ChescoWx

Steve D with NJPA Weather also believes this will tick south by tomorrow's 12z runs...he has 4"-8" of snow to a mix in Philly 8"-12" Just NW of Philly out to a LNS/Lionville/Conshy/TTB line NW of that line he has an 8" to 12" + forecast with less mixing

More from JB on why the EURO is right "Forgot this: A positively tilted trough has the deepening for the surface low rely more on warm advection( run to where the warmth is) The old rule is negative tilt, deepen from top down until the surface can get going and feed back. Neutral tilt about 50/50, positive the deepening is more from warn advection and as the system deepens the upper feature gets pulled tighter toward it. Dr John Cahir, used to call these positvely tilted front runners with most of the precip in front of them. In any case the new nam does not have the look of a storm that bowls through the mountains, but extends east It is highly unlikely the reform will be this far north. The reason: The isobars in front of the storm at 42 hours, seen here are pointed AWAY from the low center, rather than toward it. So the warm air is having an easy time heading northeast, but not north. The all is for this to redevelop near the mouth of the Delaware, not off Toms River. Once again though its a 50 mile edge forecast for the biggest market in the nation. Given the parallels I see to the position of the storm and the 500 mb forecast, which is very similar to 1967 once to NYC, ( that was a positively tilted trough that went ti neutral, and again I realize the storms evolved different, but the marriage of the analog is like a guy and a girl that came from different towns but wound up together.. arent I romantic?) I will hold with the 6-10 locally 15 ( forecast within 25 miles of CP) I can see the 2 or 3 and rain, certainly, but I can see the 15 too. In any case I did not mention this earlier. That waa term is just as important as upper divergence and once that southwest wind is howling out over the water east of the MA coast it will try to draw the redevelopment toward it, and it will very hard with the low having to reform with all the other factors going on, for it to bowl through the mountains and have the needed south to southeast wind in the warm sector to push that front north"

JB post this AM on why the GFS will correct back south by tomorrow AM "When I laid this storm out earlier in the week, when models were well south, the call was for a low to get to southern Ohio, then reform on the coast and head out s of New England. GIven that the corridor of heaviest snow is now closer to I-80 than I-70, there has been a north adjustment, not so much in the position of the low over Se Ohio, but further east. But should that continue. I dont think so, it may continue on the models till tomorrow then come back south again. Why? "The negative NAO right now the track will be influenced. The GFS, perhaps correctly, simply bully the storm through the mountains . This looks wrong. First of all cold dry air is drilling south off the east coast. This air will be pulled back in as the storm comes in, and though it would have warmed on its journey south, it cools coming back if moistened. 2cnd. Where ever the precip breaks out, the cold air will fight, even if the fresh cold to the north has not arrived. This is a cold air mass, its still cold advecting, Hard to believe within 48 hours and after so much precip, its routed. 3rd. The front from the north. This is going to keep pressing east of the mountains and as it does it will be drawn in. The fact is that a storm pulls air from every where, including in front of it, toward it. If you think about how that works, the wind blowing from higher pressure to lower pressure in the low levels, when the rate of Warm advection is greater than rate of warming in the low levels, is what leads to upward motion. Have a reason for the low levels to fight, there is greater overrunning which in turn changes the pressure field. Moral: Watch where it starts as snow.. chances are any place more than 100 miles north of that stays snow ( with some sleet at the height of the storm) The ECMWF ensemble shows what I am talking about, as it has the "damming" look for the low, with the warm front being the boundary the low goes too"

Some words of comfort for those feeling a bit forlorn because of the weather from none other than Ray's favorite MET.....JB (I know Ray...tongue firmly in cheek(TIC) as he is NOT your favorite) - hold on to your hats....but he see's big things coming...very unlike JB to hype something (I know again TIC) "Okay the western edge of this did not pan out. The accumulation in the 5 boroughs looking at the reports should have been 6-12 inches. The storm I used as closest, Feb 1978, haD 15-20 inches in NYC and south down the Jersey shore, a foot back to PHL. But its time for those so ruthlessly stomped on by this injustice to stop your sobbing Its tough to listen to the woe is me stuff out of NY area snow geese. Any of you get one of those 15 day app from the media hype companies. Just how much snow was on it for NYC and what did temperatures look like 10 days ago for the 5 days ending now. I am sure they did not have the 10-15 inches of snow that has fallen around NYC. I got called by a major snow client of mine Saturday and he said he was watching forecasts and there was very little indication of this, and that was after the Friday night debacle the other way around New York So lets get our heads up and get ready, because this display will rival the 78 winter So in the last 10 days, we had an ice event that stopped everyone , a clipper an storm underforecasted and a storm that in most winters ( around NYC) is a pretty stout event, all this in the so called Jan Thaw period, and we are feeling down?""

