ChescoWx

WXSIM with 0z NAM and 18z GFS for NW Chesco - 3" to 5" of snow/sleet Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of snow and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 29. Wind south around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation around 2 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. Snow likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 20. Wind south-southwest around 10 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.

Picked up 0.3" of snow with the squall that came through around 10pm temp down to 30.5

WXSIM with 12z NAM/GFS data trended a bit snowier but still mainly sleet with temps never rising above freezing in NW Chester County PA during the storm. Timing - Snow arrives by 1230pm briefly heavy before changing to IP by 2pm then IP heavy at times before mixing back with snow by 6pm and ending by 730pm - total snow/sleet accumulation 3" to 4"

Keep in mind NAM at this range not real useful with qpf....it will NAM someone by Saturday 0z run

From that many days out and always WXSIM is only as good as the GFS and NAM at that range.- models suck this year!!..good to see it closing in closer to reality as we draw closer!

WXSIM continues the trend toward a sleet fest for NW Chesco....I suspect areas northeast bound toward ABE will have a plowable snow/sleet amount greater than 3" before znizzle or drizzle Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill around 18. Wind south-southeast around 5 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight. A mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Breezy. Low 31, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 30. Wind south around 13 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Little or no ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.

Latest Wxsim for Chester County PA a sleet fest with up to 4" of snow/sleet total.... Saturday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill ranging from 13 to 20. Wind south-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the morning, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight. A mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Breezy. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 18 to 29. Wind south around 12 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.

Wxsim looks a bit tamer now with 3" to 6" of snow/IP - it will change as the models move....stay tuned! Saturday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 32. Wind chill around 19. Wind south-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight. A mix of snow and rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 28. Wind south around 11 mph, gusting to 23 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches.

Latest Wxsim for next weekend with 12z NAM/GFS combo - of course we don't shovel model snow!! Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill ranging from 11 to 18. Wind east-southeast around 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. A chance of a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 29. Wind south around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.

Looking ahead to next weekend the WXSIM has light snow arriving by 7pm Friday night becoming all sleet by 10pm with heavy sleet at times through mid morning than becoming ZR in the PM and finally all rain by 4pm - total snow (mainly sleet) accumulation 3" to 4" - temps than plummet on Sunday with a low Monday AM of just 5 degrees with a high on Monday of 13 above

For our 2nd straight day a record high...and this time an all-time all elevation Chester County record of 64.4 at 1:44am besting the old mark of 61.8 set just 3 years ago. Also recorded 0.35" of rain with the frontal passage with a high wind gust of 24mph

JB excited this AM with pattern change....while I see the change coming....reversing winter warmth thus far?? I am not biting at this point "Since Christmas, our forecast team has been touting the pattern from the 20th on getting cold ( transition the 16-20. The turn around may rival the winter of 65-66 CFSV2 500 MB/temps 30 days starting Jan 20. If correct would erase the warmth of the winter thus far!"

63.7 currently which is the high temp - also represents a elevation record high for the day - eclipsing the old mark of 59.6 in 2014. The all-time Chester County mark of 67 set back in 1975 appears to remain safe

Agreed 100% - great idea!!

East Nantmeal Township - Chester County PA 8pm Obs Light Snow and 32.5 but appears accumulation is over. Total accumulation was 1.5" (ties for our largest snow of the season!) back on December 11th. With our 1.5" of snow today and the 1st for the new year we are at 69% of normal snow for January through today (2.2"). Seasonal Snow now stands at 3.5" which is only 42% of our normal seasonal snow of 8.4" through the 7th.

Heaviest snow as back edge approaches starting to cover paved surfaces temp at 32.9 - will measure when finished but had 0.5" at 5PM maybe approach the 1" mark - 2nd biggest snow of the season!!

East Nantmeal Township Chester County PA 5pm obs Light snow temp 33.7

Snow coming down at a near moderate clip with temp down to 37.6 - non paved quickly getting covered

Very Light Snow has begun in East Nantmeal with a temp at 41.0 DP 21.8

Latest WXSIM with 6z data holds serve with Snow arriving by 330pm. Snow gets heavy between 6 and 7pm before ending by 11pm. Total snow accumulation of 3.8" to 4.5". I still expect this to trend lower with the 12z runs... this will be a highly elevation dependent event with the only chance at approaching the above levels being above 650 ft - as Steve noted above lower spots I would be surprised if lower elevations see any more than 2" of snow at most.

WXSIM for NW Chester County with 0z data ticks up a bit again now showing 4" to 4.5" of snow by 11pm....

Nice FGEN forcing at about 8 to 9pm tomorrow....

WXSIM with 18z data has snow arriving by 4pm with some heavy snow around 7pm and ending by 10pm - total snow now up to 2" to 3"...it will change with 0z runs

Latest WXSIM for NW Chester County PA continues to have snow developing by 330pm and all over by 7pm with between 0.8" to 1.3" of snow