ChescoWx

While not the sunniest of days, today and Friday should be dry and not too far from our normal high in the low 70's. We chill back down to below normal over the weekend with shower chances the highest on Saturday but dry again on Sunday. Chester County wide records for today: High 91 degrees at Phoenixville (1945) / Low 30 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1956) / Rain 2.16" at Glenmoore (2012)

Again Charlie has an answer to his question "Why are they cooler?" His answer is that they are further N+W, higher elevation. Again let's go to the facts for the truth. According to the NWS Mount Holly CWA forecast zones - of the current 16 stations reporting 9 of them are in the Eastern Zone of Chester County and only 7 are in the Western Zone. So they are in fact NOT more located to the N and W. So now how does the elevation look at these stations? Well in fact 11 of them are at lower elevations below 465 feet ASL while only 5 are located at greater than 525 feet ASL. So there are actually more at lower than higher elevations. Facts over feelings as always!

As always Charlie you are just not seeming to understand or comprehend the actual depth and breath of real world data we are now showing here. Let's review again - There is no such thing as a ChescoWX data set you keep talking about in the data we are reviewing here. There are of course not simply 2 Coatesville COOP sites and "Paul's House" in the data set!! The data set we are looking at includes at least 27 National Weather Service COOP/AWOS and MADIS sites in the historical data set between 1894 and Today. Including in the current data set here in 2024 an active 16 currently reporting NWS/AWOS and MADIS reporting sites in the current data. Charlie just to put a a fine point on this so you understand. The Chester County PA data we present here is far from what you call the ChescoWX data which only includes 3 stations....it is a robust 27 stations across more than 130 years of NWS Data. Is this getting clearer for you?? As we yet again showed you the actual Chester County PA data is far from "in good agreement" with the PHL UHI Airport data and of course as you see is not "warming strongly since 1970" in Chester County. This is not that difficult Charlie!!

While some very slight warming during our current warming cycle in rural Chester County as you can see below - certainly not at the rate of PHL. See below updated comparison since 1980 see below again nowhere near the warming rate!

Why start in 1995 we do have data back to 1941 for PHL (RED TREND) a quick comparison vs. All Chester County (ORANGE TREND) stations paints a quite different story in trend lines. Rural counties like Chester County clearly show only minor if any real warming in comparison. As I showed before the real UHI impact started in 1970 at PHL as I detailed with the construction projects earlier. Look at how the lines diverge from 1970 on as the UHI impact at PHL accelerates!

I will repost as it seems no one has been able to come up with where the heck are the cooling adjustments for the known PHL UHI problem??? Below is an analysis of the PHL Airport average annual temperature from 1941 through 2023. I have overlaid the adjusted NCEI temperatures vs the actual reported averages. Why in the last 30 years have the PHL Airport Temps been adjusted upward in 19 of the last 30 years despite UHI?? And the overall cumulative adjustments over those years has been an overall net upward adjustment of 3.45 degrees in PHL actual reported temps. Thoughts????

since facts are over feelings...they don't feel any abuse as the truth sets them free!!!

In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all available months between December 2000 and December 2023. Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.

In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all months between December 2000 and December 2023. Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.

In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all months between December 2000 and December 2023. Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.

0.58" of rain since yesterday here in East Nantmeal with 0.21" since midnight. Cloudy and chilly weather for May continues through the upcoming weekend with the greatest chances of rain being today and again on Saturday. The sun may should return again by Monday and we should finally see temps rising back to near normal levels again by Tuesday. Chester County records for today: High 95 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1900) / Low 32 degrees at Devault 1W (1954) / Rain 2.09" at East Nantmeal (2012)

0.58" of rain since yesterday here in East Nantmeal with 0.21" since midnight. Cloudy and chilly weather for May continues through the upcoming weekend with the greatest chances of rain being today and again on Saturday. The sun may should return again by Monday and we should finally see temps rising back to near normal levels again by Tuesday. Chester County records for today: High 95 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1900) / Low 32 degrees at Devault 1W (1954) / Rain 2.09" at East Nantmeal (2012)

Our wet year (we are almost 6 inches above normal so far in 2024) looks to continue with more shower chances just about every day over the next week with the exception of Friday. With the exception of the wettest day tomorrow we still could see some sun most of those days so not a total wash out! Chester County records for today: High 93 degrees in Phoenixville (1947) / Low 28.1 at Nottingham (2013) / Rain 2.15" at Devault 1W (1978)

Our wet year (we are almost 6 inches above normal so far in 2024) looks to continue with more shower chances just about every day over the next week with the exception of Friday. With the exception of the wettest day tomorrow we still could see some sun most of those days so not a total wash out! Chester County records for today: High 93 degrees in Phoenixville (1947) / Low 28.1 at Nottingham (2013) / Rain 2.15" at Devault 1W (1978)

