 as well. 

How do you do you get snow to accumulate with a crappy airmass in February? Nigh time. Happening at night would be a big plus if this were to continue to trend stronger. 

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya and 0z didn’t and ukmet had it before and it’s gone now as well. 

At this point, as long as there is a signal for a storm on Sunday we're good. We need to wait until we get further into the Friday storm until details start getting worked out for the Sunday system. 

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet vs gfs lol. Only a 20-30 deg difference over northern MD nbd. 

That's like what, 40-50miles? I don't see how this is such a huge difference given it's still 3 days out. It's starting to become pretty clear that the GFS is overdone with it's cold push and other models have it to warm. 6z and 12z gfs have backed off a bit and other guidance has come in colder. This is most likely setting up to be a rain to ice for northern and western counties. Best case for frozen imo would be,  warnings far north and west with advisories just to north and west of cities. 

10 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Still not buying what the gfs is selling. No other model support. The idea that it’s the new king is overdone just like the models desire to overdo the cold chasing precip. Wouldn’t rule out some icy conditions; but what’s depicted on the gfs doesn’t look likely. Nws isn’t buying it either. 

Pretty much all model's now show us at least changing to a brief period of frozen. What the GFS is selling is really not that far fetched anymore. The question now is does the GFS hold and model's continue to trend to it or do they meet in the middle? 

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

As I (and others) have tried to point out, the GFS was way too east with the weekend blizzard for much of the medium and short range. Wasn’t even close

Yup, and the euro was showing a blizzard for the metro's this time last week for the same time period. 

2 minutes ago, Snowman98 said:

rain, eh?

It did shift s/e though at 12z. 

CMC, ICON and GFS want nothing to do with making this a threat. Nam and RGEM seem poised to follow at the end of their runs. My hunch is that Euro and Ukie lose it today or tomorrow at the latest. 

Extended hrrr coming in wetter from the coastal for areas west of bay….

LPC even does a little left hook/tuck south of nyc on 12k nam. 
 

5”+ dc/Balt and points east to bay. 

06z Nam 12k - trough axis further west and the surface responds. Low positioned wester. Coastal Precip further west this run. 

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

If the trough were to go negative a tad earlier and the phase a tad earlier, could we get some of those bigger amounts east of the Bay back over to us?  Or is it too late for that?

Yes. 6z GFS continued trending accumuating snow further south with the ULL passage. However, it came west with the heavier qpf amounts from the coastal passage. Still not enough for those of us west of the bay but something to watch today.  

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looking promising at 60.  Less energy left behind and heights building slightly more 

On pins and needles for hour 61...

Anybody have the EURO Ens snowfall map? 

9 minutes ago, jayyy said:

As @psuhoffman has said a few times, we need to be cautious here. Only having the NAM / Euro showing such a west solution is a bit of a warning sign given their know biases to overdo the western flank of storms. We need to see other models continue the trend west 

Jma and cmc are also similar to euro and nam. It’s not just euro and nam.