MD Snow

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If this solution had more support I might be worried especially for people to the north  of Baltimore. But to me, this EURO solution is just making pretty clear that this is looking more and morel like a mid-atlantic special. That's all I take from this solution. 

One thing I'd like to point out...

The EURO is still not what it used to be. Sure it's schooled the GFS over the last week in the long range. But it's missed on it's share of storms/details, even in the short range, over the last couple of years. The GFS is terrible outside of 120 hrs but its scores increase as we get closer to game time. I'd be taking a blend of everything at this point. EURO is by far the furthest south solution. No other model is showing what the euro is showing. 

Also, even PSU has pointed out that even with a suppressed, more south solution, there is usually a bump north in the last 24-48hrs. hmm...if you are using that reasoning, even with a Euro solution, PSU would still get his deform.... 

Just now, Weather Will said:

10 pm

There's my sleet/freezing rain with a chance of snow! 

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah if the ens members don't agree with the op at this range then something is broken.

It's GFS vs Euro. Which one will cave..

I think there's a case to be made that it's the NAM, RGEM, CMC, ICON, UKMET, GFS vs. EURO

PSU set off a chain reaction last night. He had people who were bullsyed by the 0z euro talking about being fringed/ending up being a non event by today... I mean if other pieces of guidance were trending like the EURO i'd be concerned too but there's just not...so far...

GFS would be roughly a 2-5 front end snow followed by another 1-2 as the coastal pulls away. 

GFS holds or takes a slight step back. Still some coastal snows though. So not off the table on the GFS.  ICON took a pretty significant step toward the GFS at 12z after looking very EURO'ish at 6z. Still a long way to go. 

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Even the northern crew struggles to hit warning criteria snowfall on this run of the GFS. We better hope the GEPS and the Euro look better.

Yeah...6z didn't have warning level criteria for the northern crew either. 

12z GFS at 102...slightly warmer than both it's 6z and 0z runs. Transfer ongoing. 

 Primary is stronger and slightly north of 6z. One could make the case that this isn't going to cut it for our thermals after the initial thump and the transfer along the coast. Let's see. 

Icon amps the primary. It’s north of its 6z run. Thermals become an issue as the coastal gets going. Coastal forms further north as a result. 6z was headed to a very nice run at end of its 6z run hr 120. Not so much at 12z. 

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Folks the ENS mean surface temps are likely too high because there are some ridiculously wound up interior coastal lows. 

Yup, take those 5-6 inland solutions out and it’s awesome for most. 

Ridge out west is noticeably further west at 132 compared to 18z GEFS.  

996 sitting off the delmarva at 144. Cities turn over to snow. 

Edit - 993 at 150 still sitting off the delmarva. 

9 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Is that.. son of TPV 1 up in Maine?? This is giving me deja vu because I could've sworn that the Canadian was the first to pick up on this feature for the Thurs event

Yeah...interesting....that feature was there on the CMC for yesterday's 12z run and it was a MECS. Snowed for 2 days. If indeed that feature is there I think it'll come down to how they interact. Also, the TPV isn't what suppressed the Thursday event. It's the fact that today's sw just sits in the northeast and doesn't allow Thursdays sw to amplify. 

Just now, BristowWx said:

Is that in addition to the thump? 

No. A general 3-6 for the MA mostly from the "thump."

All models are showing a borderline warning level event, at a minimum. You'd think based off the vibes right now it's winter canceled.  

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Cmc has some light overrunning then that's about it.

if 3-6" is considered light...

CMC pretty much misses everybody including the northeast with any coastal snows. Just light stuff. Looks to be off sure. ULL goes south of us but just light stuff through 162. 

CMC is a front end thump to dry slot. Coastal is to our northeast at hr 150. Not sure if it's going to get us with ULL/wraparound snows. 

Through 108 canadian is pretty much the same...a smidge further south with the LPC placement and HPC of 1037 instead of 1038 at 0z. 

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

EURO better hold! I think GFS will evolve a bit better. Would love all to align soon. This winter is nerve wracking.

 

The ICON and EURO wanted nothing to do with the thursday event and they ended up being right. 

It wasn't until about 96 hrs out from precip onset, that the GFS went south on the Thursday event. So I'd give it until tomorrow 18z if not sooner before it trends further south. 

The further north and longer the primary takes to transfer means a further north transfer favoring areas to our north. I'm not sweating the GFS. Especially after how it handled Thursday's system. 

4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Through 126, GFS has the primary in central IN.  Way further north than almost all other guidance.

Eh it probably stays north for another 24-36hrs...seems like a familiar situation...only this time when it shifts south it might be a shift in our favor...

Guidance says we've only got 90hrs until our storm forms in the midwest. Getting closer. 

Sleet/snow mix in Glen Burnie 21061. 

35/20

Crazy good CMC run. Crushes us. Basically snows for 42 hrs from hrs 144-186.