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nj2va

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Everything posted by nj2va

  1. If that carries eastward, it would remove the lone model that’s really punching the mid level warmth way quicker/north than others. I know I’ll flip but a few extra hours will make a big difference.
  2. At this point, we should just close the other thread and have this be the main thread.
  3. Unless the NAMs stay stubborn tomorrow, I’m feeling good for a 6” floor for DC based on tonight’s globals.
  4. Honestly, I’ve been so busy at work I haven’t paid much attention during the day. A quick look vs 18z and the flip was a touch later than 18z. I honestly don’t really put much confidence in UK thermals but a nice data point for the better lol
  5. UK would be fun, flips DC basically at 17/18z Sunday with ~0.9” QPF before that.
  6. Usually you’re the curse when you’re out there for your Wisp weekend, it’s 45 and rain. Glad your mojo has improved
  7. Let’s do this! Tommy will have a goal this period, calling it now
  8. I prefer to stay out of them b/c of the bitching and moaning about back-end, flip to mix, etc. Good call..
  9. Looking at soundings, DC flips around 16 or 17z Sunday on the GFS, which is pretty close to the Euro. GFS QPF is ~0.8” so a really nice thump.
  10. Should I tag you in my obs when I first flip to sleet?
  11. Caps have had a banger of a 2nd period. Just owning the ice right now.
  12. If both NAMs are stubbornly showing that earlier flip than Euro/others tomorrow, I’ll definitely start to take it more seriously. I also want to check tomorrow morning how NAM has done in the south with the storm.
  13. It’s been a long time since the whole area has been under a WSW
  14. Yeah it was a touch better for us. At this point, I don’t think we’re going to see huge changes but 25-50 miles or 1-2 extra hours before sleet can mean 2-4” more of snow.
  15. I’m kinda excited for a sleet bomb after snow. We’re going to be a glacier. Down to 27 here. 1/-3 at Deep Creek!
  16. Looks like maybe 0.4/0.5” QPF before the flip?
  17. Starting at 6z/12z tomorrow, its hard to completely discount the NAMs, especially the 3K thermals.
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