MD Snow

Shift north is in progress across guidance. Hard to deny.


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But the RGEM…


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Haha…digital blue alert on the euro…


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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Icon is definitely a bit worse for some, for the little it matters.

And yes, it's the Icon but it seems to be following the other globals last few runs of a slightly warmer more inland track...

Gfs weaker with the ejected energy

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Block seems slightly weaker. 50/50 is slightly easter.


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Hard to get too excited about this.

It’s the ICON 5 days out…


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Icon is interesting…


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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ok so not THAT different. Primary into OH, then maybe redevelop somewhere off the coast. 

Yeah, really not that different in the grand scheme of things. Especially for a 5-6 day lead. 

Ugh…no icon on TT for the pregame warmup…


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The theme all winter is for model's to pretty much lock into a general final solution from about 5 days or 120hrs out. Small wobbles here and there but general track etc pretty much set by that point. Given the blocking that's setting up and how this slow's the flow down a bit, I wouldn't be suprised if the general track is nailed down earlier than that for the 11-12th threat. So I'd imagine we've got another day or two of some crazy swings before the ops really start locking it in. 

8-9 days out guys…


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Holy CMC at 198


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But that meso band that gets us isn’t a feature we can’t rely on at this range. The NW trend if the storm actually continued. Sorry but Imo it was a worse run in every way except the clown snow map. 

Totally agree with you. I understand what’s going on. I saw the eps. But like I said, given the trend to a cutter our only chance at seeing any wintry precipitation in this set up would be something on the front end imo.


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The snow is from a front runner wave. The main show actually trended slightly northwest. Something like that could happen but just pointing out the main event didn’t truly improve Imo. 

Front end dump is how we score in this set up. That’s what I’m tracking.


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GEPS actually took a nice step south

I don’t know. Maybe just tightening the goal posts.


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Glad to be tracking a threat inside 6 days! That's a win for this winter. 

Thinking model's lock into a general track over the next 24 hrs. At that point, we start talking details. If we land on a general euro/cmc/icon solution and the low tracks to our south, it will be interesting to see how the block effects things in the final 96 hrs. Been fun to watch the tuesday storm get punched south over the last 48-72hrs. Looks like areas in southeast PA could even start as snow now, where a few days it was southern new york. 

Obviously, a gfs track dooms pretty much everyone. If we can avoid that cutter solution, I think there's a chance even the cities get into at least some accumulations. 

Not sure if the storm has finished across all ens members by 144 on the eps? Some may start as rain and end as snow which may not be included in the snow map?


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12z GFS seems to be showing some winter "threats" for the region starting with the 22nd through the end of the run.... continues the idea of 06z GFS 
Only 9 days away lol
 
 

CMC also shows a wave on the 22nd with temp issues along with a significant ice storm for Balt metro on the 24th.


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1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

What is this window?  

The storm on the 23/24 and the chance of a front end thump. GFS, Euro and CMC all showing potential at this point. 


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CMC is pretty close as well. Major winter storm verbatim for the northern crew. I’ve been watching this window for a couple days now. GFS has been close a few times. Nice to see gfs and cmc move in the right direction tonight.

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The 0z EPS offers the most workable scenario for snow in our general region. The evolution and track would place significant precip in the higher terrain where it could actually snow given the lack of cold. Verbatim the mean is not bad for the NW burbs either, but again, those temps. This has always been a very low probability period for frozen in the lowlands.

Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow. 

Nice to see guidance possibly trending to something somewhat interesting inside of 5 days for once.


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57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why you teasing them?  Lol. This is why Ive been so confident we’re screwed all winter. The status quo temp profile is so warm that even on runs when almost everything goes perfect it’s still rain. Euro barely gives me like 2” of slop up here on a run with a perfect everything that should be a 6”+ easy.  
 

The only times we’ve been cold enough all winter was twice when a tpv was cruising by just to our north. But good luck getting something to work in that kind of flow. 
 

I think that’s one part some aren’t getting. If the temp profile is so atrocious that the only way to be cold enough is to have a tpv or some ridiculed amount of confluence right on top of us…ya ok. That’s not gonna work. We need to be cold enough when those features are actually further away giving waves room to amplify. 

Well, the gfs just gave you 6+" with everything working out perfectly. So I guess it's not completely impossible for people with elevation. I know we're screwed regardless in the lowlands but hoping you can get a nice event at some point before middle of march. 

As it has been pointed out countless times, the only real way we're going to get snow this year will be by getting lucky or a fluke. Wave on the heels of a cold front, weak overrunning etc.  Imo, our next chance of backing into a fluke event would after Feb 18 or so through the end of the month. Something to at least watch. May be our last shot of at least seeing flakes. 

 

The look below is supported by both the GEPS and EPS. 

Living in the lowlands I’m well aware of my fate most winters. At this point, in this winter, I just want someone to score. I’m rooting for areas to the north and west to at least get one solid event.


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