powderfreak

Equal opportunity storm. Strong easterly flow leading to severe downsloping wind gusts on the west side of the Green Mtn Spine into the Champlain Valley tomorrow. Then the flow flips to westerly and hammers downslope wind into the east slope communities. High Wind Watch for tomorrow night and Monday here after the storm.

The hype also sets folks up for disappointment during the holiday weekend… but then again, most of the folks don’t know the difference between 10”, 12”, 16”. It’s all a good snowstorm and folks are feeling luckily enough to have time off to enjoy it.

Ha, yeah I saw a couple 15-30” forecasts from Josh at MRG and TK for Jay. I’m not sure how one looks at this storm’s guidance and calls for 15-30”… unless it’s just a blanket “it always snows big in the mountains” forecast. Now, 15” over multiple measurement periods isn’t hard to envision… I like a dense 8-12” but if less sleet and this front end performs, along with the backside upslope, I could see a 12-18” outcome for the ski areas over 36 hours with this front end burst. The mentions of 30” as an upper bound is wild though.

Nice little pre-game fronto band up here. A quick 2-3” just south of BTV to Waterbury and I-89 near MPV.

Yeah buddy!

That’s Sunday evening though right? Theres a good shot of frozen QPF in areas of SNE prior to this.

Sounds like this season. Rainy Christmas week. The 00z HRRR was interesting at 10:1. Have to think some of this is sleet coded as snow. The alternative is this on the 3km NAM.

Ha, it probably seems that way.

At 7 feet of depth, does the mountain add another 8-12” to this by Monday? Regardless of totals, a solid 1” QPF shot of snow/sleet to the snowpack will compact things a bit. My thinking is 6-10” total SN and IP. 1.00-1.25” QPF.

Dude... this is going to be bananas. The entire state of Vermont gets inundated during President's Weekend/Week, but it will be acute this season given the snowpack, region wide like 100% open, well-advertised snowstorm, etc. Exit 10 is the epicenter, go north to Stowe, or south to the Mad River Valley/MRG/Sugarbush. Locally, the whole Stowe area is going to be bonkers... the the village in the evening after skiing, the Mountain Road during the morning and afternoon rush hours, the mountain in the powder portal, high winds possible Sunday and Monday. Even so, I'm always happy the vacationers get to experience a snowy/wintry trip. The weather and conditions go to shit for so many holiday vacation periods, the vibe is so much more upbeat when conditions are great and folks are into that winter storm excitement... despite the gong show occurring . The high visitation plus the roads being rough will lead to some super frustrating driving, traffic, even temporary road closures by PD if vehicles can't navigate Harlow Hill... I try to go into it with an open mind and enjoy the chaos.

Does the mid-level warmth come in earlier than expected? We are going to sleet up north, just a matter of how quickly.

Best forcing up the St Lawrence Valley, and across SE SNE. Montreal looks good being just NW of the mid level lows.

Love it. Doubt it.

We spiked to 37F in the valley this evening as soon as the westerly winds kicked up. It’s not melting anything but feels balmy outside. Blowing pretty strong though.

Another 4” today of denser wetter snow. Seemed like more QPF than models had. About two feet in the yard now. Mountain did 6” at 3,000ft.

Just think of how frequently rainy it is in the warm season, afternoon showers and storms ruining warm season activities… it all comes around eventually. Just got into the right mid level temps, prevailing westerly flow, with just enough low level moisture aided by the lakes… over a long period of time.

I know ha, it’s tough giving observations when the forum is split like this. But it’s what’s happening. Aiming for more of an observational approach than a gloat.

Crusty the clown may finally come pay a visit to the snowpack after tomorrow… certainly one of the next two events (Sunday). Net gains for sure, but we haven’t seen any precipitation type but snow for the last 5+ weeks. Of course it’s a holiday/vacation period coming up. The last liquid precip occurred during and just after the Xmas/New Years period. Hopefully Mother Nature can let the vacationers experience the current vibe up here. Just filled in.

What a day.

We just don’t know!

That phrase should be on a T-shirt.

Dog walk scene this evening. Just continues to snow. The -12C to -18C 850mb temps at the ridgelines for weeks on end is putting the DGZ right in the sweet spot for mesoscale precip. Even the synoptic snows have been hitting that best DGZ. Its amazing what a normal, cold winter can do. The Mansfield stake data indicates a weak La Niña provides the most consistent snowfall seasons, though the data set only goes back to 1954. There is probably a reason why though, even with randomness. Northern stream over southern stream?

&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 620 PM EST Tuesday...Main focus of this update was to try and depict the stationary front and associated heavy snow that has stalled from southern St. Lawrence County, across Burlington, and out to the Northeast Kingdom. Models do not have a good handle on this feature, as it was expected to slide south through the region easily. It is now stuck here over the forecast area, and it`s hard to say how long it will continue to dump snow on that spot. Best forecast is that it may last through about 10 PM, give or take an hour. Will continue to monitor.

Better to have loved and lost than never at all?

Good west to east boundary across the region right now. Precip keeps reforming west of the bigger terrain barriers along the axis, love to see it. A quick 4” at the Lookout snow cam… there’s maybe an inch of feathers here in town to the east though. Its more from mountain westward to BTV.