Tacoma

28 minutes ago, BretWx said:

That last deform band on the 12z HRRR really wants to juice up as it heads over the mountains. Just a little more east than I would like to get 1 last little thump down here.

when is the deformation band suppose to come thru

I was hoping snow amounts would creep up today but if anything I think they've gone down a little of which it wasn't much to begin with.  Boy we get a Miller A and cold air and still can't get a decent snowstorm.  Man what is it gonna take to get a nice snowstorm?

we all know that 90% of the time the old NW Trend comes into play, these models  do this about this time in every storm.

9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

All folks west of I-95 are dangerously teetering towards looking at pictures of an OBX snow. It isn’t just western NC. We’ve got almost 3 full days for this to continue moving in the direction it currently is.

As well as move back west, how many times have we seen this happen.

14 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah still a lot to workout.  Obviously we aren't going to play the sky is falling here but just commenting on it at this time. 

Maybe later today things will start forever being in our favor again.  We really need the two pieces of energy to phase just right to at least have a decent snow before winter ends.

Goodness what would make the storm come thru more slowly, anymore the snowstorms move thru fast and the rain moves thru slowly, what is the deal, slow down please,

10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Not the trends we want to see this morning on the models for here but still a few days away. Current temp of 50 degrees.  Temps should start crashing soon.

Doesn't the models usually about this time sorta lose our good snow chances just to bring them back a day later, I hope the two pieces of energy phase together in the sweet spot to bring us the goods.

We can't ever seem to thread the needle, seems like every time there is a possibility of a snowstorm it never works out.  It's crazy and frustrating.

8 hours ago, strongwxnc said:

Start the thread.



.

wow isn't that beautiful, if were only two days out, reminds me of the old days, 

12 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

My man remembers the 50's! How old are you?

73

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yep, flooding is a big concern. Here’s 12Z EPS mean:

Gosh why couldn't some of that be snow, back in the fifties sixties and seventies we had 4 or 5 good snow events.  Now we can't buy a couple of good events, what has happened to our snow events like we use to have?

Why does it seem like every February winter weather chances seem to disappear when in fact it should be a great month for winter weather especially in the mountains.

rooftops and ground turning white

school buses are on the road I sure hope they hurry, if it keeps snowing it will stick

coming down pretty good in Candler now

Nothing at Candler yet, snow shield getting further north than was forecasted.  Seems to always go further north

seems like when there is a storm the snow shield will usually go further north than the models show as in last weekends snow did

There's still time for some NW trend but the storm needs to get stronger or more amped up to move the snow shield more NW.  

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS 10:1 looks amazingly good for many and even historic for deep SE! Ens maps like this in deep SE/Gulf coast almost unheard of:

 

Qpf:

can we please get that heavier snow shield about 70 miles west

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z 84 RGEM is ~150 miles further S with the Gulf low vs the 0Z CMC 96 and precip shield is significantly further south along with it. Thus, I’m expecting the 12Z CMC to come in significantly south of the 0Z CMC with the precip/snow line/540 line, etc.

So much for the NW Trend some are hoping for

Yep the PV is trending west which allows our storm to become more amped and not suppresed.  Lots of time left here to watch.

17 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

 

Alan first thoughts 

I still think the snow shield gets into the mountains pretty good by the time all is said and done.

I still have snow all around in Candler

10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Even with the rain this morning the snow is still holding strong. 

10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Even with the rain this morning the snow is still holding strong. 

Could it be waiting on another?  Let's hope the wise tell is true.

12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

My gawd the cliff diving in the long range thread is off the charts. I have spent the last 30 minutes deleting stuff and there's still a ton left

don't know why they're cliff diving knowing we're still 3 days out the NW trend has taken small steps with probably more NW trend today or tomorrow.  Asheville went from nothing to 0.2 QPF