powderfreak

Yeah very well laid out and these tend to bump north. Just sometimes in SWFE we also end up with sand falling. I guess maybe could see 0.50" water and 18:1 ratios. Of course it could also continue trending north a bit and we end up more water and lower ratios.

Seems aggressive given data through 12z. No ensembles or models I can see showing widespread 7-10”… then the 18z NAM came out.

Wait what?! Lol.

Expecting some Swiss cheese snowpack by morning in the valley. Just about 6” of total granular water-logged pack. Feels like it has to be 3” of water, like 50% and ripe. You walk on top of it for the most part.

I had to look it up for more clarity... makes sense. Sounds like me when the Red Sox starter is doing well and we start playing bullpen roulette in the 5th inning. "Going on tilt" is when a player becomes enraged about something and starts making ill-advised plays based purely on emotion.

I mean the deep interior gets sick of coastal lows but when areas like 25 miles from waters edge are tired of coastals…

New 12z EURO has this area over to phin/alex and then to dryslot as very much on the "line" for Friday.

51F at SLK at 1,600ft seems like the warm spot right now. Impressive for that spot in February.

Not an ideal headline map. Maybe some freezing drizzle/rain, followed by rising waterways. Cold air this evening funneling down the Champlain Valley.

It isn't ideal, ha. I've got just 5-6" too, with areas under evergreens starting to show grass blades along the Rec Path. The spots where all the snow gets hung up in the trees. Snow seems water-logged after today's above freezing temps. It's ready to melt when it starts raining. I saw J.Spin was still sporting 11" this morning, the Spine axis gets the precip around here. Up by the mountain it's so varied that there are south facing areas going bare and northeast facing spots with a few feet of depth. I'm sure it's just as variable over there.

18z EPS mean…. Still a decent amount of spread in the individual members. The Probability maps liked the Dead Bodies best.

That was a bit different though with a wave riding a frontal boundary and waiting for cold air to come in, while this classic SWFE look has cold in place ahead of it.

Surface cold usually resolves colder while mid-levels go warmer. Agreed with you there.

This shot is incredible. Such cool topography, and dominated by rock/pitch that doesn't like to hold soil.

Pulling for you to jackpot over the rest of the local area down south. SWFE are your bread and butter, you've got climo on your side in this look. That area of N.MA/S.VT/S.NH seems to like to max out on SW wind aloft pumping WAA over top the colder southern extremity of the dense air lodged at the surface.

The irony further north is that BTV is actually doing pretty well there relative to the NNE mtn locations. BTV is one good storm away from near normal while the mountain areas would require quite the pattern to set up.

Absolutely on all of this. We cannot have a great winter without above normal precipitation IMO. We can’t get it done with a couple big storms either like places south. Even a great month won’t do it. A solid above normal NNE mountain winter is a sustained pattern that spans several months. Many of the big years have a “vibe” but it’s less common to see than the times of struggle. There are literally entire winters where 7-day totals seem to be 12-18” for months on end. Sometimes it dips to 6” in 7-days but then there will be periods of 30” weeks. I notice it on the mountain in terms of weekly snow totals. This year has had a lot of days with 1-5” week long totals.

I think it was Tamarack at one point who described NNE winters as this: 2/3 will be below average snowfall and 1/3 will be above average. Average is derived through more “below normal” snow years than “above.” Largely with the high annual averages you need wire-to-wire good winter pattern to get above… but when it happens, it goes bonkers. The more likely probability in any given winter is below average in a weird way. I honestly see that in a lot of the Mansfield season snow tallies since 2000. Even 3 of 4 will be below the mean but the one above winter is way above. Another thing is I do think NNE had a stronger than normal run in like the 2007-2017 period. A lot of the newer or shorter periods of records (Cocorahs stuff) might bias high in that time frame but are starting to mellow out a bit. Like I used to think Mansfield averaged a solid 300” starting at 2000. Now I believe it’s more like 275” after the past 3 winters. With a lot of 220-250” type stuff but then throw in a 375” as the above year and the “average” is higher than the median/mode values.

Yeah that can get out of hand in a hurry. Hopefully it just goes downstream. Here’s an ice jam in the Adirondacks on Feb 18 the other day…from 3 feet to 15 foot level very fast.

Today felt colder than expected. Low-20s at the ski area base and -4F to +24F down in the valley for todays diurnal. More wind than expected too. I thought we’d be more like upper 20s to near 30F.

Nice region wide event. Mass Pike delineation. Plenty of ice with the snow south of the Pike.

Yeah that one is going to rain, looks like a half inch to inch total in some spots.

Welcome to the NNE crew!

Some high-end brief periods of snow/wind. These are days when kids can blow like tumbleweeds through the base area. They assume the athletic stance and enter the white abyss. Trying to keep each other in sight. The video and noise can really give some texture to the scene. Wish I could figure out how to post it from groomer JStaff. The winds were insane with the squalls. Zero visibility stuff even below 2,000ft.

Even Red Sox Stats was tweeting about it, ha. https://mobile.twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1495153092324691983