ChescoWx

It was February 13th 10.5" at East Nantmeal / 9.3" West Caln and up in Berks County at Huff's Church 9.4"

The HRRR radar depicts the snow starting by 2pm across Chesco with the heaviest (see below) at about 5pm.....not a great scenario for rush hour travel if this comes to pass!

The NWS just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow from 3pm till 10pm see below ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, the eastern shores of Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 3 PM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

Since 2020 below are the biggest snow events Jan 31 - Feb 2, 2021 - 16.6" East Nantmeal / 13.5" East Vincent / 12.2" East Coventry Feb 13, 2024 - East Nantmeal 10.5" / West Caln 9.3" / Warwick Park 8.0" Feb 7, 2021 - 8.8" East Nantmeal / 8.3" Elverson / 6.0" Exton Dec 17, 2020 - 9.6" Elverson / 9.3" East Nantmeal / 8.2" East Vincent

Feb 13th last year 10.5" of snow - winter storm warning with that one for Chesco

12z runs

Today, while still below normal temperatures will be our warmest day for quite a while. Tomorrow we will be a bit chillier than today, and we will likely see our last above freezing temperatures for about 10 days. Some light snow is possible by tomorrow evening with a coating to an inch in spots. Cold and dry for the weekend before our snow chances increase on Sunday evening into Monday.

Today, while still below normal temperatures will be our warmest day for quite a while. Tomorrow we will be a bit chillier than today, and we will likely see our last above freezing temperatures for about 10 days. Some light snow is possible by tomorrow evening with a coating to an inch in spots. Cold and dry for the weekend before our snow chances increase on Sunday evening into Monday.

The climate summary for Chester County PA finds that 2024 was our warmest year since way back in 1913! Overall, this was the third warmest year since 1893 with an average annual temperature of 55.15 degrees. The warmest years here in Chester County were way back in 1931 (warmest) with an average temperature of 55.73 degrees followed closely by that equally warm year even further back in time of 1913 at 55.18 degrees. Precipitation wise this was the 48th driest year with an average across all reporting stations of 39.57" of rain and melted snow equivalent but only 2.50" below our normal levels. Snowfall wise our 25.7" of snow were almost 10 inches below our normal snow of 35" here in Chester County. Below is the climate data for the 18 current NWS/MADIS and trained observer sites here in Chester County PA.

The climate summary for Chester County PA finds that 2024 was our warmest year since way back in 1913! Overall, this was the third warmest year since 1893 with an average annual temperature of 55.15 degrees. The warmest years here in Chester County were way back in 1931 (warmest) with an average temperature of 55.73 degrees followed closely by that equally warm year even further back in time of 1913 at 55.18 degrees. Precipitation wise this was the 48th driest year with an average across all reporting stations of 39.57" of rain and melted snow equivalent but only 2.50" below our normal levels. Snowfall wise our 25.7" of snow were almost 10 inches below our normal snow of 35" here in Chester County. Below is the climate data for the 18 current NWS/MADIS and trained observer sites here in Chester County PA.

The ensemble run of the European has started a slight "trend" back north....below is the 6z run

Happy New Year to all! A wind advisory remains in effect till 10pm tonight. Temperatures today will be near normal (low to mid 40's) before falling later in the day. We finished 2024 as the 3rd warmest year in my 21 years of observations here in East Nantmeal. I will update with the annual climate summary for the rest of Chester County later. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be in the low to mid 30's. We could see a period of light snow on Friday PM. Temps remain below freezing this weekend with snow chances increasing by Sunday night into Monday.

Happy New Year to all! A wind advisory remains in effect till 10pm tonight. Temperatures today will be near normal (low to mid 40's) before falling later in the day. We finished 2024 as the 3rd warmest year in my 21 years of observations here in East Nantmeal. I will update with the annual climate summary for the rest of Chester County later. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be in the low to mid 30's. We could see a period of light snow on Friday PM. Temps remain below freezing this weekend with snow chances increasing by Sunday night into Monday.

With another 0.46" of rain this evening we are now over 0.84" of normal precipitation for December. I remember when some folks at the start of November were concerned about drought conditions etc.... welp we will finish 2024 at almost 96% of normal precipitation across most of the area.

With another 0.46" of rain this evening we are now over 0.84" of normal precipitation for December. I remember when some folks at the start of November were concerned about drought conditions etc.... welp we will finish 2024 at almost 96% of normal precipitation across most of the area.

The chances this 12z run of models is the actual solution.....slim and none!

12z Euro also has a suppressed solution with nada for the Sunday/Monday event.....

Truth! I always expect suppressed GFS runs with any potential east coast events. I suspect it comes north again at 18z but book another suppressed version like this one by Thursday or so...

As suspected the 12z GFS presents it's suppressed version....big snows all the way down in NC....

Happy New Year's Eve to all of you! Today looks like our last day that will be well above normal for quite a while. Unfortunately, while we start out sunny clouds will increase and some poorly timed showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder will arrive from the west. Rain should enter Western Chester County during the 7pm hour or so and with some luck will exit stage right (east) before the midnight hour. Our step down to well below normal temperatures starts tomorrow with closer to normal highs in the mid 40's. By the time we get to Friday we may start a pretty long stretch of freezing days with highs over the weekend struggling to escape the 20's. Snow chances increase by the end of the weekend and as we move into the first full week of 2025.

Happy New Year's Eve to all of you! Today looks like our last day that will be well above normal for quite a while. Unfortunately, while we start out sunny clouds will increase and some poorly timed showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder will arrive from the west. Rain should enter Western Chester County during the 7pm hour or so and with some luck will exit stage right (east) before the midnight hour. Our step down to well below normal temperatures starts tomorrow with closer to normal highs in the mid 40's. By the time we get to Friday we may start a pretty long stretch of freezing days with highs over the weekend struggling to escape the 20's. Snow chances increase by the end of the weekend and as we move into the first full week of 2025.

In this type of pattern suppression will be the biggest obstacle......that said I suspect a GFS run soon that has a big event back on the table and then at some point this week a big miss to the south.

Below is a listing of the Greatest December Snowstorms in Chester / SE Berks County PA History

Below is a listing of the Greatest December Snowstorms in Chester / SE Berks County PA History

12z Euro with a plowable event for many using Kutchera method to account for fluff factor etc.