A great day today with temps well into the 60's to near 70 for most spots. Rain chances ramp up again by later tomorrow and through much of the day on Wednesday. Thursday looks nice but then more shower chances to end the work week and into the weekend. Near normal temps for much of the week. Chester County records for today: High 92 degrees in West Chester (1991) / Low 28 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1928) / Rain 2.50" Morgantown/Elverson (2002)

A great day today with temps well into the 60's to near 70 for most spots. Rain chances ramp up again by later tomorrow and through much of the day on Wednesday. Thursday looks nice but then more shower chances to end the work week and into the weekend. Near normal temps for much of the week. Chester County records for today: High 92 degrees in West Chester (1991) / Low 28 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1928) / Rain 2.50" Morgantown/Elverson (2002)

Below is an analysis of 90 degree days at 8 airports across Eastern and for my Central forum friends also East Central PA. The yellow highlights decades that the number of 90 degree days declined at that location. We can clearly see that all locations have shown cyclical variations with the 2000's seeing 5 of 6 stations not starting obs in the 2000's with declining 90 degree days vs the 1990's. The 2010's saw increases at all locations....the 2020's are incomplete but the trend so far this decade has been a split with more 90 degree days at 5 airports and less at 3.

Below is an analysis of 90 degree days at 8 airports across Eastern and East Central PA. The yellow highlights decades that the number of 90 degree days declined at that location. We can clearly see that all locations have shown cyclical variations with the 2000's seeing 5 of 6 stations not starting obs in the 2000's with declining 90 degree days vs the 1990's. The 2010's saw increases at all locations....the 2020's are incomplete but the trend so far this decade has been a split with more 90 degree days at 5 airports and less at 3.

Below is an analysis of 90 degree days at 8 airports across Eastern and East Central PA. The yellow highlights decades that the number of 90 degree days declined at that location. We can clearly see that all locations have shown cyclical variations with the 2000's seeing 5 of 6 stations not starting obs in the 2000's with declining 90 degree days vs the 1990's. The 2010's saw increases at all locations....the 2020's are incomplete but the trend so far this decade has been a split with more 90 degree days at 5 airports and less at 3.

0.16" of rain since midnight here in East Nantmeal. Today will be our 3rd straight below normal temp day with most spots staying in the upper 50's for high temps. The sun returns tomorrow and temps should get close to normal at around 70 degrees. Rain chances again increase for Tuesday and Wednesday before better weather for Thursday and Friday. Chester County wide records for today: High 94 degrees at Phoenixville (1948) / Low 31 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1907) / Rain 3.07" in West Chester (1943)

0.16" of rain since midnight here in East Nantmeal. Today will be our 3rd straight below normal temp day with most spots staying in the upper 50's for high temps. The sun returns tomorrow and temps should get close to normal at around 70 degrees. Rain chances again increase for Tuesday and Wednesday before better weather for Thursday and Friday. Chester County wide records for today: High 94 degrees at Phoenixville (1948) / Low 31 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1907) / Rain 3.07" in West Chester (1943)

While today will be a bit warmer and sunnier than yesterday we will still end up with high temps in the low 60's a good 10 degrees cooler than we should be on May 11th. Rain returns tonight into tomorrow before the sun returns Monday. Chester County records for today: High 93 degrees at Kennett Square (1896) / Low 28 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1947) / Rain 2.95" Phoenixville (1931)

While today will be a bit warmer and sunnier than yesterday we will still end up with high temps in the low 60's a good 10 degrees cooler than we should be on May 11th. Rain returns tonight into tomorrow before the sun returns Monday. Chester County records for today: High 93 degrees at Kennett Square (1896) / Low 28 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1947) / Rain 2.95" Phoenixville (1931)

0.30" of rain here in East Nantmeal since yesterday with 0.17" since midnight. Today will be unseasonable chilly and wet day with temps in some higher spots remaining in the 40's. A brief break tomorrow with some sun before rain returns late at night into Sunday. One more nice day on Monday before showers return for much of the remainder of the week. Chester County daily records for today: High 94 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1896) / Record low 27 degrees at Coatesville 1SW and Devault 1W (1966) / Rain 1.76" at Coatesville 2W (1990)

0.30" of rain here in East Nantmeal since yesterday with 0.17" since midnight. Today will be unseasonable chilly and wet day with temps in some higher spots remaining in the 40's. A brief break tomorrow with some sun before rain returns late at night into Sunday. One more nice day on Monday before showers return for much of the remainder of the week. Chester County daily records for today: High 94 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1896) / Record low 27 degrees at Coatesville 1SW and Devault 1W (1966) / Rain 1.76" at Coatesville 2W (1990)