ChescoWx

In East Nantmeal Township 2.34" today up to 3.49" since August 1st

Here in NW Chester County in East Nantmeal we ended up with a whopping 4.97" of rain this week. Looks like August may continue the wet trend!

This morning's AM low of 57 in NW Chester County is the coolest July 19th reading in the last 34 years - we hit 55 on this date in 1984. Yesterday based on local climo data is the warmest day of the year with an average temp of 75.9 - today begins the trek back toward winter....

1.78" of rain so far with these storms here in East Nantmeal in NW Chester County PA and still raining

1.14" of much needed rain here in NW Chesco - had only had 0.28" so far this month. Still a bit of light rain falling temp at 68.5

What a difference in the higher spots of SE PA - only 4 such days so far this summer. Elevation FTW!!

Nice relative weather for this date with highs ranging from 77.1 at the shore in Sea Isle City NJ to the low 81.2 in NW Chester County...no doubt a good bit higher in the heat island at PHL etc. On a non-weather note great to see the loads of Phillies phans at the game this evening at Baltimore...but real sad to hear some of those fans disrespecting the 1st place Phils with a stupid Eagles chant at the game....for some reason they must think it makes the Phillies feel good - I just don't get it even a little bit

Already up to 92.6 here in NW Chesco (high heat index 104.9) this is our 2nd 90+ reading of the year - this is already the 13th hottest day in the last 15 years at my location. Overall it is the 66th such reading since 2004. Breaks the Chester County daily record which was only 89 set back in 2002. The all-time Chester County daily record for today is the 102.5 set way back in 1901 - that record should be safe!

high so far here today has been 88.6 back down to 87.6 still a few hours of heating to go...but may need to wait until tomorrow to see our 2nd 90 degree reading of the year

Hi today in Chester County was 68.7 for the month of June through today we are averaging 1 degree below normal. If the month ended today this would mark our 6th below normal month in the last 8 months in the County. Certainly a heat wave incoming for lower spots and Philly. Here in NW Chesco WXSIM does show actually forecast 2 days over the next 9 days 90+ those being on Monday at 90 and Tuesday at 91...but 87 or higher every day from Sunday through next Friday.

What a difference at the shore points steady sea breeze all day kept temps to a high of only 77.0 here at the Beach in SIC - while back in East Nantmeal we did reach 88.0 our 2nd warmest day of the year....we did have one 90+ day in May....would not surprise me in the least if that was our one and only 90+ day of the year - matching last summer.

1.19" of rain so far today in East Nantmeal Twp and continues to rain moderate to heavy at times temp 56.1

Hey guys, Attached for those interested is my latest article for the local East Nantmeal Paper with weather highlights for NW Chester County PA over the last 3 months Hello again from Paul at The Northwest Chester County PA Weather Station (www.chescowx.com) here in beautiful East Nantmeal Township. Be sure to follow me on twitter at Twitter as I am tweeting multiple daily climate reports, forecast updates and weather photos for our fair Township. When I wrote my last article, we were just finishing the 1st 10 days of March and in the midst of what would be the snowiest March in Chester County history. We had just had an 11.5” snowstorm on the 6th and 7th and this was followed up with the 4th largest snowstorm in County history going back to 1894 with 13.5” of snow falling on the 21st and 22nd of March for the 1st day of spring. The largest March snowstorm on record was the 19” of snow that fell on March 20, 1958. going all the way back to 1894! Overall for the month we finished up with 30.6” of snow, this crushed the old March Chester County snowfall record of 27.1” set way back in 1914. Overall March finished at 2.4 degrees below our normal temperature of 40.4 degrees. Our total precipitation including melted snow ended up at 5.15” which was 0.61” above normal. April continued the cold stretch with our 5th of the last 6 months dating back to November 2017 having below normal temperatures, this included our last snow event of the year when 2.5” of snow fell on April 2nd. This brought our seasonal 2017-18 snow total up to 58.5” of snow which is over 22” above our normal seasons snowfall here in East Nantmeal of 36.4.” Our total snowfall this year represents the 12th snowiest winter in Chester County PA history back to 1894. My fearless winter forecast back in the fall predicted 50” of snow so with our record snowy March we ended up with even more than I had predicted. Of interest 4 of the top 12 snowiest winters have occurred in Chester County in just the last 15 years. Our last freezing temperature was recorded on April 21st this was the 98th below freezing reading during the winter season. We average 113 such days in a normal winter. May saw a major pattern change from our cold pattern noted during most of the winter with the notable exception of February (our 2nd warmest February on record). During May we even experienced our first 90 degree reading of the year on the 3rd when we hit 90.3 degrees. The month was warm and also wet with the month finishing at 65.3 degrees or 4.6 degrees above normal and also with the 6.31” of rain almost 2” above normal. This wet pattern has continued into early June with rain falling on the 1st five days of the month. YTD rainfall through June 7th stands at 26.99” which is 5.59” above normal – this is great news for our Township farmers. Going forward I expect most of June to remain relatively cool and wet but look for much drier and warmer weather as we move into mid and late summer. Weather always does have a way of balancing out. While it will clearly get warm during the next few months be sure to keep in mind that despite what you will see reported on local news outlets of upwards of 25 plus days that exceed the 90-degree mark at the Philadelphia airport…do not expect such readings here in the relatively high elevations of East Nantmeal Township. We average only about 5 such days here, in fact in the last 15 years we have had 3 years (2004, 2014 and 2015) with not one day that hit the 90 mark and only 1 such day last year here in NW Chester County. I hope all of you have a great summer! If you have any questions, please visit my website, follow me on twitter and send me an email. Until next time –All the best! Paul “Some are weather-wise, some are otherwise” Ben Franklin

