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Everything posted by Superstorm93

  1. Sheesh. That would be one heck of a surge threat.
  2. Surprised how good it looks. Might have to watch the Guantanamo radar pretty closely as well.
  3. 12z GFS That pattern has yikes written all over it. We'll see how the system looks once it moves away from Cuba
  4. MLC/LLC might be making an appearance on the Gitmo radar
  5. Interesting observation picked up by Sillin as well
  6. This is going to be quite interesting once the poleward outflow channel becomes established
  7. Windspeed had a great post about this on the previous page. TLDR: Marco is small and doesn't have that much of a core right now. Its fast motion will also limit the amount of upwelling. Laura should be fine with temps in the 30-31 Celsius range.
  8. I'm just curious if we can get a decent center fix on this thing before it heads over Cuba. Pretty massive implications if this rides the southern coast instead of riding the spine.
  9. VDM has 994mb with no eye available. This is why its not appropriate to run around saying this is rapidly intensifying.
  10. Pressure up a bit on the latest pass with winds in the 55-60 knot range. Would be nice to get a decent NE quad pass to see if this is actually a hurricane.
  11. Last VDM had the eye down to 4nm but still open to the SW We'll see how long Marco can hold up against the shear and dry air to it's west.
  12. Upper level divergence is incredible right now. I can't even imagine what the rain rates underneath some of those intense cells are like. Key thing to watch for today is whether or not the center is able to skip south of the Cuban coast like the UKMET thinks. Wouldn't be shocked to see the NHC up it's intensity forecast later today.
  13. Today is their day off given the amount of missions they have in the past few days. Back in tomorrow (when this is likely over Hispaniola lol)
  14. The HWRF has been hot garbage over the past few days and really shouldn't be used until this system has a tight core. Posting this kind of stuff is basically weenie hype at this point. Laura is a hop and a skip away from being an open wave (again)
  15. Recon not finding any impressive pressure readings so far. Still might be an open wave at this point.
  16. Looks like the GFS wants to bring down another TUTT ahead of the system behind 97L and shear/land interaction eventually kill the system off. Pretty notable changes with regards to TCG in general, but we're still a long ways out from knowing is this has a shot at surviving past the islands. 97L should have a pretty decent environment in the Western Caribbean later this week, but we'll see it if it can slow down to take advantage of it.
  17. 00z Best Track came in with 80 knots right before the new pass AL, 05, 2019083000, , BEST, 0, 228N, 680W, 80, 978
  18. Looking pretty healthy tonight. Would love to see if recon finds any substantial changes. One would think that the EWRC is over at this point.
  19. Raw text has it as well. NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32 0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43 1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68 0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75 1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82 0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40 1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39 0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28 1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28