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Everything posted by ChescoWx
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Plenty of inconsistencies in the above Glenmoore PA comments. First we are told that there was not any temperature data at all for this station and only rain. Later...sorry no actually it looks like the temperature sensor was installed in 2009. But as we see below we have the evidence that the observer has been reporting temperatures to the NWS consistently at least as far back as nearly 20 years! (see below August 2005 handwritten submitted obs). So Then we see that the NCEI Historical Observing Metadata Repository site has begun to erase the fact that data was observed at least that far back.... but has not yet apparently updated for 2009 (still listing temp obs). NCEI true to their word is well on the way to revising the past data as we can see they have "cleaned up" August 2005 below with their updated computer output eliminating the Glenmoore handwritten obs. Call me stunned NCEI adjusting or eliminating data after the fact - I never would have thought such a thing LOL!! Now we need to ask well where is the analysis to support the deletion of this station data? Well they do mention above these supposed reliability concerns....sounds fair but where is the analysis against a control station or 2 to show how unreliable this station supposedly is? Is that station running "statistically" higher or lower than surrounding "valid" stations to invalidate the readings? Well, no details have been provided of that analysis.... just we feel like there are "reliability concerns" and it is not NWS approved. A little analysis and comparison to the closest surrounding stations does not show any issues with the data. In fact in the final year that Glenmoore/Coatesville and East Nantmeal (2007) all reported they were within 0.1 degree of each other in average temperature. East Nantmeal is within 2 nautical miles of the Glenmoore COOP observer within 60 feet of elevation. So even though not NWS approved that data sure passes the statistical p-value to validate and remains extremely consistent with the current Glenmoore MADIS station and of course East Nantmeal.
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All spots across the County exceeded the 90 degree mark with the oh so close exception of East Nantmeal where we could "only" reach 89.9 degrees!. The next coolest spot was West Grove at 90.9. Some of the hotter spots included Chester Springs 95 degrees and. KOQN Brandywine Airport also 95. The hot temps looks to continue for the next few days before we drop back into the 80's by Wednesday. Along with the temp drop will come increasing shower chances by Tuesday night. Each day from Wednesday thru Saturday will feature a chance at some showers. Chester County records for today: High 103 degrees at Phoenixville (2010)/ Low was 47 degrees at West Chester (2001) / Rain 2.23" at Coatesville (1907)
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All spots across the County exceeded the 90 degree mark with the oh so close exception of East Nantmeal where we could "only" reach 89.9 degrees!. The next coolest spot was West Grove at 90.9. Some of the hotter spots included Chester Springs 95 degrees and. KOQN Brandywine Airport also 95. The hot temps looks to continue for the next few days before we drop back into the 80's by Wednesday. Along with the temp drop will come increasing shower chances by Tuesday night. Each day from Wednesday thru Saturday will feature a chance at some showers. Chester County records for today: High 103 degrees at Phoenixville (2010)/ Low was 47 degrees at West Chester (2001) / Rain 2.23" at Coatesville (1907)
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Even though it has an E flag on the Data Calendar below there actually is submitted NWS Coop forms (see below) that show the actual observations taken. The dataset I am using for the analysis matches the below official coop data form and does not use the estimated figures on the data calendar. You can see the differences below. Not sure why they would put estimates in when we have actual data?
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Hey Charlie looks like quite a bit of missing data under the IEM sites. To your point they list Glenmoore as having no temperature data for March 2009 (see below) but there were temperature obs taken per obs sheet. They do correctly record the precipitation however. These reading align with my dataset for Glenmoore for that month. The metadata sourced from the Penn State Climate site also shows no temps and only rain data....strange!
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The only issue I found during my QC was that they had simply mirrored Devault data with Phoenixville from 1893 thru 1951. Devault did not begin daily temperature obs till 1951....so I deleted all of those years for Devault. Otherwise the data is consistent but with clear obs variations between the various stations see below for example.
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Most locations exceeded 90 degrees yesterday with the only exceptions being the higher spots like West Grove (88.2) and East Nantmeal (88.5). The heat advisory will continue through tomorrow with temps again in the 90's at most spots. There is a chance of some scattered storms today with a better chance by Tuesday and through mid-week. While year to date we are still over 2" above normal rainfall the last 2 months we are running about 2.5" below normal. Chester County records for today: High 103 degrees at Phoenixville (2010) / Low 45 degrees at Morgantown/Elverson (1979)/ Rain 4.15" at Chadds Ford (1989)
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Most locations exceeded 90 degrees yesterday with the only exceptions being the higher spots like West Grove (88.2) and East Nantmeal (88.5). The heat advisory will continue through tomorrow with temps again in the 90's at most spots. There is a chance of some scattered storms today with a better chance by Tuesday and through mid-week. While year to date we are still over 2" above normal rainfall the last 2 months we are running about 2.5" below normal. Chester County records for today: High 103 degrees at Phoenixville (2010) / Low 45 degrees at Morgantown/Elverson (1979)/ Rain 4.15" at Chadds Ford (1989)
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No worries Don....I have made a few of those myself! Even though we may disagree on some of these big issues I still enjoy your posts!! take care!!
