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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. Those mike ventrice corrected ensemble probabilities for hurricane force winds in nyc look to be working out really well.
  2. They found 106 kt sfmr in the ne eyewall on latest pass not sure if theyll increase the winds on the next forecast.
  3. Its a closed wall on recon at 38 nm. U really need to stop.
  4. Yeah i think this is true. I feel like things got worse for san juan with the new dominant oew not better.
  5. Of course they didnt get 5 winds at landfall since it wasnt a 5...
  6. They were removed enough from the landfall location that the wind should have weakened by the time the maximum winds reached them.
  7. These probabilities seem incredibly unrealistic
  8. I highly doubt san juan got cat 4 winds. 2 and 3 most likely. Elevated sections of eastern pr got 5 winds...but top end sea level winds die out very quickly out away from marine exposure in the ne eyewall.
  9. Give its the nws theyre probably tayloring the impacts to follow the nhc track forecast?
  10. Third latest to 59f/15c ever, finally got there today. Hit about 65. It's been a brutal late spring. And no to snow. It's not even remarkable for yyt to report snow in June. There's been 5" events in June. How about snow for Halifax in June?
  11. faint green glow to the northeast. Didn't even know anything was going on tonight so no confirmation bias lol. Kp is 5 and the map shows it pretty close so I don't think I'm seeing things.
  12. christ..my heart sank for a minute. overall, pretty funny though after you get over the initial shock
  13. I didn't feel like a fish out of water when I left SUNY Oswego to work in Bermuda...synoptic 1 and 2, the forecast game, and the student website all helped hone forecasting skills. However, I still learned a hell of a lot about forecasting while working in Bermuda for 3 1/2 years. Isohume is right that forecasting is a bit of an art. This is why knowledgeable amateurs can occasionally outforecast meteorologists.
  14. If at some point in the future vets are so numerous that they completely block out all non-vets from being considered, then I'd consider a change in policy. Right now, that just isn't even close to the case. It seems like vets do block some of the panels...but probably not most...and definitely not all. Experience still does matter in vets vs. non-vets. If a vet is just a vet with a BS met degree..he would not make GS-09 grade. Therefore, non-vets at GS-09 would still be considered on equal footing to a vet or vets that were referred at GS-07 and GS-05. The MIC is not required to choose a vet in a case like that. For example, I was referred to Spartanburg, SC and Charleston, WV at GS-07 and GS-09, but not at GS-05. Vets were qualified at GS-05 so they were referred, while non-vets at that grade were not. Gold candidates at GS-07 and GS-09 were referred to the MIC.
  15. I don't have a problem with the way vets preference is done. Each and every one of has a choice of joining the military and serving in a forward area and putting your life on the line. This is a policy wherein the government gives back to the vets for their sacrifice. If you don't like it...you can sign up tomorrow and get your vet preference in a few years. Now, I think there certainly is some potential for better candidates being overlooked in deference to a veteran...but I think it's a small price to pay. Having a better resume doesn't even really make you a better forecaster, anyway.
  16. not a big deal in the sense I'm not going to b**ch about those who served in war getting preference. several hundred is a little bit of a stretch..the most i've heard is 430...and those tend to be highly sought after east coast locations. Buffalo had 116 last winter. I actually haven't been blocked from the last several applications I've sent in. The downsizing of the Iraq and Afghanistan operations could be concerning for the non-vets trying to get in over the next couple years, though.
  17. just to let you know...qualified vets don't just get the 5 pts. anymore. If there is a few that are qualified at a specific grade...they actually block the non-vets from being considered at that grade. It's not a big deal...but I've been qualified at the gold category for a number of applications but still did not get referred to the local office because a couple vets or more qualified at all three internship grades and blocked the rest of the golds.
  18. there's hardly any damage to W 23rd Terrace St. major damage is found from Gabby St. Blvd and south...2 blocks away.
  19. There was a debris ball on a radar scan at 538...when the tornado looked very near him. I'm wondering if the NWS preliminary storm survey might be off by a few minutes.
  20. some good news for those worried about JoMo...the tornado was strongest after it passed his apparent location.
  21. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cfo/program_planning/doc/FY-2009%20NOAA's%20NWS%20National%20Performance%20Measures%20-%20Graph%20Update.pdf FAR for tornadoes in 2008 was 75%.
  22. think about all the tornado warnings we see compared to the number of tornadoes...much more warnings.
  23. I think the FAR for tornado warnings is higher than 50%. I thought I remember something like 80 or 90%, but I could be wrong.
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