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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. That model average is showing 2.7 or 2.8c. That would be close.
  2. The 500mb low is too far west on that jamstec composite to be favorable. The flat ridging in eastern Canada is a downstream reaction to the strong goAK low. It's not a real nao. The northeast is warm. Not saying it will break that way, just saying what it shows.
  3. The official monthly numbers based on the other data set only show a .11c difference.
  4. Nino 4 is only about .1c warmer for Sept than 1997. This is via the official data.
  5. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_09_2015/post-3027-0-28298300-1443541819.png There's been approximately 30 degree shift east in the warmest anomalies in the past two months.
  6. I'd say -ao -nao +pna neutral or slightly positive epo.
  7. This much more of a +pna pattern than a -epo. Take a look at the pna composite. Looks way closer to that depiction. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/pna.composite.gif
  8. There doesn't have to be a -epo in the means to get a trough in se/MA. You would think that one would see colder air barreling into the northern tier of the US (Midwest/plains) in a neg epo. The Midwest and plains are warmer than normal on that map.
  9. Dude there is negatives also where this negatives in a positive epo. Also there is positives south of the low where there is positives in a positive epo.
  10. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/epo.composite.gif
  11. that's a 500mb anomaly map. Look at the loading phase of a positive epo.
  12. Look. I'm talking about what's there not what u think will happen. That appears to be a weakly positive epo in the 500mb djf forecast map.
  13. I fail to see cross polar flow. You'd want the low further west to open up the arctic.
  14. That forecast map above looks like a positive epo to me. Doesn't mean it would be a bad look though
  15. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/epo.png
  16. What's the average of the epo been this summer? It looks like it averaged about neutral through the summer via the cpc.
  17. The greatest anomalies have shifted east over the last month and a half. Fact not opinion.
  18. You said 4 has gone up just a couple posts ago. Get it straight.
  19. I'm not so sure about that. The greatest anomalies have shifted east through 3.4 and 3 look at the link. You immediately started talking about the changibility in 1 2.
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