powderfreak

Yeah we saw it a couple weeks ago… no model had 8+” falling in Saint Johnsbury and NEK in 4 hours. The footprint size on that event looks very similar to this one. A county, maybe county and a half? I mean I’d be super impressed if the models started nailing these. Good luck with that though.

It’s just such a small footprint in the grand scheme of things from a modeling standpoint. There were signs there but if you were looking for the GFS and EURO to put a 5-10 spot over one county, not happening. Hopefully someone can pull a foot.

I mean, it’s an extreme mesoscale event about the size of a county. Thats asking a lot from models on that scale. If the entire state of CT was getting 5-10”, yeah that’s a problem… we’ve seen a lot of these small footprint uber-extreme rainfall events the past few years. This one is just hitting a very highly populated area too.

What old school techniques would you have used to forecast this event? Sometimes things just happen but our culture today is always looking for something or someone to blame.

That’s an awesome cross section. Thanks for that.

Today felt worse than yesterday. ASOS registering 7sm vis, so while bad, not close to last summer’s 2sm. Certainly enough for the public to notice and be the talk of the town.

It’s crazy to me that you can just stare into the sun with the naked eye with this smoke. Not sure if you should but not immediately blinded lol. Since I know it’s usually a topic… no post processing there but I did take the photo a stop down below what normally would be called for to limit the light entering the lens and make the sun really pop (but landscape gets darker). Basically under-exposed it slightly. Used the camera settings to my advantage instead of just shooting and then altering it later on the computer.

The past couple days have been wild. Just blood orange sun amid the dark haze. Tonight here…

It is that time of year. The fantasy land blue shading at 850mb. Occasionally the Day 15 progs start showing the results of decreasing sun angle and southward migration of gradients. Obviously this outcome isn’t happening, it changes wildly every 6 hours... but it does start to show the seasonal progression as the calendar continues to move forward. We are at the warm season's version of "The February sun is starting to warm car interiors” right now.

Who installs A/C units in early April again?

No they are actually smaller… like house fly size. We bailed on the dog walk. They looked like flying ants, that type of body. Some were bigger than others though which was odd. Like twice as big.

In your clothing, in your ears, face and hair. This is wild. Millions. No idea what they are. It’s a lot. Wish I could post the video.

We are 79/61 with ++Insects. Visibility is reduced in heavy, heavy bugs.

The GFS is a lot of frontal passages over the next two weeks. The Euro doesn’t look much different. There will be periods of higher humidity ahead of the FROPAs and drier air masses behind them. Its a change towards normal from the Mississippi swamp conditions that seemed to persist for over a month.

Beautiful afternoon in these parts. Smoke seemed to move on after some morning haze. 79/57 COC.

Ha, we are +3.2 for August right now. But interesting pattern change in there from sustained +10s to near normal. Wild that such a swing can only get temps down to within a few degrees of normal (on either side).

70/55 Real nice evening. No bugs.

I’m almost wanting dews back as Kev is insufferable right now . It rains all summer above 70F and we don’t hear a word… he gets a rain shower at 63F and breaks every window in his house.

When was the last time you personally went swimming? Hawaii trip? That post sounds like asking AI to write a country song.

Stay safe everyone, sounds pretty rough out there by some of these posts.

Which is always why I don’t get why Kev fights it so hard. They are coming back. It ebbs and flows. Deal with it. -Cosgrove

Did it not rain when it was humid? So many humid days up here wasted with rain this year.

48F and fast moving showers at the picnic tables. Chilly day up high.

56/55 at local PWS, and MVL at 57/55. Windows open and chilly. Average low is 54F… it continues to be crazy that 50s should be normal this time of year. This feels like a cold night.

Had a few showers earlier but now turning almost squally in nature. Cold pool rains as the ULL vort max swings in. High of 74F and it felt pretty warm during some of the sunny breaks. Now 63F. We all know the ULL climo. I don’t think I’ve watered the garden once this entire summer season.