powderfreak

Oh I think you are right...wasn't a comment about your PBP but more that this seems to be a theme a lot. Models will show a west solution then within the final 12-24 hrs it keeps burping east. There must be something in the model algorithms that cause them to wrap these systems up too early, when in reality they take a little longer to really go to town.The further north it gets helps me. If it could go NNE instead of NE, it's definitely helps up here.

Haha I reread a thread from Jan 2011 where that poster wxwatcher from SNH lost it on Messenger for all the east trend posts...because basically anyone west of ORH was becoming afraid of only seeing flurries with every RUC run that "ticked east." Then they got buried out in GC with a deform band later in the thread, so who knows.In this case though I think the east trend has to be watched. There's too many meso models way east, though it would suck to see the King fall on it's face to the GFS or something lol.

Many a classic snowstorms for SNE involve the Messenger east trend posts. No idea why it happens, but it happens often enough. Always a tick east, tick east, tick east. Wouldn't be a snowstorm without your analysis.

Not deep down...right on the surface of my mind I hope the Euro's right . But its sort of relaxing to watch a storm with absolutely nothing at risk. Just call it and comment as I see fit with no agenda. Of course I'd rather be looking at a bullseye, but it is refreshing not to have anything at stake and just watch without freaking out over little things.

NYC is getting pretty lucky with that narrow band of snow. That may save them if some of the eastern solutions are correct. It looks like just north and south of the city hasn't gotten much of anything though.

I love the east vs. west....north vs south...NE vs. SW...etc battles that go on in here during these storms while jockeying for jackpots and hardest impacts.

Yes, they moaned their way into a *FORECAST* for 24-36".

This is one the most fascinating nowcast I can remember. The stakes are huge. There's the EURO/NAM, and RGEM/GFS/HRRR/RAP.

Haha, yeah like the RAP at 18 hours out. I would've expected a much better H7 presentation than wrapping dry air in and split omega. That should be a wall of high RH and omega jamming from NYC through New England up into Maine.

Yeah its puzzling...the RAP doesn't even get the deform band to ORH through 18 hours.

Wow... 10mm is like .4" and 20mm is .8" ect... but that's really quite low from Tolland-ORH and west. Like 0.8" QPF for Tolland and west.

That's a new one. Big storms always bring out some interesting models haha.

It was only out to that at the time, haha. don't worry, we know you guys are getting big snow.

Haha you seem worried when you are trying to pass off negativity/disappointment on others.

18z NAM QPF... two large metro areas just destroyed. A Tolland County nightmare. The NYC battle is amazing... EURO and NAM going big, a lot of other models going quite low.

Well the NAM looks like the EURO as far as banding goes.

Compare the latest SREFs to the EURO... lol. Not even close. I can't believe the SREFs have gotten this bad inside of 24 hours.

Wow at the 18z NAM from NYC to BOS. That crushes NYC. IMO, that'll be the most interesting aspect of this storm right now...although no one in here probably cares, there's a fascinating war going on about how much snow falls in the United States' largest city. TWC showed an RPM run that gave NYC 3-5", and then showed the EURO with 2 feet. Covering it all.

I can't even find a GFS ensemble members or even a SREF ARW member that shows that much precip reaching the ALB-BTV longtitude. Something funky happened in that run.

EURO rots the deform band up here. That's ridiculous and I toss. You can see how it lingers QPF up here for several panels. Anyway, hard numbers are 1.4" for Lewiston and 1.7" for Laconia, 1.0" for MVL. I'll eat my hat if Dryslot only gets 0.4" more QPF than up here. That was a bizarre run.

So as I see it for up here... NAM...0.2" GGEM...0.15" GFS...0.4" UKMET...0.1" ECMWF...1.0" The King is either a hero or it falls really hard.

Yeah I'm not sure what to do with that. Nothing else has more than 0.4" of QPF.

That hour 24 map is save worthy for you guys.

What the heck just happened? It's got a foot of snow up here and all other models have 2-3".

WTF... 1.0" QPF up here. Are you f'ing kidding me?!