JB on his video this morning said the the 15 days thru the first week of February....he believes will be "epic" for weather weenies. He says between the snow, rumours of snow (no doubt he will not fuel any of those!) and severe cold which he is certain is coming will make this a very memorable time for those who love winter weather. Coldest period will be days 10 to 15.

January 20 11:27 AMPer JB GFS West correction to continue Gives 3 reasons "1) Notorious model bias. As it is, it has the big snowstorm in the I-95 corridor now, but I suspect that instead of being on the northwest side of the heaviest snow, the big cities will wind up close to the rain line for awhile, which blends into reason 2) The very warm water off the east coast. This has been helping the ridge in the atlantic back in and lead to some of the southerly spikes we have seen this winter so far. In this case, and increasingly into early spring, it will help fuel bigger storms 3) Feedback look of trough. While I think the upgrade is likely to be better, it seems to me the models handling of the trough is suspect. Besides, its hard to believe given the stale air that is going to be lurking over the southeast ( the colder air will try to drain south behind the clipper, but that will be more inland) that this would cut outside of Hatteras. If it cuts inside, its liable to be tightening quicker You know, there can be big storms back to back. 1966 is an example. We saw an example in 1968,1972,etc. We had 3 in 7 days here in State College in 1978. Its a heck of pattern with a heck of a potential"

JB thinks the POTENTIAL is there for what the European is showing to come to fruition. He thinks there will be spots in the mid-atlantic to New England that might be able to near their seasonal snow averages before the end of the month. He said it has the earmarks of a period of time weather weenies will long remember. Of course he qualifies the statement with he is not yet making a forecast but patted WXBELL team on their backs for seeing the cold returning when so many others were saying winter over etc

not so swell....but he did keep saying he was being stubborn - which as we all know is his bias. Still overall on pattern recognition he has been top notch this year with the exception of the delayed but not denied December cold

Dr. Joe D weighed in that anyone thinking winter is over is in for a rude awakening....also JB in his post today said the WB team is confident their winter forecast is right on track...even with the longer December thaw then they forecasted.....we shall see what we shall see.

From JB today - no changes (call me shocked!) "Because the GFS is likely to vary between runs like last night and runs where it jumps energy out front. The ECMWF is in its drag its heels time frame. So as far as my ideas.. no changes. A model showing what 06z had is no more valid to me than one that has nothing from this stage. In the scheme of the entire global pattern, these are very tiny systems that if they vary a bit , means alot as far as the sensible weather result. I am old pattern recognition forecasting.. I have a strong max going south of the four corners with a big arctic high in the northeast supported by high heights that have to collapse in the Wed-Fri Period. There should be a big storm. With models all over the place, I will stay with what I have for now I guess that was a comment, but the comment is there is no change in what I was commenting on"

From JB on the midday Euro "Just a brief comment to acknowledge what you all see. I wont be changing my ideas, I like this pattern for the threat of major phasing on the east coast, understand why I may be wrong, but also given the history of storms that have occurred with features out of the southwest, pulling my idea 5 days away may just be an invitation to flip flop"

no arguments on JBs point there....no doubt you are one of those who see him as a hypester......I clearly do not but when it comes to JB folks are very passionate on both sides of the aisle so no use arguing why I see him as kind of like Fox News.....fair and balanced - the antithesis of MSNBC if you will. That said as I always say my first source of weather information comes from the best - the PHL Mount Holly Team!

JB today seeing the cold continuing for the most part with possible brief pull backs but overall a cold pattern for the next couple months also saying the models won't see it but watch for the 2nd strong arctic outbreak following this week's impressive one to be attacked by an upper feature that the models will lose but will result in "quite the snowstorm from the plains to the east coast in the 8 to 11 day period.

From NYNJPAweather - Steve D - tweet this AM "I do still think winter delivers and in a big way. We just got a little side tracked"

Latest from the WeatherBell team and specifically a tweet from JB this PM "We think what happened in the mid and latter part of November is on the way next 2 to 3 weeks, but mid-winter style. We can compare come mid January" No doubt we shall compare......right here! Also on the WB website he says after the PM Euro came out today " Amazing how the colder this gets...the more I hear people say nothing is going on - Here is the problem - ONCE THE ARTIC AIR IS IN THE PATTERN, then we shall see what these different short waves do and how the models handle them. I would not even write off the first one early next week, the models have next to nothing with it now....let's see what this looks like on Sunday"

JB admitted to his big bust on the amount of the USA by Christmas morning....good to see no excuses this time!

Many at least dusted off some snow and some of us did indeed shovel snow!

