powderfreak

Those numbers fit with the overall thermal trends over the past several years. Climate change is a loaded phrase, I’m not trying to make a political statement when I mention warmth. I think scientifically it’s interesting to see the current decadal trends. Our snowfall is going to be there; a +4 is still cold enough to snow in the winter. In fact, a lack of cool/dry air masses likely increase cold season precip… but the retention is a metric that takes a hit by a higher mean temperature. The higher elevations will be less prone to this change, the elevations that are still spending the longest time below 0C throughout the season. -13C or -3C… it’s below freezing. Down low it can be tougher to sustain a deep pack.

Yeah it’s the same up here. Everyone shows up this weekend and it’s always past peak. Every year.

It’s 100% past peak on Mansfield so I’d expect the same in the Whites. Its peak in the 500-1800ft range here locally.

GFS and GGEM both look fairly similar for the usual upslope prone mountain terrain. Pittsburgh, NH jacks?

Some of these runs have a pretty potent upslope look. I know that gets everyone jazzed too.

Yeah that’s why some of us are like wow this is impressive. It’s recalculating upward and still struggling to get to that normal. Its not doom and gloom, it’s just something that’s happening and when weather is boring, that’s what we have… temp talk lol.

Very bummed we are clouded over. Stable OVC039 to OVC043 obs from the upslope trapped stratus.

Still way to cloudy up here to view the Northern Lights. Should be a banger tonight for some areas. Breezy upslope flow though keeping us socked unfortunately. Was still getting some drizzle an hour ago. Rare very low diurnal temp swing today for us... low of 44F and max of 48F.

It’s a good microcosm of society today… social media has led to hyperbolism to the n-th degree. There’s no middle ground, pick sides and stay with it. Life is a team sport now, ha. Every time you say something it needs to be a bit wilder and out there than the last time. I mean this post I’m writing wouldn’t have even been allowed to happen 10 years ago … off-topic, bounce it.

One person said HubbDave may frost and another post quoted a NWS risk of a more widespread frost? That translates to everyone in SNE expecting a frost?

Killington is sort of like CNE? It's like Winni latitude. Not sure how many 3k elevations are south of there. Monadnock?

Doom and gloom if you like cold and snow. That's the important part. The assumption is you do enjoy cold, snow, winter. I honestly can't blame people who are beaten down though. It's been a tough few years for some folks on here. And it is getting warmer. I mean, we haven't seen a below normal month up here since last November. But it still is going to snow, it's just interesting to me how much warmer than normal it seems to be on average. Though I totally get people see that as doom and gloom; that's not what I'm trying to do. I'd talk about it the same if we were below normal every month since last November.

I hear, ya. I know you are dreading it. Cheer up, it's snowing at 3k feet .

lol I am starting to worry about your mental health. Everything is like a wet fart.

Better mid-level lift was down south of here. We largely saw super cooled water droplets at 29F and decent icing. Mansfield is all iced up with a trace of snow.

They'll go for it if they can for sure. I think central and southern VT are going to get the best snow this evening now. Vort max is a bit south. However, up north here we should see a bit of upslope response as the core of the cold comes in on NW flow.

Using the former Mansfield COOP, where "new" snowfall records ended in 2018 when WCAX stopped having a human up there 24/7... there's been traces of snowfall in late August up there. In 1986, 4.0" fell on September 16th. That's the earliest like legit snowfall. I will say, I don't think there was any real accumulating snow in September in the 2000s. The average date has been moving later and later, with the past 20 years seeing first trace or higher happening in October. Now that doesn't mean there weren't quick passing snow showers though, like what was caught on video at Jay. But it seemed to be a thing that happened with some semi-regularity 40-50 years ago, accumulating in September. Another thing is like, there's probably plenty of early season snow showers like that, which weren't seen or recorded. That Jay snow shower was wild, because it probably precipitated for only 10 minutes, if that. And just happened to be someone there with a phone. It could've happened on any number of peaks too and not be caught. I often think of that with regards to weather observations. Before there was social media and cell phones who can capture video, upload it immediately, etc... no one probably heard about these things in the past. They definitely happened, but that's why the Mansfield COOP data was so important. It was a stable daily reporting cadence at 4,000ft by a human. And why the MWN observatory is so important to continue. Today... without a cell phone and in the right place at the right time, would we have seen the snow accumulation on Mansfield? What about if I wasn't able to capture video of it this evening to share? Not it's like "pics or vid or it didn't happen." Technology makes observations of transient weather so much better today. This stuff happened back in the day, earlier in the season too, but it's hard to track those data points. I miss the Mansfield COOP daily "new snow" reading for these things.

Thats a crazy velocity scan. Jeez.

Good chance of at least rimed peaks next day or so. Ironically, despite the departures, today was the exact average/mean date of first snow on Mansfield. October 9.

I’m coming down from top of Spruce and it was snowing nicely up there. Not sticking but I was right at the real snow line. You can see in this photo how the visibility changes to that bright white, low vis band where it’s 100% good flakes and snow. It was right around 3,200ft.

I’ve got -SN at 3,100ft.

First snow last night on Mansfield. Snow down to 3,600ft. Currently at 3:30pm we are sitting 35F at both the top of the Quad and Gondola wx stations. Still some outside the windows up at the Cliff House when I was up there late morning.

Remove a little bit of the drip each day until there’s zero precip and it’s sunny.

There's something going on there in the models though. GFS is more amplified. GGEM is more suppressed.

Nice invigorating morning… getting first look at actual snow put a little hop in my step. Love the warm sunny days but still get that child-like feeling of “wow, that’s actually real snow” . Its melting rapidly at 3,600ft. Raining off the roof of the Cliff House.