powderfreak

I think we will have widespread wind issues Monday here.

Light snow has begun.

The positive snow depth maps are the way to go here to visually see the valleys vs mtns. HRRR 10:1 showing 1.50”+ QPF as snow. But depth increase of only 5” tells me it’s full on glop at MVL and under 1,000ft. While the mountains stay 12-24” depth increase. 3KM NAM does the same.

This is a 1,500-2,000ft event for big totals. The QPF is there. If this winter had even been +2 to +4 (instead of +8 to +10), it might have been an incredibly snowy winter up north. There have been so many events that have been a couple degrees away from big numbers. 00z GFS if only we had a cold airmass and 10:1 ratios to the valley floors. Disappointing winter. This is what could have been.

Elevation event coming in based on positive slow depth maps. They are the new snow maps.

Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet. Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase. It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both. Thats the forecasting challenge.

That’s generally what it feels like, mid-April. Snowpack is like it is a couple weeks before closing… not 5 weeks. All we need is some good frozen QPF and normal temperatures and things will last. But can’t keep running back +10 departures. We are +14.1 through the first week of the month. It’s just wild departures continuing since the end of November.

This will be more like grits on a biscuit.

When did that start coming out so early?

Not going to lie, I like what I'm seeing for the elevations. This could go fairly big (12"+ above 2,000ft). Some of these model runs have 2"+ total QPF so it it holds snow at the elevations it's going to dump.

This morning’s report was depressing. It just had to be (feel the room) and I reported 1.63” of rainfall in the past 24 hours. We report snow and rain amounts, but that was a big one to put on the report. I think knowing the general QPF/LE/SWE falling from the sky and injecting into the snowpack (or melting) is all very important information for skiers/riders to have. This afternoon the mood was more optimistic as the clouds lifted and there was still snow to ski. The PM update reflected the on-hill vibe. Eastern skiers/riders can move on quickly and are always optimistic for the next one.

It’s definitely been a “you should’ve been here yesterday” type of season. There have been some good cycles of high-end powder skiing, but also just these impressive melt-outs where it feels hard to stop the bleeding. Overall the culprit is the warmth; eventually those departures do win out. You can’t run near record warmth for a winter season on the whole, and expect to not succumb to it. I tried to trick myself a few times when the snow was good (a few fun periods), but in the end those warm departures will rule the day.

The positive snow depth maps will be much better in this one and it looks like a repeat of some of the early season snows that pounded the elevations, while white rain and 4:1 slop falls under 1KFT here in town.

1.63” NEW at base of mountain, ha.

Waterways were flowing even before the rain started this morning. This flow is just overnight melt. Then it poured. Moving past 1” of water, steady 0.15” hourly rates.

0.75 - 1.00” so far around these parts, with rain continuing through 6-7am. This going to be a solid water event considering snowmelt and QPF.

It’s an impressive period. Noteworthy. I don’t know what changed between the fall and winter seasons. Something in the global pattern switched to lead to incredible departures compared to the climo baseline. El Niño, Pacific flow. Local departures at MVL ASOS: November... -0.2 December... +7.8 January... +8.1 February... +8.4 That is wild. First five days of March are averaging +12 to +13F at BTV, MPV, MVL, 1V4 (the main climo sites) too. Anyone know what switch was flipped?

Ha, just celebrating no snow, happy to endure a cold rain instead. I call bullshit. Sounds like a fishing expedition, trolling for bites. And the lure was good, as I bit at it. Bravo.

To me the biggest surprise from this winter has been that we are lucky to have had a fairly consistent snowpack (until the past couple days) this winter considering the departures. I think the winter has been better than the departures would make one think. I know that sounds like trying to find something to be happy about during this winter, but we've had at least some winter weather and snow on the ground for many in NNE. It has been a poor winter but this could have been an absolute record dumpster fire if someone just lays this out to you: Local departures at MVL ASOS: November... -0.2 December... +7.8 January... +8.1 February... +8.4 That is wild. First five days of March are averaging +12 to +13F at BTV, MPV, MVL, 1V4 (the main climo sites) too. That string of departures Dec/Jan/Feb could have led to a much worse winter IMO. But I don't have any stats to back that up, ha.

Golf is a great analogy, ha.

Savannah is a beautiful city next to the coast. Feels like old money, Spanish moss covered trees in areas, on the coastal river with some serious ships floating by into the Port of Savannah. I found myself surprised to enjoy it, ha.

You can pretty much bank on it. Temps in November and April will be near normal with a bunch of +8s between it lol. Just enough so it’s like 6 months of November climo.

It’s a tough time to try and go against warmth relative to normal.

Picking up right where the past 3 months have been… average here is 34/11 and we can barely get down near the normal max for a low temp. This has to be the warmest winter I can remember in terms of departures.

Ginxy not here for it.