SnowNiner

I'm not so sure. I'll be happy with 2 inches at this point. Temps are ALWAYS a problem.

Every model I've seen has Raleigh and eastern/central NC in the sweet spot. Hey but if you want to give me more snow, I'll take it! I am concerned with the continued forecast for rain/snow at the onset by my NWS.

This isn't really a wnc storm. It's a eastern NC special, the late tilting trough and lack of a gulf storm, Charlotte is right on the fringe...imo

"Boom" completely overused so far this year. Very inappropriate. Bad form. Burger would be so upset. So we do know the 18z GFS is going to crush all our dreams this run right?

I think this is Raleigh's year CR. I have no confidence in whatever this clipper/Miller B/late coastal thing is for the western/southern piedmont but it just seems like it wants to snow in eastern NC. Hope you get to take down your snow shields! Pretty cool to have a pop up threat for somewhere in the SE though...

Please, please bring us a weak Nino next year. We've GOT to get the southern stream going. I'm so over the northern stream dominated boo boo.

Are we still tracking the beach flurries? I'd much rather focus on our torrential cold rain cutter on the 8th.

Meh, we rain, we toss. Looks like a cutter. Banter ftw

I'm starting to the think the -EPO is the story of the winter, not the Nina. It's showing good persistence. Gives me some hope going into mid January. Just have to not be in a crazy arctic period and time the highs and lows right.

Thank you Grit for your analysis and play by play for this event, and others. It's been educational. Same goes out to Buddy, Wow, and all the others who have a nice knowledge and interpretation ability of the models. I too have been looking at the soundings of the RAP, HRRR, and NAM3 and even though it shows CLT in the green, the soundings show that pretty much the whole column is below freezing other than right near the surface. Although I know we're not going to accumulate I'm still rooting to see some snow falling from the sky tomorrow evening and night. But again, it's absolutely amazing the difference between Charlotte, and anywhere north and west of here. Charlotte/85 is ALWAYS the battleground. Excited to get into Iredell county next year. Hopefully the battleground doesn't move north with me.

At this point I think that's a pretty good graphic of how this storm unfolds. Mountains, Hickory up toward Winston and Greensboro do well (points north and west of CLT). Mood flakes for CLT south and east mixed in.

Perhaps if there's something you don't understand about my post, feel free to ask a question or simply don't reply at all. "Read more and post less" directives are just arrogant and rude. Thanks.

FYP. None of us should legitimately be expecting a snowstorm the first week in December outside the mountains and south of Virginia. What's kind of encouraging though is that we're here at the beginning of a decent pattern looking at a potential Miller A storm in the beginning of December. And just a week ago we were saying how dry the pattern may turn out to be. Now we've got a Miller A storm just a tad too warm for accumulations. Makes you think some time frame between this weekend and the middle of the month we may actually have a chance to score an advisory event in December! That's pretty remarkable.

That sounds reasonable from what I can see. Unless this thing slows down to come Friday night, we're looking at mood flakes in clt. I'm fine with that this early. And if it lasted all day, even if it doesn't stick, that would be pretty sweet.

Yep.

+++++++QBO It's always something though. Hopefully next year we just have standard, ordinary, run of the mill indexes and I bet we score a nice storm at some point. Last two years CRAZY nino, this year CRAZY +QBO. Just need normal....unless it's CRAZY blocking, I'll take that.

Don't say that. The weeklies and the CFS are my only hope at this point. That's so sad... Next year is going to rock though with weak Nino, solar minimum, and something QBO. Feeling good about next year. Kinda.

Yeah I'd take one week. Most we can get it looks like is 3 days. And in between are these HUGE warm ups that take FOREVER! I feel like this warm run has lasted forevvvvvvveeeeerrr. We're not even in range of fantasy storms at this point, that's how long it's taking to get out of the crap pattern.

Remember when we hoped the October -AO state would correlate to the winter AO state? lol.

Yeah learning moment for me. Tracked this thing for 10 days, it got better and better. Never going to trust a storm unless I study the HRRR and see where the snow line is coming and I have to see I'm 20 miles north of it. Also, surface temps have to be at freezing or below for the majority of the event. Terrible bust for many. And it was a stinking Miller A !!!

Took the middle ground. Ok, so 4 inch on the EURO + 10 inches for CLT = 14 inches / 2 = 7 inches. Is that how it works? I'll take it!

I agree, it was late to the ballgame on every aspect of this storm. I expect it to ramp up totals to the west (I hope!) Raleigh guys, I'm telling you you're good anyway you pack it. Should be feeling good right now.

Yeah, I don't want to get greedy from the 7 modeled, but if we can get this thing a little closer, I wouldn't be upset. That thin line through CLT could move awefully quick in 2 days time.

You'd think at 2.5 days there'd be some GFS/EURO/Ukie/CMC consensus, but no. Hopefully Euro goes to the Ukie. Oh, and lower those stinkin snow shields! It's killing me you're not in to this threat. Raleigh seems to be sitting pretty I'm surprised you're not more excited...

Models say thank you to me for all my time and attention by giving me a token inch and saying, you'll take it and like it!