OSUmetstud

He wants a better and more equitable distribution plan. Stop being silly.

Don't make me post the exponential growth chart again.

Yes, but you don't get a positive test the second you get symptoms. You have to schedule the test, then wait for the results, then it gets logged. So positive cases today are probably infections from like 2 weeks ago.

I'd be surprised if we have actually seen much in the way of positive tests yet from any election celebrations. It's kind of on the early side. This is all just sustained exponential growth. Just look at the chart.

Maybe. The exponential hasn't changed much the last two weeks. It's been 1.14-1.16. Nothing is exact, but it gives a good idea of where we are headed if we don't do anything different. At current rates, we'll see 2K/deaths per day on average in about 25 days.

It's not an instantaneous spike from the election parties. Everything contributes. The Rt is relatively consistent the last few weeks. It's just gradual and sustained exponential growth. People have a hard time process exponential growth, but that's what this is. https://www.msightly.com/covid-19/details.php?documentID=Rt by State&documentName=Rt by State&eventID=8001&category_id=COVID-19 Testing&category=COVID-19 Testing&objectID=258

lol @wolfie09 Rapid fire political articles.

Yeah, that too, but capacity issues contributed. Sounds like things are peachy and completely under control in El Paso.

Capacity means more than just physical beds. Capacity was reached in NYC. Doctors and nurses there were overwhelmed and had to care for far more patients than is ideal. Did you forget they sent patients back into nursing homes rather than using the comfort? It's one of the reasons the IFR there was a bit inflated compared to elsewhere. https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/el-paso-county-judge-extends-stay-at-home-order-until-dec-1-as-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-climb/ State health and emergency management agencies have deployed more than 1,350 medical workers to the El Paso area, the governor’s office shared Wednesday. An alternate care site set up last month will expand from 65 to 100 beds by Friday. The new resources are in addition to three Air Force medical specialty teams deployed by the Department of Defense last week and six Auxiliary Medical Units from the state.

Given the hospitalizations are about the same level as early April as still rapidly increasing, it's not surprising that localized areas are having capacity issues. Especially given that there is not an equal distribution of covid infections and health care.

It's a not a deceiving number. There's over 300 patients in the ICU and over 1100 in the hospital from COVID in El Paso County. That's per capita just slightly higher than the NYC rate in April.

You meant to quote pickles. I didn't say this lol.

Try harder.

Yeah, I mean there's still some disagreement on the percentage, just like there's plenty of disagreement on what percentage of people are actually asymptomatic. The viral loads peak either the day before or the day of symptom onset. It seems like the really infectious window is fairly short, maybe only 3 to 5 days. There seems like there should be an effort to test all the staff daily nationally so that it has less of a chance of getting in these nursing homes.

I see a lot of fear of total economic collapse and communism from the right. Not sure it's any difference or more appropriate than total fear of covid.

Not this many. There's 50k pneumonia and influenza deaths on average per year. This year there's been 357K Covid, influenza, and pneumonia deaths.

I mean pre-symptomatic. I should have specified. Not pure asymptomatics. There still seems to be considerable evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission (just like flu, actually). The CDC still believes 50% of transmission is occurring pre-symptomatically. The serial interval and the incubation period are basically the same, for example. I'm all for the Michael Mina approach.

That's what I thought NY State implemented pretty soon after the first big wave, but I'm not sure how widespread the policy nationally. Logistically speaking, it does seem extremely difficult to keep the disease out of nursing homes. The same thing is happening in Europe now, too. Community Spread == Nursing home spread

No. I don't believe that's happening anymore and hasn't happened for some time. I know folks want to blame the big state governors for a lot of the early nursing home deaths, but what's the excuse now? Unknowing and asymptomatic staff bringing it into facilities has always been the major driver imo.

Yes it sucks. It really does imo drive the point home than we are all interconnected and it is extremely difficult to shield/protect the vulnerable inside and outside nursing homes when there is large amounts of community spread.

We're still doing a piss-poor job of protecting these places.

The vulnerable are trying to quarantine as much as they can, but time and time again we see that large amounts of community spread "drips" down to the vulnerable folks. Nursing home covid deaths are still very high, even now, after all we know. And people in nursing homes represent a small fraction of the vulnerable people in the United States.

That was Dr. Michael Osterholm's suggestion btw. He's one of the folks on Biden's Covid Team. He works at CIDRAP in Minnesota. He's got a weekly podcast, very smart man. Also, really apolitical, too.

Come on man? I hope you switched up your percentage sign there.