ChescoWx

Actual un-adjusted facts over feelings....

Charlie I thought I would go back and run both your Phoenixville site against the other site with continuous data for the period 1893 to 2016 - West Chester. Without those chilling tweaks made to the actual data. We again see nothing alarming here at all. West Chester is mighty flat....Phoenixville with some typical warm vs cold cycles also not very scary at all!

Thanks Charlie!!! 6 of the 10 warmest Aprils are prior to 1985.....and 5 of the 10 starts are before 2000. As always nothing to support climate alarmism.

0.59" of rain since yesterday with 0.35" since midnight. Showers and another chilly day in store with temps staying in the 50's for most spots in the county. Clouds and showers but warmer temps look likely for the entire work week with Tuesday looking like the driest day with maybe even some sun at times. Wednesday looks the warmest with temps near 80 degrees. Chester County records for today: High 94 degrees at Phoenixville (1930) / Low 27 degrees at Phoenixville (1966) / Rain 2.01" at both Nottingham and Warwick Township (2019)

0.59" of rain since yesterday with 0.35" since midnight. Showers and another chilly day in store with temps staying in the 50's for most spots in the county. Clouds and showers but warmer temps look likely for the entire work week with Tuesday looking like the driest day with maybe even some sun at times. Wednesday looks the warmest with temps near 80 degrees. Chester County records for today: High 94 degrees at Phoenixville (1930) / Low 27 degrees at Phoenixville (1966) / Rain 2.01" at both Nottingham and Warwick Township (2019)

0.17" of rain so far today. It is also the chilliest high temperature for today's date across the County in 32 years. High temps across Chesco have ranged from as low as 51.8 in Atglen to 54.6 at West Chester

Chilly weekend ahead with some showers temps will struggle to escape the 50's in most spots. Shower chances look to continue for much of the week ahead. The warmest day should be Wednesday with highs near 80 degrees. We should see a change to cooler than normal weather beginning next weekend and lasting through the mid to late month period. Chester County wide records for today: High 91 degrees at Phoenixville (1928) / Low 26 degrees at Devault 1W (1957) / Rain 2.12" at Coatesville 1SW (1922)

Chilly weekend ahead with some showers temps will struggle to escape the 50's in most spots. Shower chances look to continue for much of the week ahead. The warmest day should be Wednesday with highs near 80 degrees. We should see a change to cooler than normal weather beginning next weekend and lasting through the mid to late month period. Chester County wide records for today: High 91 degrees at Phoenixville (1928) / Low 26 degrees at Devault 1W (1957) / Rain 2.12" at Coatesville 1SW (1922)

The front has moved through the area and temps today will be about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs near normal in the upper 60's. We turn colder than normal for the weekend with high temps struggling to escape the mid 50's for higher spots and upper 50's in lower locales. It will be cloudy with some showers possible most likely on Sunday into Sunday night. We warm back up again by the middle of next week before we cool back down for the week of the 12th with a stretch of below normal readings. Chester County records for today: High 95 degrees at Phoenixville (2018) / Low 28 Devault 1W (1957) / Rain 3.00" Devault 1W (1985)

The front has moved through the area and temps today will be about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs near normal in the upper 60's. We turn colder than normal for the weekend with high temps struggling to escape the mid 50's for higher spots and upper 50's in lower locales. It will be cloudy with some showers possible most likely on Sunday into Sunday night. We warm back up again by the middle of next week before we cool back down for the week of the 12th with a stretch of below normal readings. Chester County records for today: High 95 degrees at Phoenixville (2018) / Low 28 Devault 1W (1957) / Rain 3.00" Devault 1W (1985)

Here in Chester County PA we finished April with an overall average temperature of 53.8 across the 15 Airport and MADIS stations which is 2.0 degrees above the long term 132 year average. The warmest spot was as is usually the case Phoenixville as the lowest observation spot in the county at 54.9 degrees. The coolest was the 53.0 in Warwick Township. Overall this was our 28th warmest April on record across 132 years of observation data. Of note 13 of the top 20 warmest Aprils occurred prior to 1990. While 3 of the coldest Aprils have all occurred just since 2007. Below is a graph analyzing the April temp trends (actual in blue) since 1893. I have also as always overlaid the NCEI adjusted temps (in red). As we can see they again consistently applied chilling adjustments to cool the data for every year over 110 consecutive years from 1895 thru 2005. Of interest since 2005 they have now begun to apply warming adjustments to the actual data in 12 of the last 18 years. The appropriate trend lines reflect the clear impact these post hoc adjustments have made to the warming trend lines.

