snowfan

None of the local nws offices are enthused about this. PIT has Davis getting 1.5” and Charleston has Snowshoe receiving about the same. So snow looks likely, but those higher end amounts seem not so likely. From Charleston… Lowering temperatures behind today`s front should support snow or a rain/snow mix to the north and along the higher terrain. Mainly rain is expected to the south, though some flakes could briefly mix in before precipitation ends. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are possible for portions of southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia this morning, and in the higher elevations of the northeast mountains by the end of the day. Outside of these areas, any accumulation should be minimal.

Out ahead of the system, could see some decent gusts on Wednesday.

Op gfs targeting your back yard. Though, I think we know how this will go….cold air bleed will lag vs what’s progged and precip will be east of the area by the time it’s cold enough.

Dude - we will never see eye to eye on the thing that seems to be most important to you…..I don’t think you’re always right.

@Jii wonder if you thinking of 18-19 when you mentioned 20-21 as a good winter. At least for Dulles, 18-19 had more than twice as much snow as 20-21.

And there’s a separate thread for that as @WxUSAF has repeatedly reminded folks.

How many times are you going to tell us about your 4” storm case study? You have turned into a broken record.

It appears day 12 of the worst operational model was off by about a day or so on the warmth. Upper 40s to low 50s Sunday and then 60s to 70 to close out the month next week.

26 with heavy frost. Today should take of the last of Saturdays snow imby.

I won’t complain about an early start to bass fishing season.

The LR thread is now the research, past season retrospectives, and how many ways we get fucked next season thread.

This thread is destined for failure. The folks that want to discuss climate change can’t help but satisfy that itch in the LR thread. lol.

Looks red. Might be AN.

My neighborhood looks like it’s just a few sunny/warm days from mass daffodil blooms occurring.

Warm/Wet?

Just about 2 hrs from Leesburg, 119” on the season, and a depth of 1” or more for 59 of the last 85 days. They got more snow in November than most of us have for the season. lol.

Here’s a good map depicting avg NNE snowfall. The valley lows are well shown here for VT, similar to how there’s a significant drop off in snowfall in NH south of the notches.

GFS op looks active and cold again in early March after a break in the cold late month. I doubt we’re done tracking.

First, your comment yesterday was “cold smoke blizzards” which isn’t something that should be tossed around nonchalantly for the mid Atlantic. Those are anomalies in our long term historical records. That is fact. second, I’m not arguing that it is now warmer. Never have. What I take exception with are the claims by you and others that this area now suddenly will no longer experience snowy periods and/or snowy winters in general. It is also fact to state that neither you or I know what our long term winter weather will look like. Look at the most recent 15 years at BWI. Rough winters. Some true ratters, to be honest. But we also managed the winter of 09-10, which is now the golden standard of winters for the metro areas. We also had the 3 year stretch of 13/14 - 15/16, which is the best 3 year stretch at BWI in the last 60 years. Both of those things….a historical winter and a historical string of 3 winters all came during an overall down period for snow in the metro areas. Will our long term averages continue to incrementally decline? It appears so. Our most recent 30 yr avg at BWI is 19”. That’s down from the prior 30 year period avg of 20.2”. But it is way too soon to know what our yr over yr winters are going to look like. In this area, most of us are a few moderate to strong storms from being near avg. it doesn’t take much.

All it takes is 1 storm. January 96 and January 00 were both in Nina’s. Outliers, yes, but it can happen.

lol. Even on a nice wintry morning you are still exhausting to deal with. PS. Thanks for not rebutting anything in my post

You live in Maryland and nowhere close to the Allegheny front at that. You’ve never received cold smoke blizzards left and right. You’ve observed isolated cold smoke blizzards throughout a 100+ year reporting period. And right now, none of us knows what the next 100 years will look like. Geesh….

As we quickly move forward into late Thursday, Thursday night and even into Friday, there remains a timing and track discrepancy between the models with a more vigorous low pressure system. The GFS still wants to bring a low pressure system across our region and spread rain showers throughout. The Euro wants to delay the low pressure system until more of Friday and shunt it farther to the south near the Virginia and North Carolina border. The GFS would translate to mainly rain, while the Euro opens up the option of some wintry weather. For now, the flavor is rain and timing more so on Thursday. There is a moderate confidence that higher elevations in the Appalachians and Blue Ridge and perhaps along the Mason-Dixon border could encounter some snow or a wintry mix. Temperatures on Friday look to be cooler for the most part.

I’m assuming this is sarcasm because there is nothing to suggest this cannot happen. Kind of a silly comment to make.