powderfreak

lol... less than 2 weeks ago it was “glad we don’t live up north where it’s cool...we torch and we beach.” I’m sure the beaches are even better in September with less people. I do think School season starting for many is the true mental switch flip. Even though nothing else changed, it’s like heat and beach one day and then a couple days later its time for highs in the 50s and pumpkin lattes the next day.

48F rainy days vs 74F and sunny....

Also on the GFS... Tue/Wed are below normal temps up here.

Running through the temp anomalies, the latest GFS and EURO seem to have the greatest warmth relative to normal in the Ohio Valley. There are cool shots mixed in up here in the northern tier, or at least some below normal SFC-850 temps mixed in with the above normal stuff. Seems like we’ll be right on the edge of a true prolonged torch that will happen to the S/SW of us.

Seemed to happen several times this summer between here and SNE. Gradient pattern, ha.

lol, it’s almost like some want people to go into outrage because of a mild pattern. I sense some annoyance that people aren’t pissed because it might be 80F in late September.

Some hilarious reading this morning. Anyway, should do a 40 degree diurnal change today. 33F to 73F type stuff. It’s the season of using the heat in your car in the morning, then the A/C when you drive home from work that afternoon.

33F, some frozen dew on the car but fog saved a hard frost.

41/37 at TAN as of 9:25pm... that’s impressive. NE flow low dew air gets it done.

You do have to love the COC weather. WFO BTV does for sure. Afternoon forecast discussion...Chamber of Commerce weather continues this afternoon under deep layer ridging bridged across the northeastern quarter of the nation.

43F now at the local PWS. MVL at 45F as of a half hour ago. Almost a 20 degree drop in 2 hours. You know it’s a boring pattern when rad cooling seems interesting.

Yup into the upper 40s now in Stowe. Feels like one of those nights where it’s in the 30s by like 9-10pm.

Why doesn’t the eastern slopes of the Berks have a frost advisory but the CT Valley/Springfield does? You’d think a lot of those hollows and ponds sitting at 1,000-1,400ft will certainly frost on those east slopes before the I-91 corridor... or is BOX protecting itself from CEF and BAF getting low while literally no one else in that river valley does? Deerfield River Valley, places around Beckett, Worthington, etc it literally any place with higher hills around it could certainly frost in that east slope.

9F drop in 25 minutes now. 63F to 54F from 5:55 to 6:20pm. Warmth leaving the surface like there’s a vacuum overhead.

Calm in Stowe too. Car said 54F pulling in at home a couple min ago. Looks like MVL lost 5F in 6 minutes as the shadows crept over the ASOS.

Montpelier ASOS down to a dew of 30F. Dry air mass and not a cloud in the sky... Radiators mount up tonight.

Crazy, ASOS here had a north wind and dew of 45F only 2 hours ago. Then it went NE wind and dew plummeted from 45F to 33F in those two hours with the wind shift. Reinforcing shot of dry air.

Tonight is going to be cold. 59/33... that’s MVL’s lowest dew of the season. Yesterday had dews of mid/upper 40s and got to 40F min, today dews are going to be around freezing this afternoon.

Yeah I remember the early years for me on the List-Serve there was a crew that lived up there. Even when we were looking, the prices were extremely reasonable for what they accessed, and the snowfall. Being able to document that and collect data on the location would be such a fun experience, ha. It just snows all winter and you have to be dedicated, but a few good seasons of observations would be amazing to have. And yeah, living in Richmond/Jonesville, the only place to buy anything closed at 8pm and that was a pint-sized Cumberland Farms gas station. On top of that, we got downsloped to death in any synoptic event because the prevailing moist flow in those is usually out of the SE. We downsloped severely off 4,000ft Camels Hump down to 300ft (in a relatively short distance)....with no terrain past us to slow the flow. It was just Champlain Valley flats for the winds to run out into. The one I remember was in February 2010... the storm was sneaking up on us, and it started snowing steadily but just had trouble accumulating. I was driving in for the snow report and woke up to 6" or so I think. Heading out and turning east on RT 2, I remember running into what looked like double digit snowfall passing your area by the underpass with I-89. Twice what I had.

Saturday/Sunday/Monday look pretty damn warm. MOS is flirting with 80F on Sunday up here, and I bet Sun/Mon have the larger departures because of the high mins.

This month's departures so far... like clockwork that BTV starts the month with a +2 departure over the other stations. Burlington and Montpelier have seen remarkably consistent 2 degree difference all summer in departures. MVL has been a little less but once we get into winter, the differences can increase to 3-degrees of departure difference with the snowpack differences from Champlain Valley to east of the Spine. You'd think it would be baked into climo already but the departure differences definitely show something else going on. It's been years now of 1.5-3 degree departure differences. BTV... -0.5 MPV... -2.5 MVL... -2.0 Chilly first half of September though, as anything below normal in the means at BTV is a big deal these days.

We tried so hard to rent a condo up there right out of college...ended up in Jonesville which was the exact opposite effect. Great location for going to recreation, but bad snow climo. Those homes up at BV are really pretty cheap but man, driving that access road from 300ft to 2,300ft every day would do a number on your vehicle. I'd deal with it in order to live in that weather that 2,000+ feet brings. I bet both places average about the same amount of snow. There might be some slight event to event differences but both spots are literally on the slopes of the Spine so I don't think they'd see a ton of variation from westerly flow or easterly flow. Those precipitation differences to me seem to become more noticeable once you get a few miles out (on either side) from the Spine.

It's coming along and does vary from hillside to hillside. It's still 50% or more green, IMO on the whole. The green has changed to a lighter green and almost yellow-green through, with some red and orange patches starting to show. Here's a view of the early color in the Notch.

Christmas Day 2019? Ha.

Yeah agreed those totals are pretty safe. So many things came together, including temps and ratios to produce those totals. That same pattern in a warmer environment (say March) with dense 8-10:1 ratio snow might have left that as a 60-70” period... vs 100”+. Just an incredible combo of factors.