Heavy rain most of the evening up to 1.35" this evening and 1.45" for the day. YTD rain now at 25.95" here in Northwest Chester County PA which is 5.04" above normal

From JB at WB "The folly of putting the cart before the horse with individual storms is standing out most pronounced on the European. I have no changes in my ideas on this being a big snow and ice event from the central plains into the northeast and the idea a center tries to get up in the Ohio valley with a secondary that cuts all the warming. The European has gone from as warm is it could be 4 days ago to a suppressed look that given what I see makes little sense with itself as this kind of trough is likely to capture the southern storm. One thing it is not. is a warm system in the midwest and northeast. It was never that to me, even if a center does cut up because there was going to be so much cold air in the way, it would ice and snow in many places. Of course now the worry is too far to the south, but I am confident on my answer in between. But I use storms in the longer term to make points about what I think is going on. The GFS was abysmal on the clipper Tuesday. After all these years, the same problem it was jumping on the front running short so much it lowered pressures too far north. The heaviest snow at 20 to 1 ratios will be near and north of the 528 thk. Plot your thickness and in the midwest and northeast, if your average thk is 525 start to finish of a 6 hour period of snow, ( start snowing at 522 and rise to 528) you should be in the sweet spot for the 20 to 1. And the system Monday morning will be a pain from DC to ACY, most likely coating to 2s. But again that clipper is coming down with a nice warm front that will force some pretty impressive overrunning But all this is a sign that the ideas have merit. I tweeted out this am that I dont believe it will rain again here in central PA till march 14. I tried to pull that back in 2009 at IAD , saying in late Jan I dont think they would get any rain in Feb, it would be all snow or frozen. IAD did have .25 inches of rain but the rest was all snow. Now that is not to say that a nasty blizzard will hit New England. It is saying, given this is an ensemble, that some of the key markers for an extreme are being hinted at by the model. But the real point is the pattern for the next couple of week has turned the way we thought it would, and even out at day 16, I just dont think that looks bad for what we have been saying going forward. Perhaps love is blind, and I still love what I am seeing. But whatever you do if you are a snow lover in the midwest and now the northeast.. dont put the cart before the horse. For if its backyard snow you are interested in, many of you will not have to wait till what is now day 8"

Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has trended significantly colder now has rain this PM transitioning to sleet by 630pm. A mix of sleet and some snow heavy at times overnight with 1.4" of sleet/snow accumulating before tapering off by 10am tomorrow morning. Temps will fall slowly through the day but will remain above freezing till near 4am Tuesday morning.

It does forecast wind speed but it knows where I am between hills north and south to not expect much from a wind perspective...only shows gusts to 30mph...

Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has just drizzle and light rain through rush hour tomorrow with only .03" steadier rains move in around noon tomorrow and goes till near noon on Tuesday. Total rain 1.52" with temps remaining in the 30's on Tuesday. Chance of a little wintry precip (flurries) by Friday night....with temps not too far above freezing next weekend

