ChescoWx

Today looks to be our last chilly and dreary day with temps struggling to no higher than the mid 60's. The sun returns tomorrow. Our next chance of rain after today looks to be Wednesday night. Some lower spots could approach 80 degrees on Wednesday before we fall back to near normal temps around the mid 70's toward the Memorial Day Weekend! Chester County wide records for today: High 95 degrees on this date back in 1962 at Devault 1W, Coatesville 1SW and Phoenixville/ Record low occurred just last year with a 29.4 degree temperature in Warwick Township (2023) / Rain 2.68" at Marshallton (2015)

We have accounted for both the East Zone 102 with 12 of the 17 historical/current stations at the lower elevations typical of this zone. While we have 8 of the 9 stations in the West Zone 101 at the higher elevations typical of this NWS zone splits. So let's look at how the annual average temperature (raw and of course not adjusted) has run from 1893 to 2023. (blue lower / orange higher) Does anyone see a climate crisis in these annual average temperatures in Chester County PA? A mighty cyclical and relatively flat trend for sure!

Yep sure looks like a similar warming trajectory from the UHI PHL Airport vs all of those Chester County NWS COOP and MADIS sites just since 1980....which of course only includes our current warming cycle of climate change

This was already addressed the east and west is not as critical as the elevation above sea level which we have already detailed in the above post with those splits. There are of course today...consistent with the older data more stations at the relatively lower elevations. Not at the higher elevations. We will of course be analyzing data that reviews the data individually at both the relative higher and lower elevation locales to account for any variables due to these elevations.

LOL!! "quality sites" meaning those that disagree with your NWS Climate sites including both PHL and ILG Heat Island impacted stations and of course add in those after the fact chilling adjustments to the past and warming tweaks to the current data. Quite the different look from the above for Chester County if we don't make warming adjustments to the actual current data. Regarding the sites in more detail yes there was as a % more lower elevation sites in the past....which likely skewed those results too warm...even though they were in fact the warmest decades. The good news is we now have a good balance and mix that as long as we keep breaking it out by elevation will clearly show the non-adjusted factual real world warming or cooling depending on the current climate change cycle.

Our gloomy weather continues with limited sunshine over the next couple days and a good shot at some showers by tomorrow night. Sun returns Sunday and should stick around through Wednesday. Chester County records for today: High 94 degrees at Phoenixville (2017) / Low 29 degrees at Devault 1W (1956) / Rain 1.71" KMQS Airport in Coatesville (2018)

Our gloomy weather continues with limited sunshine over the next couple days and a good shot at some showers by tomorrow night. Sun returns Sunday and should stick around through Wednesday. Chester County records for today: High 94 degrees at Phoenixville (2017) / Low 29 degrees at Devault 1W (1956) / Rain 1.71" KMQS Airport in Coatesville (2018)

Nope not true at all. 27 NWS COOP stations included AWOS etc.

57.91 vs 58.1....wow!!

But of course neither KMDT or KCXY actually recorded a 58.1 degree mean temperature - MDT was 56.8 and CXY 57.9

Wow they actually warmed both KMDT and KCXY for the 17 straight years from 2001-2017 in the NOAA Climate set!!

they warmed each and every year.....correct?

Looks like the trick was indeed to clearly amplify the warming....I will run CXY also great stuff!!

You are indeed correct just like in Chester County the NCEI has in fact at least for every single year since 2000 adjusted the temperature for Harrisburg above what has been reported at MDT (see below) Do you know what if any other stations are included in the NCEI Harrisburg data?

I have not looked at MDT but I will do so and let's see how much and if they adjust after the fact

While not the sunniest of days, today and Friday should be dry and not too far from our normal high in the low 70's. We chill back down to below normal over the weekend with shower chances the highest on Saturday but dry again on Sunday. Chester County wide records for today: High 91 degrees at Phoenixville (1945) / Low 30 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1956) / Rain 2.16" at Glenmoore (2012)

They speak in general terms of site movements, time of observation adjustments and equipment issues. The detail appears to not be applied at a station level they simply apply it to the county wide averages.

While not the sunniest of days, today and Friday should be dry and not too far from our normal high in the low 70's. We chill back down to below normal over the weekend with shower chances the highest on Saturday but dry again on Sunday. Chester County wide records for today: High 91 degrees at Phoenixville (1945) / Low 30 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1956) / Rain 2.16" at Glenmoore (2012)

Again Charlie has an answer to his question "Why are they cooler?" His answer is that they are further N+W, higher elevation. Again let's go to the facts for the truth. According to the NWS Mount Holly CWA forecast zones - of the current 16 stations reporting 9 of them are in the Eastern Zone of Chester County and only 7 are in the Western Zone. So they are in fact NOT more located to the N and W. So now how does the elevation look at these stations? Well in fact 11 of them are at lower elevations below 465 feet ASL while only 5 are located at greater than 525 feet ASL. So there are actually more at lower than higher elevations. Facts over feelings as always!

As always Charlie you are just not seeming to understand or comprehend the actual depth and breath of real world data we are now showing here. Let's review again - There is no such thing as a ChescoWX data set you keep talking about in the data we are reviewing here. There are of course not simply 2 Coatesville COOP sites and "Paul's House" in the data set!! The data set we are looking at includes at least 27 National Weather Service COOP/AWOS and MADIS sites in the historical data set between 1894 and Today. Including in the current data set here in 2024 an active 16 currently reporting NWS/AWOS and MADIS reporting sites in the current data. Charlie just to put a a fine point on this so you understand. The Chester County PA data we present here is far from what you call the ChescoWX data which only includes 3 stations....it is a robust 27 stations across more than 130 years of NWS Data. Is this getting clearer for you?? As we yet again showed you the actual Chester County PA data is far from "in good agreement" with the PHL UHI Airport data and of course as you see is not "warming strongly since 1970" in Chester County. This is not that difficult Charlie!!

While some very slight warming during our current warming cycle in rural Chester County as you can see below - certainly not at the rate of PHL. See below updated comparison since 1980 see below again nowhere near the warming rate!

Why start in 1995 we do have data back to 1941 for PHL (RED TREND) a quick comparison vs. All Chester County (ORANGE TREND) stations paints a quite different story in trend lines. Rural counties like Chester County clearly show only minor if any real warming in comparison. As I showed before the real UHI impact started in 1970 at PHL as I detailed with the construction projects earlier. Look at how the lines diverge from 1970 on as the UHI impact at PHL accelerates!

I will repost as it seems no one has been able to come up with where the heck are the cooling adjustments for the known PHL UHI problem??? Below is an analysis of the PHL Airport average annual temperature from 1941 through 2023. I have overlaid the adjusted NCEI temperatures vs the actual reported averages. Why in the last 30 years have the PHL Airport Temps been adjusted upward in 19 of the last 30 years despite UHI?? And the overall cumulative adjustments over those years has been an overall net upward adjustment of 3.45 degrees in PHL actual reported temps. Thoughts????

since facts are over feelings...they don't feel any abuse as the truth sets them free!!!

In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all available months between December 2000 and December 2023. Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.