MD Snow

FWIW 6z 12k Nam does get light precip into the eastern shore on Sunday morning. 

Anybody got the 0z ukie? 

I'm hugging the 18z HRDPS 

Interesting to see the 3k nam at hr 48 with a band very similar to the localized heavy band on the EURO through central MD to the bay and on the eastern shore on tuesday. Wouldn't that be something. 

NAM's, RGEM and ICON all agree on having light/moderate snow in most of maryland tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Not anything amazing in regards to the CCB but it's there. A chance for many to pick up a few more inches up to another 4-8" for northern areas. 

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously 

Not going to post images but they definitely trended snowier with precip from the coastal tomorrow afternoon and night. 

18z ICON gives us some nice light/moderate snow tomorrow afternoon/evening! Eastern shore looks to do well tomorrow night! 

Encouraging trends on the the 18z nams! 

Need rates. 

31/27

Not just a hobby for me. I'm a landscaper so this effects snow removal for me. 

Snow started around 7:30. Quickly stuck to everything. Had a little dry spell around 9:30. Roads and even side roads clear now and rates having a hard time overcoming. Snow will not accumulate on roads with a temp of 31 and light/moderate rates. Would be a big bust for snow removal companies in AA county if this continues. 

All guidance has the heavies coming in later this afternoon. So i'm still cautiously optimistic. 

This past Tuesday, the 12k NAM was showing the area getting a 2-4". The RGEM? .5-1". RGEM nailed it. 

12z JMA through 72 hours with a precip max of 1.25-1.50 qpf for north east md/southeast pa. Has the rest of us (most of md) at 1-1.25". Using limited maps on TT. 

13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Guys we got greedy, lets just be happy that all of the models agree we get 3-6 inches of snow. Enough to look nice and cover the grass. Also this is for Sunday one of the rare times when the ground is frozen so it will stick. This happens almost every time with a Miller B but there is time for it to shift back to us it is still two-three days out. 

There are still models giving many in our forum 8"+. The Euro just gave literally everyone forum wide 6-20." "Settling" for 3-6" is really on the low end of all guidance. 

2 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

Looks like we're also still 'orange' for a winter storm threat. Can we at least get red? lol

I think it's a better safe than sorry-just in case type deal. Throw in everything when there's still some uncertainty....

I'd imagine watches will go up with the afternoon update this afternoon. Tomorrow morning at the latest. 

On a side note...All it took was @psuhoffman having a mini melt last night for things to start heading in the right direction again! haha!

Just now, psuhoffman said:

UK is a picture perfect capture/stall location for our area.  Hopefully the euro follows.  

12z so far: 

Ukie, GGEM, GFS, RGEM, Para, ICON vs 12k nam

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did this thing seriously just give the I-95 corridor 20 inches? Lol Probably the wackiest model run we've seen to date!

Except the EURO with 30"+ for central virginia earlier in the week! 

GFS with some 1'+ totals north and west of the cities. 

Through 60...GFS is 1 mb weaker and smidge further south with the primary compared to it's 6z run. This results in a slightly colder surface for the WAA snow. 

ICON literally sits off the coast of OC for 24 hrs from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. 

ICON appears to be slightly south and tucked in with LPC from it's 6z through 81 hrs. Precip shield further north and west. 

ICON get's areas north and west with the deform so far through 81hrs. Sitting about 50 miles of OC. 

2 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

If we can believe the RGEM (usual caveats of being out of range), it's a beautiful storm for the entire area

Appears to fringe northern areas of the forum with the deform band so far through 74hrs. Slightly south of 6z. 

Just now, high risk said:

          Yeah, don't overlook this.    NAM nest was notably drier than the parent.   PWs seemed quite a bit lower over the source region for the moisture - not sure if it's correct, but I don't recommend completely dismissing it either.

Let's not overlook that the NAM nest is still not in it's wheelhouse range. 

Just some food for thought, the forming of the coastal is still outside of the NAM's wheelhouse. 

 12z NAM at 33hrs with less confluence to the northeast. Slightly less on both 6z and 12z. 

15 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I don't think most would be upset at 5-10 for much of the forum; it's the trends that are scaring people that we might end up with a minor event or even a whiff.  My bar is 6" without rain washing it away.  I'd be very happy with one storm like that as I was expecting a shutout winter.

I think it should be pointed out that not a single piece of guidance supports a whiff. Again, the only piece of guidance that is south right now is the Euro and it bullseye's the mid-atlantic with a general 5-10". 

8 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Yep and euro is now one of the worst outcomes. From Best to worst. Frustrating considering its still the most accurate  model. 

And the Euro's "worst" solution is still a solid 5-10" for much of the forum. 

It's kind of comical the weenie reactions last night and this morning. 

I know we're close enough that ensembles don't carry as much weight and tend to follow the op... I'd still like to see if there is any spread within the Euro ens or if they are all pretty much in agreement with the op.