JB picking on one of his favorite targets.....the ole GFS " In the meantime, once again, major development several days out near the east coast, looks like it was not seen by the flagship of the US model fleet. Kind of hard to believe how many times this happens. But at the very least, you can watch for things like this and see if you can pick up the ones the model hits, and the ones it does not. As in most cases, it rarely scores the coup"

JB in a tweet today - not saying I believe him just sharing..... " If ECMWF, UKMET, JMA and Canadian are correct (GFS stands alone as non-event) we will see how warm next week is in the Northeast...while many shovel snow"

JB tweets " idea of eastern blow torch is poppycock thru mid month backed up by non US models EC looks like Euro with snow in 6 to 10 days"

From LC at WeatherAmerica's Saturday Newsletter "You just have that feeling that the upcoming DJF period will be "something special". After all, the coverage of ice and snow across the Northern Hemisphere is well above normal. Repeated connection of tropical forcing from the western and central Pacific Ocean to the polar westerlies has produced one of the coldest Novembers in history. And a weak El Nino is working in concert with warm water pooling along the entire rim of the shoreline of western North America. So even with the recent relaxation of the 500MB longwave pattern there is still that general sense that more atmospheric theatrics are coming. It is just a question of when, and what feature could "trip the trigger", so to speak, before bedlam ensues and populated areas experience more harsh cold and snowfall. Over the past few months I have been calling attention to "typhoon injection syndrome", where a particularly large tropical cyclone in the western Pacific Ocean joins with a linkage between convective groups associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the polar westerlies, culminating in the enhancement of an mAk vortex below the Aleutian Islands. Such a huge, cold gyre would then pump up ridging in the -EPO, +PNA, and -AO positions. The furthest chain-reaction result, of course, would be a plunge of bitter cold temperatures into the lower 48 states to the right of the Continental Divide. As a first order of business, please note that the analog-derived formula for monthly and seasonal forecasting has performed extremely well. Yes, we did see a cold, though volatile November with some states (such as Texas) having their coldest eleventh month on record. And it has become apparent that the milder alignment should control at least the next ten days. But then the typhoon scenario rears its ugly head. There is excellent agreement among the numerical models concerning the formation of a powerful tropical cyclone from the disturbed area now working westward above Papua/New Guinea. This feature is predicted to intensify greatly, then smash into the central and northern Philippines in the 6 - 10 day time frame. Recurving around a growing heat ridge over the western Pacific Ocean, this typhoon would rocket northeastward and become enmeshed within a sub-Aleutian vortex. As was the case with Super Typhoon Nuri, the resultant "superstorm" would build atmospheric height profiles throughout Alaska, western Canada and the Arctic Circle. So at some point during the 11 - 15 day period, we are going to see a ferocious blast of cold slip down off of that snowpack into the Great Plains and points eastward. It is entirely possible that this could be a transient cAk intrusion. You will notice how warm the West and much of the Grain Belt is in the December analog profile. But around mid-month, the southern branch jet stream will activate, shooting a potent storm along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard. So I am confident that at some point between December 15 and 22, interaction between high-latitude ridging and a deep Dixie/East Coast storm will send the brutal reality of winter cold as far south as Mexico and Cuba. And as an extra bonus, maybe chances for plentiful ice and snow for the Hanukkah/Christmas/New Year's period. See what a cheery mood I am with the arrival of the holiday season?"

Steve D at NJPA weather has my area in 6-10" with 2" to 4" toward Philly - seems a bit aggressive but what do I know....

Per JB at WB "Prettier people than I can take over the storm now and the battles rage on the blogs over the amounts in the big cities. This is a fight DC to NYC in the cities, Though once to Boston, its much more snow. I don't have much change. I like 3-6 park, about 3 PHL and 1-3 DC, but once 20 miles northwest, up about 200 feet heckuva storm" "Put it this way, its a heck of a lot more than what was being said ( or written off) last week. So I am not going to play in the backyard brawls over someones picnic deck. Not that I am above it, I have just learned that if I can give you some ideas before hand on some things, then I will leave it to the others to clean up any mess, or lack of it. Now look, you guys fight nice, and remember once you change a forecast, you forfeit what you said before.. right? I do like overall a blend of the NAM and ECMWF" Now to the problem at my hand. First of all a heck of a way to run a warm up next week with a high cresting at 30.80 over the northeast

Latest from JB at WB "So the call continues to be the more westward idea on the precip and the more robust snowstorm that the ECMWF has. That is not to say the GFS can not be right, it certainly can. But it is to say what you are seeing in them plays into the known error bias on storms. As it is, both the GFS and the ECWMF for Thanksgiving Time have a heck of a storm, though the ECMWF is the bigger of the two as far as extent of snow and the spread a bit further west. I think these larger scale ideas are what to really focus on, at least for me, for they do change where a model thinks a track will be. Given the time of the year, and all the warmth around 2 days before the event, its tough to believe some of the further east ideas for me"

Latest from NJ PA Weather (Steve D) For PHL and nearby burbs - Cold rain for most of the storm, ending as light snow on Thanskgiving with minor accumulations on cold surfaces - for far N and W burbs - Rain, mixing with snow at times. Ending as snow with accumulations up to 4" possible