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And no matter how many machine produced non-Chester County obs you put forth.....we know it is not real or factual data. The facts are not supportive....I feel your pain!!
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Fortunately we have plenty more stations that say.....sorry Charlie!!
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Not true again Charlie there are more stations similar to the old lower elevation sites than the relative higher and we can split them out and analyze them see below summer only lower elevation (warmer) sub 410 ft. stations. Same story cyclical changes and minor unalarming gentle warming.
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A great point again from Chris Martz. "You’d think hearing the good news that the planet isn’t facing some sort of climate catastrophe would bring a sigh of relief to climate alarmists. Instead, they cling to irrational fear and get angry when presented with evidence that extreme weather isn’t increasing (generally) and that human welfare has never been better than it is today across all metrics that have at least some link to climate (e.g., crop yields, life expectancy, nourishment and to an extent, disaster-related deaths). Until the data on these metrics begins to trend in the opposite direction, I remain unconvinced that we’re facing a “climate crisis.” People who suffer from “anxiety” over the weather suffer from a mental health issue. It’s not a “different opinion,” it’s not normal. If it has to be normalized, it isn’t normal. Period." I will do my small part by continuing to share the good news that at least here in Chester County PA our climate is not warming at an unprecedented or alarming rate.....see our unscary summer warming above!!
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Actually Charlie when we exclude the Phoenixville Station.....the 1930's were still the warmest decade in County history. Summer temps are basically flat....nothing alarming here at all!
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I thought those that he answered were well thought out.....but as always with Don plenty of conjecture and some fearful prognostications (3 meter or more sea level rise over the next 75 years?)
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Phoenix Experiences its Hottest June on Record
ChescoWx replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
It's simply called recent weather.... -
Facts over feelings!!!
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Red Herring = No data
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A few spots across the county saw some showers this AM with the most I could find being the 0.23" at Atglen. .07" fell in East Nantmeal. The NWS has posted a heat advisory for today through tomorrow. Most lower locations will reach the 90's today with only the higher spots possibly staying in the high 80's. Rain chances increase a bit by later tonight and tomorrow. Sunday and Monday look dry with temps likely to be well into the 80's to near 90 in spots. Chester County records for today: High 102 degrees at Sadsburyville (1919) / Low 47 degrees at Coatesville (1909) / Rain 2.95" at Coatesville (1965)
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A few spots across the county saw some showers this AM with the most I could find being the 0.23" at Atglen. .07" fell in East Nantmeal. The NWS has posted a heat advisory for today through tomorrow. Most lower locations will reach the 90's today with only the higher spots possibly staying in the high 80's. Rain chances increase a bit by later tonight and tomorrow. Sunday and Monday look dry with temps likely to be well into the 80's to near 90 in spots. Chester County records for today: High 102 degrees at Sadsburyville (1919) / Low 47 degrees at Coatesville (1909) / Rain 2.95" at Coatesville (1965)
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We have much better station coverage and representation today and going forward across Chester County than we have ever had in the past. That said the old stations are well represented with some stations within a couple NM and at the same elevation (West Chester / Devault). There is a great mix of lower and higher elevation sites. By analyzing this data we actually can and are getting more accurate data.
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Even if you choose to use the post hoc adjusted temps....the temperature trends in my one little county here in the US remain very far from alarming or concerning at all....that is the facts. No doomsday trend lines here!
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"coffin" huh....you must be a great conversationalist at parties!!
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Wow!! Okay I am good to play along with this....so what models that you believe are showing you civilization collapsing?? You are probably part of the group that is convincing young folks today to avoid having children as the future is so bleak....scary indeed!!
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Why alarmists and doomers are losing the battle of trying so darn hard to convince folks that our current cyclical climate change is so incredibly alarming: Alarmists will state that “Weather ≠ climate. One colder than normal week or a snowy than normal season is of course not evidence against the overall long-term trend. Cold extremes can still occur in a warming world.” If we show a stat that is only analyzing the US or cough cough Chester County PA we will of course hear “Well you do know that the US covers less than 2% of global surface area. So, your point is ridiculous. Global stats are all that matters. You the "climate denier" are clearly engaging in cherry-picking of data to fit your narrative.” But then we just look at our current weather this week which is as we all agree is NOT Climate! , Yet our friends the climate alarmists are blaming Hurricane Beryl and the "unprecedented" SW US heatwave on man's carbon transgressions: Don't you know Paul that “Hurricane Beryl is being fueled by climate related record high sea surface temperatures, which is the result of man's burning of carbons??" But wait my alarmist friends , I thought you tell us that “weather ≠ climate”? Doesn't that still apply here? Or, does it only apply when the weather frustratingly doesn't fit your simple narrative? The truth is that of course the alarmists and doomers can't have it both ways no matter how they may try and twist the actual facts vs. what they are feeling.