powderfreak

I do think the extremely dry September is having an effect on the foliage so far. Vegetation seems stressed with more muted yellow/golds and faded oranges. We have some welcomed rains coming in over the next 24-48 hours that hopefully can give the foliage a shot at more vibrancy. Peak foliage is usually the first two weeks of October at most mid-slope and lower elevations, so we still have some time. Either way, it’s still a beautiful time of year and trying to judge the colors year-to-year can be like splitting hairs. Autumn is a soulful vibe regardless. We’ll see where it goes from here.

The closest thing to winter that kid will see all year.

Yeah, I mean whether it’s heating or cooling, if you are financially able to there's really no reason why you shouldn't be comfortable in your own house. I do get the window A/C units, they used to annoy the hell out of me. However, I will say since putting in the mini-splits here... I do not give a f*ck... I'll turn that thing on at least excuse possible. If its a bit chilly, turn it on to add a bit of heat to the living room or bedroom. If I'm a bit warm, I'm turning it on to dehumidify mode or cooling mode. Even at mid-summer peak humidity in July, the cost was so minimal a month to have it cold enough you could wear a hoodie inside while it was 85/70 outside . Central AC is another thing too... quiet and cool. I'd be running that all the time in the summer if I had it.

Rough timing on the aeration but it does look pretty good in that photo… keep those nutrients flowing to the root system.

God bless ya. Doing God’s work.

That is pretty crazy. 1.41" here in September. Very dry but not like the number of stations that have had under 0.5" on the month all the way down to CT. We've had 0.04" in the past 14 days and the past 11 days have registered 0.00". Mostly sunny too for the most part of that. I do think the fall foliage is a bit f*cked without rain. Leaves are drying out and closing up shop without the vibrant pigments we can see. Color will be ok, but this likely reduces the vibrancy.

That makes sense. Gradient leading to increased wind speeds throughout the column. Everything tightens up a bit quicker? This is the type of discussion I remember when first getting into online weather boards. Appreciate the knowledge and deeper meteorology.

Good info. Just trying to visualize it in 3-D… stronger coastal front and then further west better mid-level gradients creating stronger lift to the west? If visualizing a cross-section of the atmosphere… those stronger/tighter thermal gradients in winter (diluted now) create more of a slope to advect that higher theta-e air up and over? That advection leading to more widespread precip on the cooler/W/NW side of the system? Likely more uniform conveyor belts?

Ah ok that deeper convection robbing moisture makes sense to me. A stronger thermal gradient along the coast too. I guess I can see it.

See I would’ve thought drier air inland (take away summer moisture) in winter could’ve pushed the precip gradient even further east, not west? Though mid-level magic might have been put more of a banding structure in Ginxy’s area.

Baroclinic processes would have led to a firehose back to the River in winter? I’m curious to hear a bit more on this. There couldn’t have been a gradient in E.MA in the winter?

What an evening out here. Warm, dry, sunny. Just chillin’ at the overlook right now at 3+kft in shorts and t-shirt in the mild temps.

Crazy, we’ve been in the 70s since 11am up here.

Flood Warning for the Hudson River at KPOU. It hasn't rained near there in 11 days. What am I missing? Edit: Guess I'm missing the tidal effects up there. I had no idea the tide had that much impact on the Hudson that far inland. Flood Warning National Weather Service Albany NY 130 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 && NYC027-111-220530- /O.NEW.KALY.FL.W.0046.240921T1900Z-240924T0410Z/ /PKMN6.1.ER.240921T1900Z.240921T2000Z.240923T2210Z.UU/ 130 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Hudson River near Poughkeepsie. * WHEN...Until early Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...At 4.2 feet, Minor flood stage. Minor flooding of lowlands, boat docks and boat launches. Water covers State Route 213 in Eddyville.

It’s a pretty damn nice day though. I want real fall but San Diego continues onward. 72/54 up here.

Yeah I could've said it with more tact. Yeah, it gets cooler than it was in previous days this time of year, it stirs feelings of autumn regardless of the number. If it was 82F and now it's 69F, it's a step down and that gets the body to thinking of fall. I get it, I can’t wait for some more regular 30s/40s at night and 60s by day.

lol you were in the rain and wind at your place. The obs show that, 50s and NE flow at IJD. No one said you weren’t. It was 10F warmer on the other half of the state. Regardless, it just proves the point that our expectations and “real feel” has adapted with the warmer weather.

Ha just busting your balls, walking outside to 60s in the morning just sounded funny as an example of autumn (anywhere). But yeah our baseline for what constitutes “cool” is so far out of whack now with climate change that yeah, 60s in the morning is a cool refreshing air mass. For context, the normal min at the torch spot of Bradley is 52F, record low is 30F. It was in the 60s this morning.

It’s still like mid-upper 60s by 10am in western New England?

What a month. Two completely different vibes. This is MVL, similar climate to here in that 750ft valley elevation. -1.7F through the 12th. Then a switch flipped and we are finishing our 9th straight day of 80s/50s. That's an incredible streak for up here. Average was 69/44 today.

Wish we could embed with ease again. It’s a two-step process now.

Yes but it always has been. Thats the thing with departures. You can compare areas because their environment is baked into their normals. I’m not sure what you are getting defensive over? lol. It’s been above normal, abnormally mild.

Yes but it’s always been hot. Departures from normal aren’t absolute temperatures.

We are getting our “normal” summer weather now. 82/55 is like normal July up here at MVL… it just doesn’t feel like it because summer has averaged like 87/67 lately. If we get a “normal” mid-summer period one of these years, folks will think it’s cold. Our baseline expectation is so far removed from where it should be.

CPC seasonal probabilities (these maps shouldn’t be called “outlooks”) out today. A lean towards above normal and moist relative to normal. No big risk taking there. That’s the safe play recently… lean AN in temperatures and those positive departures usually come with some moisture in the cold season.