Tacoma

1 hour ago, Hvward said:

6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

I hope your correct, maybe our best set-up this season and as usual its trying its best to turn in to nothing, boy threading the needle isn't the word for it. 

12 minutes ago, Weatherzim said:

Between him and CJ I wonder how they co-exist they are dem and republic of weather always polar opposites

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Right, we've seen the weather for these type storms change overnight.  From not in our favor to in our favor, just have to watch the trends and say there is a possibility for Thursday that the ingredients are on the table.

21 minutes ago, Weatherzim said:

Dale Gilbert says nothing for Thursday

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I believe that is the conservative coming out which is always the case.  So much can change between now and then how can you possibly make that bold of a prediction?

Yep those don't look bad at all. 

don't quite understand, we get probably the best look of the year with cold air in place but getting the moisture, storm to meet up with the cold doesn't look good right now.  Was hoping this wood verify,  man the rain storms always, usually verify and we can't get one snowstorm to verify. 

2 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

The euro ENS is further NW of the OP and focuses the heaviest accumulations across roughly 85 and north.

the NW trend has commenced . 

I've seen 10 inches of snow in Asheville on April 3rd I  believe it was 1987, I was delivering mail and it actually I believe was 12 inches.  It was great.

13 hours ago, eyewall said:

Great, another rain event

why couldn't one of these events be snow, where is the cold when you need it?

you know there is wwa all around Asheville and Buncombe County,  I would think looking at the future radar for tomorrow we would also be under the wwa.  looks good for Buncombe according to that. 

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

My TWC local forecast has R/S mix tomorrow, snow accumulations less than an inch! Big win this winter, all day, everyday!

Im telling y’all, this has pretty good bust potential,! I swear watching WYFF 4 and CJ, every time he shows futurecast radar, it’s snowier than the last run, and it’s almost like he can’t believe it as he’s talking over it!! It’s great!!

well thats the weather channel for you, why I never watch it.

Yep, everyone has a wwa except Buncombe, whats the deal with that. 

from what it looks like all of WNC will see a decent event, maybe a couple of inches.

Hay guys a couple of good thoughts are winter is not even half over yet plus the groundhog will see his shadow tomorrow.  Instead of six more weeks of winter you might say finally six weeks of winter weather, here's hoping the rest of our winter we'll score a couple of times.  We all know in this area some of our biggest snowstorms have been in March and one or two in April.  We will probably be colder when spring gets here will be our luck when we're all ready for spring, so hang in there gents. 

well there is still hope, winter is still not quite half over, so we have a big half to go plussssss, the ground hog will see his shadow tomorrow not for six more weeks of winter weather cause we've not had any winter but for six weeks finally of winter weather is my thoughts.  I hope anyway.

Goodness what a shi-----------y winter and I've lived here 63 years, worst I've ever seen in those years. 

10 hours ago, WeatherHawk said:

The NW Blue Ridge is much better IMO   large views, cliffs and peaks...hit the parkway up here between Blowing Rock and Linville...then go to Hampton's General Store for some awesome food

If there is a threat of snow the parkway will close the gates.

5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

The cold is coming according to the GFS, after the 4th or 5th, so fresh cold air, low developing on the front, bingo

I pray you are right

47 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

There have been many ,many runs of the gfs with a storm around this time(6/7th) 

Thats is the best look yet!

trouble is where will the cold air come from, that's been the problem all winter.

41 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said:

We know the faults of the GFS but it’s shown this storm signal for this date multiple times. Can we finally score?


.

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

At least this fantasy storm is at hour 240

well here we go with the 10 days out thing again. why couldn't this be showing for this Friday and Saturday?

well after picking up school kids and lots of buses already out on the road Buncombe County decides to have a two hour delay even though last night the weather service put out a special statement about black ice this morning for Buncombe County, lots of buses had to take kids back home.  Every county had called a delay early this morning except Buncombe, even Henderson County.  Wake ups folks and be on the side of precaution. 

11 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Saturday STJ wave is the most interesting looking one I've seen this year so far (that's not saying much). The 12z NAM at 84 hours has this system much more cutoff over the southwest. The thicknesses are supportive of snow/rain. Only issue could be the boundary layer conditions being too warm.If we could trend this a bit strong aloft/more cutoff, it would manufacture some cold air. Something to watch.

I hope!

8 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Ensembles continue to target between the 7th-10th, couple of juicers in there too

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Problem is will it be cold enough, seems we're always lacking the cold enough for snow.  We've had lots of 35 and rain. 

14 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH early thoughts for next weekend.

It's worth 
noting that GFS forecast soundings show plenty of low level cooling 
Saturday night into early Sunday, so we may have to consider p-type 
issues during that time if there's any adequate QPF assoc with the 
upper low passage.    The ECMWF on the other hand shows the northern 
stream portion of the system dominating and remaining much more 
progressive, thus it keeps the moisture and sfc low well to our 
south, and in fact, keeps our area dry this weekend!  The Canadian 
looks more like the GFS, and the GEFS supports the operational GFS 
to some extent. For now, won't make too many changes and continue to 
carry chance PoPs until future runs come into better agreement.  

well there is a chance and it is within 7 days, that's about a first. 

Just can't seem to get that southern track going like was predicted but when it does stay to our south and east the cold air we need to get snow instead of rain doesn't hang out close enough by.  I'm still hoping that Fab February and March saves us.  Next weekend doesn't look bad but like yesterday's storm we were 36 with rain, what a nice snow that would have been. 

14 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Yep, the real cold is still locked up in Canada during this time.  If the GFS is to be trusted, it shows a pretty good push of cold air south from Canada but not until the after this storm has passed.  Still, something to keep an eye on as well as the following week (1st week of Feb.) with cold on the move.

Go figure,