ChescoWx

Wxsim with 18z NAM and 12z GFS has a wintry week ahead with 5" to 6" of snow/ice by next Sunday Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A mix of snow and rain likely. High 33. Wind south-southeast around 3 mph in the morning, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, with scattered light frost possible. Low 23. Wind northwest around 4 mph. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the afternoon. High 33. Wind northwest around 4 mph. Wednesday night: Dense overcast, with areas of light frost likely. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 26. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. Snow likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill around 22. Wind east-northeast around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Thursday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the evening. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 28. Wind chill as low as 22. Wind east-northeast around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. Friday: Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 31. Wind northeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Friday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy, with moderate to heavy frost. Low 27. Wind northeast near calm. Saturday: Dense overcast. High 30. Wind northeast near calm. Saturday night: Dense overcast, with light to moderate frost. Patchy light fog after midnight. Low 28. Wind east around 2 mph in the evening, becoming northeast after midnight. Sunday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill around 21. Wind northeast around 8 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the morning, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Sunday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight, with areas of light frost likely. A mix of sleet and snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 29. Wind chill as low as 20. Wind north around 9 mph, gusting to 19 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about a quarter inch.

Snowmageddon is here!!! enjoy

Coldest AM this season at 15.0 - lowest prior was 15.9 on 12/19 - only our 3rd sub-20 reading of the entire winter

To put this in perspective....over the last 7 days we have recorded 25.7" of snow here in Chester County PA. The 21.4" of snow already recorded this month is good for the most monthly snow in February since the 39.4" back in 2014. It is also already the 14th snowiest February in Chester County history. That said a long way to go to match the top 2 snowy Feb since 1894. #1 being the 69.8" that fell in 1899 and only 11 years ago the 62.8" from Snowmageddon in 2010. However, this week may try to continue to move us up in the record books

Here in the NW Philly burbs of Chester County PA with today's 8.8" of snow we have now recorded 25.7" of snow since last Sunday. The 21.4" of snow already recorded this month is good for the most monthly snow in February since the 39.4" back in 2014. It is also already the 14th snowiest February in Chester County history. That said a long way to go to match the top 2 snowy Feb since 1894. #1 being the 69.8" that fell in 1899 and only 11 years ago the 62.8" from Snowmageddon in 2010. However, this week may try to continue to move us up in the record books

East Nantmeal Twp - Chester County PA 12:30pm obs Total snow so far 8.8" Last hour 0.8"

East Nantmeal Twp - Chester County PA Total Snow so far 8.0" with 1.5" last hour Temp 33.9 with still moderate snow falling

I only though 4" at most but the band set up a good bit further NW than modeled...even NWS only had us at 2" to 4" - elevation likely has helped here as temps are marginal and now actually above freezing but still accumulating here. will take another measurement at 1130a

East Nantmeal Township - Chester County PA - 1030am obs Snow really "slowed" down the past hour - ONLY 2.3" during the 930a-1030a hour following the 2.5" from 830-930a - total snow now 6.5" Still S+ but temp up to 32.7 on VP and 32.0 on Tempest

930am obs East Nantmeal Township Chester County PA Snow last hour 2.5" Snow total so far 4.3"

Dumping!

Unfortunately I think where the heaviest banding is they may be just a bit north of freezing and may lose some accumulation to that....

1.8" so far in East Nantmeal Twp - temp down to 31.7

Heavy Snow in East Nantmeal already looks like about 2"

Started as snow here despite temps peaking at 36.4 at 4:36am now down to 32.8 on VP2 and 30.9 on Tempest Snow has picked up in intensity and all surfaces are covered even the driveway blacktop is covered at the edges close to the snow cover

Below is my 1st and Final Forecast for this event - Good luck to all!!

Latest update from the NWS

NAM QPF is overdone...but better thermals to the N and W will even out from PHL to NW of fall line in my view. That said I am still concerned that where the heaviest precip or banding is could lose a bit more at the start....again why a more blended approach like the NWS P&C has makes a lot of sense to me

Wxsim with 6z data has a wintry week ahead with 13" to 20" of snow and ice during the week an then temps staying in the teens for highs next Saturday Sunday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 30. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the morning, becoming north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Wednesday night: Dense overcast, with light to moderate frost. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind north-northwest near calm in the evening, becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the morning. Snow likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill around 21. Wind east around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Thursday night: Dense overcast, with areas of light frost likely. A chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow in the evening, then a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Low 29, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 22. Wind east around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Friday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning, then a mix of rain and snow likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind east around 7 mph in the morning, becoming north-northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Friday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight, with moderate to heavy frost. Snow likely. Breezy and cold. Low 16. Wind chill ranging from 8 to 26. Wind northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 26 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches.

I strongly suspect Sunday will be an elevation driven event with marginal boundary layer temps at play....some folks S and E of the fall line will lose some of that accumulating snow to cooling down the column....snow depth is indeed the better way to view this event IMOH

East Nantmeal Twp Just measured may have melted a bit but only 0.3" Temp 34.4

While it is still snowing with temps above freezing looks like we can call this one final. So let's review the storm and where it stands in historical Western Chester County PA history The 16.6" of snow accumulated as follows over the last 4 days 1/31/21 - 4.3" snow / 2/1/21 - 9.3" snow (including 2.3" IP) / 2/2/21 - 2.5" snow and 2/3/21 - 0.5" snow This snow storm now ranks as the 21st greatest snow event in Chester County PA history from 1894 to Present - top 25 storms are below

Steady snow here in East Nantmeal Twp. with this latest band - have added another 0.5" since midnight. May have to measure one final....final time for storm total - now up to 16.6" of snow