OSUmetstud
-
Posts
16,521 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by OSUmetstud
-
The 00z Canadian and ECMWF both have the 500mb low over New England, it's the GFS, if anything that looks like a bit of an outlier.
-
Speaking from myself, it's really difficult to integrate the new ECMWF into an early morning forecast. The ECMWF comes out late, which means that you would have to wait to do your grids until the last minute, which often isn't reasonable. Here, we here need to issue a good chunk of our forecast by 330 AM local, the ECMWF starts coming out around 215-220 AM local.
-
The ULL can go a bit north but you need good dynamics if it does.
-
Well it's still north of both. It's more subtle between 00z and 12z.
-
This run is also a bit faster.
-
It's north of the both the 00z and 06z ensemble mean.
-
I think tidbits only offers GFS soundings. Pivotalwx is really a sounding go to as if offers mostly everything, including rdps, gdps, and ecmwf which has only been difficult to find. I like BUFKIT but given pivotalwx's info, it's becoming a bit less cutting edge than it used to be imo.
-
Yeah, there was a slight shift south from 00z.
-
It's only looking at the sondes, maybe that's why? I wouldn't expect a huge model difference in verification at 24 hours with 500mb heights.
-
Yeah, but RMSE is only one statistical measure. There's less variability in 500mb heights during the summer so thus RMSE is lower. But in terms of model skill, winter has more skill. Wavelengths are longer and disturbances are stronger and more trackable. Also, less convection.
-
That is a poor trend on the GFS as of late to be the worst verifying model at 500mb at 24 hours over north america. It appears to be right around the upgrade.
-
The Canadians run North American RMSE 500mb heights vs. radiosondes which is a slightly different way to look at error. (The smaller the number the better)
.png.0f7a70eebe1b693c4ecc6c873bb1f6ff.png)
-
I don't believe EMC is is skewing stats. They wouldn't be showing the sub-par performance of the GFS model generally if they were. Maue is definitely agenda-driven.
-
Latest 06z probs.
-
Im not sure what skill metrics, but the EMC model verification page still has GFS ahead by a slim marginal on standard NH variables.
-
I think that's right, they did a model upgrade recently. I was told by someone in the Gander office that eventually the GDPS will replace the RDPS.
-
Yeah I saw. Decent signal on the eps.
-
Geeze....another one lol.
-
That's low track anomalies. Its favorable for sne in phase 7.
-
Some support here.
.gif.04a1dc5ee615d149183032ce2d4771a8.gif)
-
I didn't measure but there was anywhere from 5 to 7" here before a brief changeover to rain.
-
Lol really well... In all seriousness they're searching for a kid who left during the blizzard to go to his friends out in the bay and they can't find him.
-
Also, I feel like the 15-22' on the ground already makes a huge difference to the general look of the event.
-
I actually just talked to Jordan who took the Mt. Pearl 93 cm ob. He's very reliable. He said 78 mm/3.06"
-
I haven't seen anything solid yet, there was a 3.4" reported by the Paradise Cocorahs but his obs seem questionable at times. That qpf seems high to me given the feel of the snow out there. I was thinking more than 10:1 but less than 15:1.
