powderfreak

If I wasn’t in the mountains, I’d go ocean. I need some interesting geography or environment to interact with my passion for weather.

My wife barely puts up with it. Barely.

The forum gets to be almost like sports team divided… like forecasting is a team sport. No matter what guidance shows, if one has already picked a side of team to be a fan of, it’s not going to move the needle. The “yeah I know it shows this but I don’t believe it” type stuff is like why even look or discuss the models? If you only believe what you want to see and disbelieve everything else, then might as well just log off and do another hobby, ha.

Crazy gradient across New England from here to there. Jealous to be honest. Biting wind in the teens while soaked snowpack turns to glare ice with a dusting blowing around on it… sort of likes the warmer temps, ha.

18F, breezy and moderate snow. METAR KMVL 171920Z AUTO 33012G21KT 1/2SM SN VV011 M07/M10

Patrol ended up closing top of Spruce Peak due to ice and conditions. Nothing you can do when it drops 30 degrees fast and goes from 40F to 10F. Unless you take a groomer out at 1pm, it’s just done for the day.

One strong temp drop and flash freeze so far today. Was 38F up top this morning and is now 12F and falling. Base area was 37F and now 15F.

Yes that's exactly what I was getting at. But I never look at it as if anyone is making forecasts, its just discussing what the models show at the times. 00z came back south again.

Temp just started free falling about 20 min ago. Down to 21F now. 3600ft lost 10F down to 19F in like 15 minutes. True flash freeze stuff.

Light snow now. Icy out.

Find the FROPA. Cold oozing down the Champlain Valley and struggling over the Greens.

Quad went on hold 9:45am. But that’s not really noteworthy ha. It gets windy up there. Most recent summit ob is 51G75 so it’s cranking up there.

28F and freezing rain.

Ha that was what I was trying to say last night. They are a result of past environmental conditions, not a predictor of future conditions. Most things are like that. Flowers come up because it’s been warm enough to get the soil temp up, not that the flowers know it won’t get cold again, ha.

Won’t they get lower later today? So the low doesn’t really count?

It’s an impressive and funny indication of the winter so far. Those things (not many living things) have no long term predictive power, but they certainly know when things are running ahead of schedule in ground/water environmental temps. More indicative of the recent past than the future if you really think about it.

I just had that thought. Just bring a regionwide like 10”+ and call it a year. Snowpack outside walking the dog is like 6-7” of QPF-rich granular. Certainly very warm for mid-February and sun angle starts to lean warmer. Still early enough though to score even a brief wintery week, as low a shot as it seems sometimes.

Had to circle back to this interaction this morning… ha, now the afternoon EURO was exactly what I was thinking of when I wrote the bolded. Tickle MVL with 8” over 10 days is congrats Temblant. We need that gradient down around RT 2 this season to score nicely.

Touché, well played with the warm flux in the Indian Ocean.

Can you speak about the global pattern a bit? What do you see outside North America going on that will lead to warmth from here on out?

Speaking of shallow inversions… last night was wild around here with huge swings. From 32F to 53F in one hour at MVL. Fell back into the 30s later too. Nothing like a puff of wind and 21 degree rise in temps.

Yeah for sure. 50% of either, those are great odds at this lead time… I might’ve gone lower as I don’t trust Day 10 totals. I feel like we are saying the same things but just in different ways, ha.

See I disagree. The snow maps clearly showed a gradient pattern lowering south in a part of December and then again in January that resulted in a couple healthy storms for CNE/NNE. That look on those maps was exactly what we saw before VT/NH/ME got 12-20” over a week in January. We talked about it a lot back then, the gradient sinking south. The Tremblant snows were when the gradient was tickling us up here. Like 5-8” at MVL over 10 days usually ended northward. Could it be wrong? It probably is as much as any Day 10 total prog, but the gradient there is further south in latitude.

Really going out on a limb here not thinking NNE is done with winter the second week of February. Winter weather Advisory for ice and 1-3” of snow tomorrow. This place is wild though.

There are chances though. Similar gradient pattern though to most of the winter.