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nj2va

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Everything posted by nj2va

  1. nj2va
    Poor Ji if Isotherm is correct
  2. nj2va
    Few runs now that GFS has been keying into the 28/29...big ones are sniffed out early yadda yadda.
  3. nj2va
    Super close to all snow. Happy to see a threat.
  4. nj2va
    If anything, won’t be all rain verbatim at least.
  5. nj2va
    @ravensrule ...master at pointing out dirty jokes
  6. nj2va
    Great catch and thanks for the explanation. And its a legit west/Baffin block too on guidance. I’ll take my chances with that any winter especially with a 50/50 that seems fairly persistent too.
  7. nj2va
    Oh, sorry I was talking about the mid-Atlantic scoring. You’re too far north as the blocking will just push all the blizzards straight into this area. There’s always next year for you!!!
  8. nj2va
    Yep, if this was a one week blip at a -NAO, it’s one thing....but the fact that it seems to persist and linger makes me bullish we score eventually. And if we don’t, we’re fooked and should just accept the fact that it’ll never snow in the cities/SE again.
  9. nj2va
    I remember you posting something similar in Jan 2016 about which period to key on.
  10. nj2va
    Euro has been coming in snowier for Friday-Sunday for the mountains of MD/WV. 18z drops 5-9” there and even has a dusting/minor accumulation south of DC across Stafford and PWC.
  11. nj2va
    I don't really care about temps at this point (when they are that borderline). We can't even keep a storm from getting shredded lately so I'd rather see a potent system/moisture and worry about borderline temps closer in when models pick up on thermals more accurately.
  12. nj2va
    Hopefully its cookin' up something good for us. see what I did there?
  13. nj2va
    Less than 1.5” snow mean on the GEFS through the next 13 days doesn’t inspire much confidence for winter weather. Ha, ninja’d by PSU.
  14. nj2va
    Yes, agree we both know thats not how it'll turn out at the surface with a verbatim 500 like that but comical to see the ways we fail on the OP GFS. Para GFS looking way more realistic in its surface depiction IMO. 1054 H pressing down preventing it from cutting (eta: or maybe not lol)
  15. nj2va
    Cuts to Chicago
  16. nj2va
    Yup, I hear you on that. I used to want to threats get inside 5 days....at this point, I'd be happy to see it get within 10. Still think we'll score but isn't this hobby fun?!
  17. nj2va
    GFS has a low in TN next Friday with rain all the way to Buffalo. Just no cold air which continues to be a theme this winter as that could be a great WAA event... eventually turns into a hybrid miller b.
  18. nj2va
    Your tiny violin should be arriving this morning via Fedex....your welcome.
  19. nj2va
    That was a great storm...I remember 48 hours in, it kept trending better and better for DC. Something like 24+ hours of snow...I don’t remember my exact total but somewhere near a foot I think.
  20. nj2va
    GFS has some snow showers next Monday in the region with the NS disturbance swinging through the NE. Mountains pick up 9”+ through MLK Day from the cold front, upslope, and the NS disturbance. Great timing for the holiday weekend and hope its right as I’ll be back in Deep Creek on Friday.
  21. nj2va
    I’m looking forward to your 5 minutes of snow TV so you can rub it in CAPE’s face you were right.
  22. nj2va
    NAM’d
  23. nj2va
    That’s a lot of scrolling through blue
  24. nj2va
    BAMWX is overrated, as is Twitter.
  25. nj2va
    I'll let someone way smarter than me confirm, but wouldn't you expect a 50/50 low and western ridge to show stronger on an ensemble mean than a random azz gulf low 15 days out?
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