powderfreak

Finally a nice night to have the windows open. Low of 42F after midnight but bounced back up into the 50s by sunrise. Thats more like summer sleeping weather.

I haven't looked at the Whites but here in the Greens it looks like a picnic table topper if anything. Looking at soundings for MPV the NAM is coldest and wet-bulbs the 0C to 875mb tonight but then drops to 900mb by 12z....though that's still 3,000-4,000ft and above for snow. GFS is warmer with the 0C isotherm getting down to 850-875mb at its coldest. I think it could whiten the high ridge lines in the Greens (3500ft+), but it could also be just -SN at 34F that struggles to stick even on the rocky summits. Without even looking, I'd assume the Whites and points east will have better UVM and thus some better possibilities of lowering the snow level through dynamics.

We now live in a world where the truth can be whatever you want it to be.

Wishcasting, not modelology. Pattern screams east trend when the column is above 32F.

-5.6 on the month here at MVL through the first 10 days of the month. Cold but can be made up with warmth later on.

That 18z GFS run is insane. That is like half of the entire 16 day run spent below 0C at 850mb for a large part of the northeast. Not bad for May 18th....definitely way over-done but agree with Tip, this is pretty nuts to see an entire run so cold for May. Not just one shot and done, but like re-enforcing shots.

Where are these posts in the winter!? I agree the worst case scenario often doesn't happen, just like it usually doesn't in the winter when it comes to long range progs. You might have the best shot of nice-ish weather...I have my doubts in the mountains of any nice weather with upper level trough overhead.

Say no to heating but can't wait to run the AC 24/7 in late April and early May. You are an interesting cat. That doesn't mean I want it to be 42F like you will reply, but let's just do some 75/45 for a while. That'd be nice.

If those progs are close the peaks definitely will see flakes...even if just transient orographic showers. Now if we can get those cut off lows a bit further east then larger scale more organized upslope precip becomes possible.

Agree with you there... the locals will hike it instead of going to the gym, but the general public is well out of it by April.

Yeah love me some 40s and rain over the current low dew, mild temp days. So much more to do outside recreation-wise and work on the hill is so enjoyable in the cold rain.

Chasing butterflies wearing Daisy Dukes until October 15th in Tolland...that is if he can leave the air conditioned climate.

Yeah it's incredible. What an impressive tree. The time scale is crazy...nature does some pretty damn cool stuff.

What were 850s during the April heat of 2003?

It's that time of year when some forecast one thing and one thing only. Any day sunnier or warmer than expected will be AWT until October 15th, lol

Same here.

I was thinking that reading your post.....it's crazy what even green up can do to temps. Maximize the H85 temps before that.

That period did really nothing for us up here, grasshoppers with patience are still waiting lol.We know the Sultan of Frigidair will sniff out any potential well in advance.

When are you ever down on a possible snowstorm?

If it was a deep uniformed easterly flow with no inversion as I think Will mentioned earlier, you'd definitely have an unblocked flow. Probably centering the heaviest QPF over the crest with equal amounts on east and west slopes, or maybe even favoring the lee side a little bit due to the strong wind causing drift. But then you'd see a very sharp QPF gradient as you got to the end of that spill over.

That thread is a good one with the amount of uncertainty even as it started. Those are always the fun ones to re-read. No one is really sure what's about to happen.

It's funny knowing your posting style now after the past three winters of big storms and snow, and posting back in 2011-2013 until Feb. like a complete reversal in the winter threads with confidence now. I'm going the exact other way, haha. I was confident after 2010-2011 winter, and even '11-'12 wasn't as bad here as elsewhere with a couple big events (upslope). The past few winters I've definitely been getting more and more jaded and antsy for a good run. January 2014 was the worst for me haha.

Fascinating. I don't know what the distances are around those parts, but very cool that the west slope of the ORH/Tolland Hills (eastern CT Valley) had that much more precip from spillover before the more severe effects of sinking air took over. Probably right on the gradient between 3-4" QPF and 1-2" in the valley bottom. Would've been awesome to see in modern days with the amount of CoCoRAHS observers, could plot a very good liquid equiv map.

Jeez.... that's got caking damage written all over it.

Wow that's some moisture. How'd Moosup do?