We are off to a 1.6 degree cooler start to 2024 (42.6 degrees) compared to last year across the 15 Chester County reporting sites. However while cooler than last year we are at the 9th warmest first 4 months on record since 1893. The Top 8 warmest are 1998 - 44.24 2023 - 44.22 1990 - 44.0 2012 - 43.7 1913 - 43.1 2017 - 43.1 1949 - 42.8 2002 - 42.8

We are off to a 1.6 degree cooler start to 2024 (42.6 degrees) compared to last year across the 15 Chester County reporting sites. However while cooler than last year we are at the 9th warmest first 4 months on record since 1893. The Top 8 warmest are 1998 - 44.24 2023 - 44.22 1990 - 44.0 2012 - 43.7 1913 - 43.1 2017 - 43.1 1949 - 42.8 2002 - 42.8

High here in East Nantmeal was 84.8 - no Airport or MADIS locales here in Chester County PA have hit 90 today. Highest obs was the 87.8 at KOQN airport in West Chester As always 90's are certainly much tougher to find out here in the Western philly burbs

Here in Chester County PA we finished April with an overall average temperature of 53.8 about 2.0 degrees above the long term 132 year average. The warmest spot was as is usually the case Phoenixville as the lowest observation spot in the county at 54.9 degrees. The coolest was the 53.0 in Warwick Township. Overall this was our 28th warmest April on record across 132 years of observation data. Of note 13 of the top 20 warmest Aprils occurred prior to 1990. While 3 of the coldest Aprils have all occurred just since 2007. Below is a graph analyzing the April temp trends (actual in blue) since 1893. I have also as always overlaid the NCEI adjusted temps (in red). As we can see they again consistently applied chilling adjustments to cool the data for every year over 110 consecutive years from 1895 thru 2005. Of interest since 2005 they have now begun to apply warming adjustments to the actual data in 12 of the last 18 years. The appropriate trend lines reflect the clear impact these post hoc adjustments have made to the warming trend lines.

Here in Chester County PA we finished April with an overall average temperature of 53.8 about 2.0 degrees above the long term 132 year average. The warmest spot was as is usually the case Phoenixville as the lowest observation spot in the county at 54.9 degrees. The coolest was the 53.0 in Warwick Township. Overall this was our 28th warmest April on record across 132 years of observation data. Of note 13 of the top 20 warmest Aprils occurred prior to 1990. While 3 of the coldest Aprils have all occurred just since 2007. Below is a graph analyzing the April temp trends (actual in blue) since 1893. I have also as always overlaid the NCEI adjusted temps (in red). As we can see they again consistently applied chilling adjustments to cool the data for every year over 110 consecutive years from 1895 thru 2005. Of interest since 2005 they have now begun to apply warming adjustments to the actual data in 12 of the last 18 years. The appropriate trend lines reflect the clear impact these post hoc adjustments have made to the warming trend lines.

High up to 82.2 so far here in EN

After yesterday's slight cooling today will see temps pop back up into the 80's. We should see temps trend back to normal and then below starting tomorrow through the weekend. Some higher spots in the county may actually struggle to escape the 50's for high temps both Saturday and Sunday. We will also see some showers around by Sunday. We should warm back to above normal by the middle of next week but should see a solid stretch of cooler than normal temps returning by mid-May. Chester County records for today: High 91 degrees at Coatesville (1899) / Low 28 degrees also at Coatesville (1903) / Rain 1.84" at Chadds Ford (1976)

After yesterday's slight cooling today will see temps pop back up into the 80's. We should see temps trend back to normal and then below starting tomorrow through the weekend. Some higher spots in the county may actually struggle to escape the 50's for high temps both Saturday and Sunday. We will also see some showers around by Sunday. We should warm back to above normal by the middle of next week but should see a solid stretch of cooler than normal temps returning by mid-May. Chester County records for today: High 91 degrees at Coatesville (1899) / Low 28 degrees also at Coatesville (1903) / Rain 1.84" at Chadds Ford (1976)

Charlie if you think that chart above is science....I cannot help you. That is simply the plotted adjustments....cleaned and homogenized are the words you need to be keying in on....

Again there is nothing in there that shows the actual adjustments by month and year and the control rationale that were applied for those actual individual Chester County stations.

So Charlie you say "The southern and eastern sections of the county and/or at low elevation are over-represented". Coatesville is in a valley" So to correct this you adjust the average annual temperature to well below what was recorded at the coolest station of record....that is an interesting approach and will of course dampen all of that pesky 1930's and 1940's actual warming...

Again lots of rehashed verbiage but where exactly is the detailed Chester County PA analysis that documents and supports the local adjustments made?. How exactly did they determine to chill each and every year from 1895 till the 2000's. For example why was the full year Chester County average for 1931 chilled by exactly 2.5 degrees.and 1932 by 2.34 degrees? Was a blanket State or Region general approximate adjustment determined and applied ad hoc to all of the actual observations? We seem to have plenty of country, US and World adjustments noted above but where exactly is the support for the Chester County PA adjustments? Can someone point me in that direction for that kind of detailed local data or is it not available? Thanks!

We have a chance to hit 80 degrees here in East Nantmeal for the first time since last September 9th. If not today for sure tomorrow. Mostly sunny both today and tomorrow before shower chances increase by Tuesday PM. Slightly cooler but still above normal temps will close out the work week. Chester County Records for today: High 92 degrees in Phoenixville (1915) / Low 26 degrees at Coatesville (1946) / Rain 2.00" at Devault (1952)

We have a chance to hit 80 degrees here in East Nantmeal for the first time since last September 9th. If not today for sure tomorrow. Mostly sunny both today and tomorrow before shower chances increase by Tuesday PM. Slightly cooler but still above normal temps will close out the work week. Chester County Records for today: High 92 degrees in Phoenixville (1915) / Low 26 degrees at Coatesville (1946) / Rain 2.00" at Devault (1952)