For your reading enjoyment From JB at WB this AM "The tornadoes and severe weather in Mississippi are a sign that a front running impulse is coming out. That impulse is going to carve the path for this low to move along. The Euro wants it over Chesapeake bay for instance, and then the primary goes toward it. I think its likely to be off the Delmarva by tomorrow night, and that is where the big low winds up on Monday. Now consider this. Its so warm it cant get any warmer. What do I mean by that? Well all the warm air for the system is already on the playing field. Because winds are mainly west in the southern sector of the storm, there is no transport of warmer air into the center as it moves east. Instead the cooler air cmes flying in underneath and as the center moves further northeast, it starts drawing cooling are into it from the northeast . The front running system causing those tornadoes is HUGE in this for this should get off the mid atlantic coast tomorrow and when it does, establish the path for the primary center, after it moves up into WVA, to move along. The warm air that is around now has gone into developing the storm as heights fall over it, but there is no warm inflow. The air mass to the northeast is low level cold air, Its way the new HIRES NAM is cooling this so dramatically, its seeing all this and too little back in central Pa simply because of the ideas I have analogged this too ( 3 storms that were warm that turned into big interior snows as centers drew cold air in, and precip processes cooled the air, late March 1984, Dec 1992, late March 1984). The warm advection leads to strong upward motion. Saturated air that may be 38 degrees at NYC is lifted and that can cool quite a bit, Meanwhile he sounding turns Isothermal and a bunch of people start turning over to snow west of the track to the upper low. as soon as the warm advection cuts off, which should be Monday as all the cooling gets around it, a bunch of people start turning over to snow That is the key. So what I do is figure out all the scenarios I see and weight them. Lets look here at State College. If I blend my 3 analogs it comes out to a foot. But suppose I look at modeling, take the average of the Canadian UKMET US models, ensembles and operational. I may have 10 samples I am looking at Now we got 15 with March 84 and Dec 1992 and 9 with the early 93 March storm. That is 39 for a total . the contribution from 7 models is only 7 So lets say there are 7 objective inputs adding up to 7 inches ( 1 each) and then my 3 analogs which tack on another 39 ( 15,15,9) . This gives me 10 tools totaling 46, which is an average of 4.6, hence the forecast of 3-6 put out a couple of days ago. NYC I said 1-3. This is not to get into a fight over either place Its to demonstrate a forecast method where you don't simply go into depression/elation cycles over model. The time to flip out is Tuesday morning if there is nothing on the ground , not over models. But if you can come up with storm typing, then as the storm gets closer, you can eliminate the options. Forecasting is not putting out 10 different options before an event. If you change your forecast 9 times, then out of 10 samples you were wrong on 90% of them. And what's more you cant go back and claim a forecast was right. You can say, that idea was better, but I pulled it off the table. I really think the answer to the forecast questions is not the models, but identifying EVERYTHING you can and then weighting it. The models are simply doing that. Their variance shows that obviously they disagree. So what is needed for the right answer. YOU! I don't care if you have a degree or not, if you love the weather and you love getting out there then you should put out your ideas. This is another libertarian rant against those that think its "irresponsible" for untrained guys to be posting forecasts. That is arrogant. I am suggesting a method that I use that you might want to try, sharing what I do. I am also suggesting that there is a philosophy that can make it easier not to swing all over the place when models do or do not go your way"

Sheesh! Let's get this back where it belongs.....on weather JB from WB with his thoughts on the pattern change coming.... "But that is how these storms can be , the first one mainly north of US 6 and east of te Hudson river Wednesday but that one in the 7/8 period, the one I think is going out under the block , that is the next one . Now the big thing is that may be so strong is it pulls the other one in. In any case back over a week ago when we were sounding alarms about how warm this thaw may or may not be, and of course I may just be being stubborn, I mentioned how it could end with some wild storm changing to snow in the northeast. Not as likely in the midwest, ( outside of flurries) as the colder air has to come in from the northeast first But as soon as that positive gets to and west of Hudson bay, look out. Game on"

Agreed....this is not a good comment on a weather site.....the majority of the counties (incredibly 84% of all counties in our country voted for Trump - that is a mandate!) in the United States voted for the "moron" you mentioned who will be our President later this week. You can personally dislike the man...but please respect the office!

All I can say is we have by far the best NWFO in the country! I do not say that lightly...the reputation of Mt. Holly is top notch!! I love to hear other opinions like JB / DT / WB / LC etc. - however when push comes to shove my only go to spot for the best forecast is unquestionably my NWS point and click!! Keep up the great work NWSFO Mount Holly!!

JB goin "boom" with his late Jan and Feb thoughts this evening.... "So what is the big deal with it getting warm for mid month? The fact is this reminds me alot of the 67-68 thaws, where we were in 1993 and 2013 and the thaws of of 14-15. At the end of those winters, no one was talking about the thaw, but about how long and strong winter was. Remember Endless summer. Perhaps when we get to April we may think the same thing about this winter.Yes the thaw is coming but I think it gets blown up A boom boom boom boom"

Thanks Haz! could not have said it better "nearly every scientist" remains the key phrase - not a fact. When it is universally accepted like world is round....by all scientists - I will be a believer

ugh....not for this site but as a proud card carrying climate denier - I hate any comments around something that is not a fact.....world is round = fact - global warming/climate change or whatever it is called today....not so much. If it was a fact all scientist would believe...but of course they all do not so - much more time needed. By then we will all be long gone from this world!