nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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We’ll need 10 more days from there for the pattern to settle in. Then another 5 to see our first threat materialize. So we’re looking at the first week of February realistically. It’ll be rockin’!
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I wasn’t going to say anything...
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GEFS saves you. Just don’t look at the snowfall mean. Eeeek.
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Just got to Deep Creek Lake. Feels and looks like deep winter here. Looking forward to skiing tomorrow before the rain comes.
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How lucky are you!
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I actually wish there wasn’t so much model “data” available...weeklies, monthlies, seasonal models, etc. Too much stuff to pick apart and analyze.
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00z CMC has snow showers at 240 for Ji. Winter’s saved.
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Absolutely, I’d be happy with any frozen event to track...should be a fun period coming up.
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Got the Paul Kocin snowstorm book for Christmas...a great read so far.
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18z FV3 has a parade of snowstorms in the uber LR...I feel like one of the signs of a good pattern coming is when OPs start spitting out snowstorms at ease.
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Some pretty pinks showing up on those maps.
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12Z FV3 continues to support a busy tracking period is coming up. Has a weak low on the 30th in the TN valley that eventually transfers to a coastal off Delaware. All rain for us but just another solution being offered by an OP over 120 hours out. Get that to transfer south of us and we’d be in the game.
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Minor, at best.
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I like this look a lot. Without looking at the surface, I’d say this favors a winter event for our area.
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Peace and joy to all on this Christmas Day!
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Prayed for a snowstorm at mass tonight. We’re good.
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Agree. Not much more to say beyond we just have to be patient until mid month (good luck to some on here). Hopefully before then we can score a few minor events...I do like Bob’s idea that generally when we have some cold around with precip nearby...out of 3-4 chances we’d score at least one which is being advertised the 1st week of Jan.
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I’m really itching to start tracking something beyond pattern changes.
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I also like the total period is wetter than average from the SE through the MA. Very Nino-ish.
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12z GFS should flip the moods again.
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Thanks PSU and @WxUSAF. I should mention GEFS is much more amplified than Euro with its MJO forecast and something we’d much rather see. I’m on my phone or else I’d post the current forecast.
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Latest Euro MJO forecast and guidance continues progressing towards 7/8. I’m a noob with MJO though...what does the inner circle represent? If the MJO happens as planned with the green line, does it actually skip phase 7/8 since its in the ‘inner circle’?
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Of course we can, its the mid-Atlantic. Perhaps the “hope” is based on the broad consensus of long range guidance, seasonal forecasts, and respected meteorologist predictions for the winter. Could all those prove wrong and we have a BN winter? Sure. But that seems unlikely at this point. Re: tempering expectations....good luck with that around here.
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So many times when I read your post, I think its me talking.
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Mood swing Monday... Don’t we need to progressively step up to the pattern advertised by the weeklies/seasonal forecasts? The unicorn pattern won’t just appear...it’ll be a gradual step until mid month.
