powderfreak

Looks like the lift is way up there... like 400-600mb at MPV.

Probably will see that pic regardless of if it's 2-3" or 7-9" .

I think it is there in the QPF maps.... just not as pronounced. If it's fluffing definitely signs of a rotting band from like 'Dacks through MPV over to LEW. But I bet the band might be even a bit north to BTV-MVL-BML.

If we get those amounts it won’t be wet, it’ll be because of ratios.

Surprisingly have both Gondola and Quad going today. West wind staying just high enough over top. Slamming Spruce though. Full on torch though. Dews were near 50F and breaks of sunshine! Feels like it might be trying to dry out a bit.

I'm outside at the ski area in a t-shirt right now, birds chirping... thinking about days of sunlight until 9pm and hiking with the dog . Ice rink up here looks like we should stock it with trout or something.

Big difference even yesterday from some of the larger wide open exposed fields and more sheltered calm locations. Noticed you can drive by bare fields and then a more woodsy residential area has solid cover everywhere. The larger wind-exposed fields are toasted. I mean, at this point it looks so rough and melted anyway. My yard had standing water on top of the shallow few inches of snowpack left.

Widespread 50s this morning.

Yeah very well laid out and these tend to bump north. Just sometimes in SWFE we also end up with sand falling. I guess maybe could see 0.50" water and 18:1 ratios. Of course it could also continue trending north a bit and we end up more water and lower ratios.

Seems aggressive given data through 12z. No ensembles or models I can see showing widespread 7-10”… then the 18z NAM came out.

Wait what?! Lol.

Expecting some Swiss cheese snowpack by morning in the valley. Just about 6” of total granular water-logged pack. Feels like it has to be 3” of water, like 50% and ripe. You walk on top of it for the most part.

I had to look it up for more clarity... makes sense. Sounds like me when the Red Sox starter is doing well and we start playing bullpen roulette in the 5th inning. "Going on tilt" is when a player becomes enraged about something and starts making ill-advised plays based purely on emotion.

I mean the deep interior gets sick of coastal lows but when areas like 25 miles from waters edge are tired of coastals…

New 12z EURO has this area over to phin/alex and then to dryslot as very much on the "line" for Friday.

51F at SLK at 1,600ft seems like the warm spot right now. Impressive for that spot in February.

Not an ideal headline map. Maybe some freezing drizzle/rain, followed by rising waterways. Cold air this evening funneling down the Champlain Valley.

It isn't ideal, ha. I've got just 5-6" too, with areas under evergreens starting to show grass blades along the Rec Path. The spots where all the snow gets hung up in the trees. Snow seems water-logged after today's above freezing temps. It's ready to melt when it starts raining. I saw J.Spin was still sporting 11" this morning, the Spine axis gets the precip around here. Up by the mountain it's so varied that there are south facing areas going bare and northeast facing spots with a few feet of depth. I'm sure it's just as variable over there.

18z EPS mean…. Still a decent amount of spread in the individual members. The Probability maps liked the Dead Bodies best.

That was a bit different though with a wave riding a frontal boundary and waiting for cold air to come in, while this classic SWFE look has cold in place ahead of it.

Surface cold usually resolves colder while mid-levels go warmer. Agreed with you there.

This shot is incredible. Such cool topography, and dominated by rock/pitch that doesn't like to hold soil.

Pulling for you to jackpot over the rest of the local area down south. SWFE are your bread and butter, you've got climo on your side in this look. That area of N.MA/S.VT/S.NH seems to like to max out on SW wind aloft pumping WAA over top the colder southern extremity of the dense air lodged at the surface.

The irony further north is that BTV is actually doing pretty well there relative to the NNE mtn locations. BTV is one good storm away from near normal while the mountain areas would require quite the pattern to set up.

Absolutely on all of this. We cannot have a great winter without above normal precipitation IMO. We can’t get it done with a couple big storms either like places south. Even a great month won’t do it. A solid above normal NNE mountain winter is a sustained pattern that spans several months. Many of the big years have a “vibe” but it’s less common to see than the times of struggle. There are literally entire winters where 7-day totals seem to be 12-18” for months on end. Sometimes it dips to 6” in 7-days but then there will be periods of 30” weeks. I notice it on the mountain in terms of weekly snow totals. This year has had a lot of days with 1-5” week long totals.