powderfreak

Yeah I like 3-6” for the mountain through noon tomorrow, then another 2-4” into Sat AM. Say 5-10” by 7am SAT. Can apply that to all local mountains. I’m a little skeptical of 8”+ by 1pm tomorrow but when am I not? If ratios are 25:1 it’ll get there.

Take the opportunity, if it presents itself. You can move to wherever you want to start anew. Go somewhere you think you’d enjoy on a personal level.

My barometer to good upslope periods is rooted in the 850mb temps. If we can average -12C at ridge level, during waves of moisture… it will fluff out. When the thermal profile is such, it snows up north. This upcoming clipper seems terrain sensitive as well, with H85 temps of -8C to -22C over time, and lift averaging in the crosshairs.

Pinnacle Sports and Ski Essentials create great content. Love the stoke, wasn’t great but was needed and put the fire back in the “Stowe Family.”

Today was a fun day. Just the surprise of it actually snowing. A reporting morning for me, so to wake up to snow on the ground, having to clean the car off, then heading up to find the number folks are interested in at 5:30am… after like two weeks without a decent little snow, it felt like we finally got a win .

Cold front and ULL came through. 5” overnight and snowing.

You aren’t taking a chance on relying on “Morch” over say December. It statistically has more high-end events and average snowfall than December. Thats the statistical play. The emotional play is that if December sucks, you know you have months leading up to and through “Morch” to lean on. Seasonally, one likes the dark winter months for snow (regardless of climo temps), but March can bring the big totals.

We are all slaves to the models. Guess it goes down as a positive bust? No sense upgrading when it’s mostly done… just eat the verification scores and move onward. When it’s coming down at 2-3”/hr in a mesoband, no sense in trying to verify it through updates as a forecaster. At some point, you just let the forecast ride. If the system happened like models showed 24-36 hours ago, that deform band snow ends up over HubbDave or SNH.

That sums up the winter overall. Huge minimum departures and clouds, moisture.

Damn what lake/pond is that? I’m now curious. This looks starkly different than the reports around E/C CT.

Congrats. Nice videos of the storm too.

Where are you in reference to like Ryan’s station totals? Big gradient.

It’s definitely relative to the times and expectations of today’s modeling vs. 30 years ago when the internet was just starting to transfer information to the public. Those days were so naive, even for forecasters.

A clipper would be welcomed.

I just posted in the other thread that it’s been rough. Even a fresh coating tonight has felt like a big win. Departures have been incredible of +10<. Snowpack has been so hard to build. We don’t have much left here in the valley at only 750 feet. It was a granular gray, with only 6” of high-QPF remaining snowpack here in my backyard zone. Very springtime type snow cover. For the first time in a while we had a brief snow shower move through this evening. Only a quarter inch but has frosted the vegetation again.

Good call, 5 hour difference in maps but only 3 hours difference in run time.

We don’t have much left here in the valley at only 750 feet. It was a granular gray, with 6” of high-QPF remaining snowpack here in my backyard zone. Very springtime type snow cover. For the first time in a while we had a nice snow shower move through this evening. Only a quarter inch but has frosted the vegetation again.

This is even between 22z and 01z. Only a few hours. Keeps tightening the gradient south in the beginning of the event. 22z 01z

Wouldn’t some parents actually enjoy a notification that school is back on? The ones who know their day will be strapped due to childcare now? Who will be the first school in history to try reversing an early decision? At some point it’ll happen. Text and call alerts. It could be done. If some kids still stay home, who cares, but you get the day in.

Ha, right? Its going to rain for SNE, it’ll keep trending north. It is interesting the posters who genuinely get enjoyment when the contrarian outcome occurs. The opposite of what the masses desire. Rain or whiff is all the same to them.

You have to feel for all local meteorologists and the profession as a whole. This is the stuff that we all know couldn’t be seen happening, and the public will have zero mercy. The consistency was so stable for several days. You have to message that “modeled storm” the past few days to the public. But then if it snows 0-6”, after widespread 8-12”+ forecast with 1-2”/hr snows… it’s going be cause a whole other wave of “forecasters are a joke.”

That is absolutely unbelievable. It goes to show, consistency between day 2-7 means nothing. The last 24-48 hours is what matters coming into an event.

lol that’s not how I remember Messenger shuffles up here. They go ESE each run to go time, a tiny bit at a time. Like a torture you can’t avoid . When Messenger was posting bouy observations and every RAP run each hour sliding away in the last 6 hours before an event.

Yeah good positive depth increases there.

The positive snow depth map is likely the much better option.