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mreaves

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Everything posted by mreaves

  1. Hot off the presses from BTV. If I get the 15" shown, it will put me at 93" on the year.
  2. You sure that wasn't just the diapers in the trash?
  3. In Brattleboro? Meh, not so much. J/K. We call that area the Banana Belt of VT.
  4. Come on up, you can help me with snow removal. Think of it as one of those vacations that people from cities took in the 1800s to "work" on farms.
  5. Wunderground is spitting out 15” Friday night and Saturday.
  6. They both really screw Mitch. Lol
  7. This thing is going to be a replay of almost every other storm we’ve had here this winter, 8”-10” of wet, heavy snow that’s a ball buster to clear.
  8. 2015-16 was worse in almost every way. There are more than 100 clubs grooming snowmobile trails across the state and I think there was less than 8000 miles groomed that year. The final numbers aren’t in yet for this year but it’s much more than that. It’s over 100,000 in a normal year. This year is probably more frustrating though.
  9. They ran out of helium because they had a big party and used it for party balloons
  10. I think its a 10% chance of verifying in the range with the maximum amount at specific locations but I'm the last person that should be attempting to explain that.
  11. Here is the latest from BTV
  12. BTV hitting the uncertainty Concerningly the latest ECMWF came in very wet (snowy) with storm total QPF in the 1.7" to 2.4" range across most of Vermont, and about half of its ensemble members do have greater than 2" in south central Vermont. This dramatically wetter idea than other global models may be tied a quicker development of a strong upper jet Friday night, and subsequent phasing of the northern stream and southern stream systems, leads to a deeper and more westward coastal low track on Saturday. Given these differences, there unsurprisingly is a large and unfortunately growing spread in our low end and high end snowfall amounts; as an example, Newport, VT, currently has a mostly likely amount of 8" with low end of 3" and high end of 20". Part of the challenge, especially farther south, will be snow ratio forecasts. The snow ratios are rather uncertain similar to snow amounts when you look at the spread amongst model guidance, particularly during the daytime on Saturday. The interquartile range in the NBM snow ratios in a swath from the Adirondacks eastward across central Vermont is about 5:1 to 12:1. Obviously, the lower snow ratio end, if it is all in the form of snow, would be a very wet snow. Currently we are indicating a mix of rain and snow during the day in the valleys locations in this region, which is why snow ratios are even lower at times. Looking at forecast soundings in this area, while strong upward motion will likely be co-located with the snow growth zone, it will be located more than 10,000 feet above ground while a nearly isothermal and relatively warm layer exists close to the surface. Depending on how warm the boundary layer gets, it is reasonable to expect snow character to indeed transition from average to wet by Saturday morning. However, there then will be a period of time late in the event that snow character should trend drier, and the model spread greatly decreases Saturday evening with a 10:1 or higher snow ratio favored. The question is how much liquid will be fall in the wetter snow. Hopefully we can answer that question as we get closer to the event to help predict snow load impacts.
  13. If that map plays out, and I know it's not likely, it puts me just over 100". I don't have long term records but between the old KMPV obs and the average annual snowfall maps that BTV puts out is right at average. This would be the worst "average" year ever.
  14. I'm at 1250' and there is only the 1.5" I got from the last squall that went through.
  15. Winter Storm Warnings up. Pretty wide range the low end and high end potential. 3" - 18" where I live.
  16. Most of my driveway has melted off.
  17. The Shohei Ohtani story is nuts. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/explaining-gambling-scandal-after-shohei-ohtanis-interpreter-accused-of-stealing-millions-from-dodgers-star/amp/
  18. I think @AstronomyEnjoyerhad the remnants of one of those in some pictures he posted.
  19. This is what Wunderground is printing out for me.
  20. Not quite the same here but close.
  21. I've heard that 89 has gotten nasty at times.
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