Tatamy

My. Holly has just issued a snow squall warning for eastern PA and western NJ.

Steady snow with a coating on the ground.  29/25

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

A lot of what falls in our region from that run is actually ice.

Moderate snow 3”OTG.   31/30

Steady snow 1” new.  31/29

Steady very light snow 24/21 - light coating on paved surfaces.

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I didn't know the LV is now part of the NYC Metro...…..

Who cares where he posts from??  The issue of timely warnings / advisories applies to everybody.

17 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

MT Holly is dropping the ball IMHO. They overreacted on the winter storm warning two weeks ago, now they are being way too conservative.  Two wrongs do not make it right.  In the LV 6 inches is considered a winter storm warning event in a 12 hour period. Why not a watch issued then?  Why does their map go from 2 inches in Philly to 8 inches in MT Pocono. Err on the safety side for this event This snow will be 180 degree difference from the last storm event as the snow ratios will be much higher as the temps continue to drop as the front has already passed.  Salt will not work on the roads after early Tuesday night. Blowing and drifting will be huge issues which are not even being discussed yet they talk about squalls on Wednesday? What comes with the squalls? I say nasty wind gusts and heavy snow, blowing and drifting. Usually we get squalls when we have bare ground with no snow. When a squall goes through this time, it will be a disaster. The public is not prepared for this in the LV and NJ. Rt 78 will have multiple wrecks. I see it coming. 40 years of weather experience says so.

Based upon the available model outputs the probability of 6”+ snow fall is not high enough to justify a WSW south of the Poconos in the LV.  That is what the NWS is looking at.  Maybe a WWA gets issued later.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

None of the current model runs phase that far south yet. We would need to see some changes in the next few days. That was an example of a more southerly stream TPV phase during this time of year.

It was not even the phasing so much as the incredible bombing and intensification of SLP as it moved NNE along the coast that morning.  My barometer read under 28.60 when it passed where I was at on the north shore of LI.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We need a more southerly phase like 2-2-76 to get a rain to accumulating snow for the coast.

 

Do you really think 2-2-76 is a potential analog for this?

Have just changed over here in Bethlehem Twp. to rain/sleet mix - 32/31.  2” new 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The odd thing about this storm is that the NAM usually agrees with Euro when CAD is in play. This may be the first the NAM was on its own like this.

What are your thoughts regarding freezing rain potential on the north shore of LI into the city based upon the NAM surface projections during Saturday night?

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Sref is at long range but it's really cold with the low further south.

SREF??

3 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Worst I’ve ever seen around here was 1994. Temperature around 25 degrees with heavy rain. Everything was coated with around an inch of ice afterwards. The ice stayed for several days as temps were in the teens by day and single digits at night.

We had a severe ice storm on LI in January 1978.  I have pictures of trees and shrubs in my yard encased in 1-2” of ice.  The pictures are amazing.  I could upload them but because of the file size restrictions on this board I am unable to do so.

2 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I forget what year that was? I moved to my current location in summer 93', so it was after that.

It may have been 2007.

17 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Depends on your definition of region? I have personally watched pretty heavy freezing rain falling with a temp of +3° here.

I have seen an extended period of heavy freezing rain at +12.

I am starting to see some flurries up here in Bethlehem.

Starting to see some flurries here in Bethlehem PA.

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I completely agree with you regarding analog years.  Those years along with 76-77 and 77-78 were tossed out there by numerous people.  Those years are more than 40 years ago. At that time the big concern was about the planet cooling. Those years are going to be biased towards colder weather. We now live in the time of global warming. 

Having lived through the many winters of the 70s and 80s and early 90s I can assure you that there was no bias towards colder weather.  You do know that there was a period of 20 years back then where there were only 4 KU events in the region.  Average annual snowfalls were much less than they are now.

I would go with 2/78 and 1/16.  2/78 was especially dramatic with high winds and low near zero visibility’s for hours on end along with 30” of snow.  1/16 also brought 30” of snow with very high rates.  As dramatic as Boxing Day was its most significant impacts were felt in eastern NJ and places to the north and east of there in the region.  We only had a couple of inches from that one here.

The 35-40 dbz echos near Allentown and Bethlehem PA is a graupel shower mixed with some large snow flakes.  The intensity is way overdone on radar.

There is light snow falling along I81 to the NE of Harrisburg just along and north of the ridge near Fort Indiantown Gap going towards Frackville.  There is also some light snow along western sections of I78 at this time.

11 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said:

What happened in 2010 Jan-March? I don’t remember.

Folks to the north of the city just saw cirrus for most of the biggest storms.  Then we had the storm where the rain/ snow line set up along / near the Hudson River.  Probably one of the biggest screw jobs ever for the weenies in NE.

Light snow at my house in Bethlehem, PA

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those were the only really positive busts that I can remember from the 1970’s and 1980’s. There were just too many negative busts to remember. You knew the snow forecast wasn’t going to pan out when the moon was visible through a thin cirrus layer.

How about Groundhog Day in 1976?  Do you remember that.  That was on a school day.  Woke up to blinding heavy snow, wind gusts estimated to 40 to 60 mph (estimated as my wind instruments were frozen solid) continuous thunder and lightning, and my barometer dropping past 28.60”.  No one ever talks about that one and it was not forecasted either.  Low pressure unexpectedly bombed on an arctic front.