powderfreak

This is a pretty crazy CoCoRAHS report from NNY. Depth of 45.2" with a SWE of almost 4 inches?!

This thing just keeps firing. The mesoscale stuff around here is wild. It's like a couple square mile footprint. A couple inches so far on top of the old snow.

Ha, the irony is it’s not doing it at the mountain. You drive into it heading down into the village.

Just nuking snow, has to 1”/hr right now under the standing wave here, down wind of the summit. Massive flakes.

Yeah you’re right, I was thinking moisture entrained in the flow but it is deeper layer NW. Last night it seemed more westerly off Ontario. Theres been a nice standing wave in town fluffing out big flakes. Thing just sits there and fires downstream of Mansfield.

It’s likely off the Great Lakes. It’s just moisture entrained in the flow and upslope into the mountains.

Just dumping snow at times this morning. 4” at the base, 6” up top. Even in the valley getting moderate snow at 1/2 mile vis at times. METAR KMVL 021445Z AUTO 00000KT 1/2SM SN FZFG OVC013 M03/M04 A3006

We hope some of these aggregates come to fruition. Stake depth is at 13” at the picnic tables, hopefully we can nickel and dime some QPF in the next week.

This time of year, with the solar min and strong inversions… any rain is likely to be a cold rain. A couple degrees above normal isn’t making it more enjoyable… but we are in the time of year when even above normal can be snowy for CNE/NNE.

It’s crazy how wintry the vibe got from the torch of most of November. A few inches of snow and daily dustings now with constant flakes in the air. Back the Currier and Ives flurries dusting things every 6-12 hours.

The NWS is forecasting for road and travel impacts. Wet roads are wet roads, maybe some slick spots. It’s definitely fun to get a whitening squall this time of year, but in terms of impact most people should be able to navigate that. Once the streets turn white, then the pressure is on to get the word out.

Had some heavy graupel showers earlier in town, low ratio large dipping dots. Loud snow. Coated things again but not much depth despite the intensity of precip. Only 2-3” of higher QPF crusty dense snow on the ground right now, we missed the “zone” on this past storm… but man does it create a different vibe than brown ground when it is cold. No grass showing, chilly, with squalls moving through… it’s Thanksgiving Weekend but feels right. Despite the +4.8 month. Knocked back from +5 and it feels wintry, ha.

Damn, that’s a vibe right there for Thanksgiving. Here I am happy I can’t see my grass and the evergreens are white, that’s a plastering for the S/C VT to NH crew.

Very wet and heavy.

Okemo getting crushed.

Yeah 2-3” down here, probably an inch ahead here. Not much difference.

Mesoscale disco issued… Mesoscale Discussion 2243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Areas affected...parts of east central New York...southern Vermont...New Hampshire and southwestern Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 281547Z - 281845Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour appear probable in a corridor from the vicinity of the Capital District of New York through the southern Green into White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire, into areas north of Portland ME through 1-3 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Rapid (2-4 mb 2-hourly) surface pressure falls are ongoing across the northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity through southern New England, where substantive surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed beneath strengthening divergent flow between coupling upper jet streaks. Downstream of a mid-level short wave trough pivoting into the northern Mid Atlantic region, models indicate strengthening upward vertical motion becoming maximized within a saturating layer near/just above 600 mb, where temperatures around -15C are conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Thermodynamic profiles across the lower Hudson/Champlain Valley vicinity into New England are still largely sub-freezing, aside from a slowly deepening near-surface layer slowly advecting across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England. It appears that the near-surface environment will remain cold enough in a corridor (roughly) near/northeast of the Capital District of New York through the Portland ME to support heavy accumulating snow, which various model output indicates probably will include rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour. ..Kerr.. 11/28/2024

I’ve got so much stuff going on this time of year I’ve barely been able to dig into this one, ha. Think we are going to be very elevation dependent between town and mountain tomorrow afternoon. Hoping for 2 or 3” at home if it can pound. Thinking 4-8” at the mountain, but most likely 4-6” of 8-9:1… maybe chance of 8” up top.

PF has entered the chat.

Going to need a big tick NW up here, but unlikely given the stability of guidance. The GFL-RUT-LCI corridor likes to max out frontogenic forcing. Climo favored zone on hugging systems.

Looked like some big accident involving TT unit and multiple cars on 89 near Berlin maybe? Down in town my car was iced up but roads fine, up here at the ski resort everything is a skating rink.

This looks like climo for a weak coastal system and poor low level temps.

The nighttime temps this month have just crushed snowmaking opportunities. Snowmaking relies on those daily temperature averages, and especially the mins. Chop 10 degrees off the lower end of the daily range and it’s been a struggle to make snow consistently in the elevations that need it. A ton of tepid air masses. Looks like it should improve. I always loop 925mb temps to gage snowmaking chances. Need to see -5C or lower sustained at 925mb for true snowmaking opportunities at 1500ft.

The new climate… just days and days of normal highs and torched lows. Another +5 day. Yesterday’s high… 40F. Normal high… 40F. Yesterday’s low… 32F Normal low… 22F.

It’s been 9 days since we’ve seen a mean daily temp departure less than +4. November is at +5.3. That pretty much explains the air masses we’ve seen. Not surprising this event will be marginal under 1,000ft.