ChescoWx

There are so many examples of huge differences over short distances in Chester and Berks County - how about the March 19-21, 1958 snow event?? 50 inches at Morgantown while only 12 miles SE of there at Coatesville only 19" and yet then we go just 11 miles east of Coatesville and find West Chester back up to 32". Do we just go back and say Morgantown is wrong because it is an outlier? Good news for that storm is we have photos of the snow depth with trucks trapped at the PA Turnpike entrace. You cannot go back and disprove snow totals they are very very variable and to Mike G's post the set ups are different plus in the absence of any radar data to actually track and validate the banding it is impossible. Revisionist history like wiping data will not change the fact it happened

Hi LV - you need to relax and calm down a bit - it's just weather obs!. The late great Mr. W.T. Gordon was the long standing valued official cooperative weather observer for Coatesville for 36 years (1894 to 1930) without missing a day! I can and will give you many examples where his snow totals were less than surrounding areas....snowfall and banding is highly variable....look at that Morgantown example in March 1958.

Most of the models have trended much drier and further north....likely won't have a clear picture till 0z Tuesday with this set up

Of course all that matters regarding snow accumulation is what accumulates on non-paved surfaces. So while grass is not ideal (hopefully folks have a snow board or at worst a table) With a wee bit of elevation which the models are picking up on - if reality is as modeled (not saying it is) then we will see some folks reporting accumulations of snow. I have recorded 6" of snow at times without a flake on the roads or my driveway....it is still officially 6" of snow

The attached couple articles may help see the differences in snowfall across short distances...clearly in addition to topography there is banding etc. which can contribute to huge variation across relatively short distances. https://www.inquirer.com/philly/blogs/phillylists/Historic-snowfalls-Suburbs-totals-dominate.html https://billypenn.com/2018/03/07/why-do-phillys-western-suburbs-always-get-more-snow/

It is both best available and included as part of the record by the NCDC and PA State Climatologist. I have looked at other stations - West Chester Reported almost 40" that month....not unusual to have major differences across Chester County as you move from SE to NW or N to S. I have seen many occasions with huge differences. A great example is Morgantown in 1958 just 8 miles up the road from here recorded 50" of snow fell in one day with trucks stranded at the Turnpike entrace while down the road in West Chester (less than 15NM SE only 10" of snow fell....

I agree - as someone I work with once said - once seen it cannot be unseen LOL!! While there was no NWS it was validated by who was the official weather service prior to NWS formation - The US Dept of Agriculture - see the below part of the offical record from the NCDC

LOL! they were indeed certified by the NWS offices and are part of the official records for Pennsylvania.

Latest runs of the both the Euro and GFS on board for some accumulating snow for the North and West Philly burbs by Wednesday evening

Great books!

I am considering authoring the definitive "Everything You Wanted to Know About the Unique and Dynamic Climate of Chester County PA In the Philadelphia Suburbs" Is the title too long? Is $14.90 the right price? So many questions....

Cecily Tynan posted a stat last night on the news for the PHL Airport that winters have warmed almost 5 degrees in the last 50 years (see below) So of course I had to go back and do the analysis for 120 years for Chester County. To remove any bias of any one reporting station I used an average of all 8 available NWS COOP sites (with no less than 4 and as many as 8 sites) to see if on average our winters (DJF) have really warmed by almost 5 degrees? The answer of course away from PHL is a clear NO for the Chester County philly burbs! In fact from 90 years ago the most recent decade winters were actually 0.5 degrees colder Quote

Looking at November averages by Decade since the 1890's indicate with the most recently completed full decade (2010's) that we may indeed be heading back to a cooler cycle. Of note in ranking all decades since the 1890's - 5 of the 8 warmest November decades occurred in Chester County prior to the 1940's. With the exception of the very warm 2000's some very consistent readings with the 1900's and 2010's almost exactly the same

November stats below - on top of being the 64th coldest (+10th below normal in last 15 years) it was the 16th driest on record since 1894. Warmest day 69.2 (18th) - coldest 26.9 (24th)

I see ABE reported their 18th coldest November in 90 years of records. Here in Chesco only good for 64th coldest in 128 years of records....but of note this is now the 10th below normal November in the last 15 years!! November is looking like our peak of cold season departure months during our current phase of cyclical climate change

30% chance tonight in the NW burbs....

don't remember seeing that a pronounced southern stream feature on the earlier Euro runs....interesting!

ICON with a more southern view - GFS gives Western Chesco 1 to 2" - growing consensus of some light snow accumulations - not a common occurrence in these parts....in November

Beautiful day across the area albeit a bit chillier than normal. Of note this morning's low of 28.6 here in East Nantmeal was our coldest since the 26.3 back on April 3rd. The 30.2 in Sea Isle City NJ was the coldest and only the 2nd below freezing low this season. The 1st was last Saturday at exactly 32 degrees. Happy Holiday week to all!!

Looks increasingly likely we will finish with below normal temps for November - this would be the 7th below normal November in the last 10 years here in NW Chesco. However, maybe a nice warm up to start December??

Hi Kamu - 69.2 to be precise

1st flurries already happened here in the NW burbs....1st measurable guess is December 15th

Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now