powderfreak

That it does. GFS, GGEM and ICON seem to wrap it up more and have much more significant looking upslope signals. At those backside thermal profiles, even 0.25” QPF can pad stats 4-8” of fluff. That’s what will be needed to get 10-12”+ IMO. Sort of like it’s a 5-7” 10:1 synoptic snow and the upslope is the key to really taking it up to that 10-12”+.

Yeah pretty lame but fits the tenor of the season where it only wants to snow 6-10”.

The ICON is amped with REGGIE and GFS. Not sure that's the basket to put my eggs in.

Yeah I bust his balls sometimes but it’s like going on a ski vacation to the Sierra or Alta… you have this anticipation and want to see what the weather can do. Researched past storms, past winters, etc. You want that taste. Moving up north to higher snow climo is almost the same… you spend time in summer looking over past winters and dreaming. Just need to see it once and then you sort of settle into the “along for the ride” mentality as you spend more and more time somewhere. Get that first monster NNE mountain winter out of the way and it’s like cool, saw that, it happens, can relax a bit, ha. Then you find that vision and dreaming means looking at grassy fields end of February and skiing tilted pond ice when you know the record says it can be much better.

These are not alike.

Lol showed a rainer here yesterday now it goes under. Good to see the energy start to get sampled better. What a run for the Chickens.

That arctic shortwave is getting better sampled for 12z/18z today.

QPF tightening up on GFS.

Awesome, what do you think the liquid is…0.50-0.75” for the pasty snow? That’s great that so many got 4-6” of heavy wet snow. Widespread 0.50” water and higher for that paste of under 10:1 ratios.

The weaker, less phased version has always been a possibility. 12"+ is hard to do... 1"+ QPF as snow is hard to do. Nice moderate snow event on the 00z NAM. Lets cover up the ice and bring anything shovelable to NNE.

Ha, I see the dedicated thread now.

The weaker, less phased version has always been a possibility. 12"+ is hard to do... 1"+ QPF as snow is hard to do. Nice moderate snow event on the 00z NAM.

That place does Winter really well. I feel so far south sometimes and then realize we are compared to up there.

It’s the furthest east guidance. Bretton Woods jackpot for Phin and Alex. Gets snow into NW SNE.

Yeah most of the lift is up higher so it wouldn’t matter much either way, just something to look out for… that wind shift looks to bring the changeover.

I just looked more into the wind/flow and all the snow profile is NW flow behind the FROPA. It’s not like an east flow coastal. 10AM Sat on 18z GFS. You can see the ESE flow is under the warm air at 850mb, not snow profile. Then where wind streamlines go NW behind the front is where it starts snowing. You can see the frontal position in the streamlines. Looks like everyone will need wind to go NW in this to flip to snow. Anyone seeing E/SE flow will be in the warm sector and N/NW will be cold sector. Both here and there, it’ll start snowing when the wind goes NW as the front will be through.

18z GFS did go back west. It’s nail biting, ha. This thing will have one helluva gradient on the SE side.

Or rain right through. 18z NAM was a wet day Saturday. Changes over late here but not ideal. 4pm Sat

My sister had 4.5” out by BGM, said forecast was for around an inch. Pics look nice out there. Seems like a nice Advisory event down south.

Looks a lot more wintry there than here, ha.

That’s a nice looking radar for DIT.

Much better look for Phin’s area than GFS/GGEM. That spreads snows into far NW SNE and Backedge’s spot too. Gives a bit of wiggle room up this way too.

I didn’t want to say specific locations, ha. Trigger warning.

ALB has had 1/4-1/2sm SN the past 60-90 min. Not bad. Should translate eastward?

I’m dying at these exchanges .