Stormpc

Everything looks to be staying the course to a flip back to more favorable conditions after the first week of next month. Not seeing terrible cold, but sufficient enough in the source region over Eastern Canada and Greenland to get us what we need. Especially Richmond and North. We do a lot better when we get those Strong high pressure systems pressing that fresh cold air down on NE winds without having it modify while traveling through thousands of miles of Midwestern Plains and the Continental Divide across the appalachians. Back door fronts and cold air damming looks to be a possibility going forward. Something to watch. Without getting crazy technical.

My fear every year living down here is there's never a cold enough stretch to totally kill the bugs. These last 6 days should do the trick. Anything else after this for me down on the coast is gravy. As you see my bar is very very low. Not many wish for a cold enough winter period to kill bugs. Any snow is a bonus. Looks like mid-February through mid-march will be active. March these days is much better than December and we can now start talking about severe season soon. I know. Depressing to many. Nothing scientific in my post. Obviously we are in the doldrums of midwinter with not much going on for at least 10 days.

Looks like models are trying to Tamp down the 14-day warm up. Maybe a back door front later this weekend followed by normal temperatures. Doesn't look as toasty as it did two days ago that's for sure. All very good steps going forward. Cold trying to build back into Eastern Canada.

Youre rigjt. Diggs was running open. Had him easily for the first down over the middle, crossing. Allen got greedy. His bugaboo. That's why Buffalo with Allen won't win with McDermott. I bet McDermott is gone.

Except it doesn't work that way. You know it. Do that twice and now you're talking. Second time around usually a big difference. We'll see. Baltimore is my pick for sure but don't see them running away with it at all. Let's see what that spread is later. I bet it's -2.5

Haines point was several feet underwater and all the tributaries were so swollen it was quite something to see. Old Town was under water for several high tide cycles. I lived near Old Town. Did quite a lot of damage.

You can bet on '70s next weekend no doubt. Until then we will enjoy winter until Tuesday. Some Echoes breaking out across North Central North Carolina/So Va. Not sure if that's in response to the H5 pass or interaction with the strengthening low and sunshine instability. I have low 50s at the house. That ain't going to make snow!!!

Per radar, that little appendage down the peninsula looks like it's starting to develop. The models have had that arm trailing the exiting storm for several runs now. I suspect there will be some convective snow showers with grauple moving from Northwest to Southeast across the area this afternoon. Won't get down to me but maybe Newport News can get in on some of the goods.

@RIC AirportThe RGEM has that feature as well for Hampton Roads. The inverted V look. Nothing crazy exciting but something to watch. Be interesting to see where that dry slot sets up...in Central Virginia or up further in the Fredericksburg area? Then the pivot thru the DMV and whatever scraps get caught in the flow of the departed low. There could be some instability to give those snow showers a boost with sunshine and tanking upper levels. That may be fun before the Frozen weekend begins. Anyway good stuff. Lots happening.

You see that little sliver in Northeast Virginia beach? Get your butt over there. Maybe if you're lucky you can catch some snowflakes on your tongue in the afternoon as she departs!!

This thing looks more like a Clipper than anything else now. Rounding the base further south, which is nice but needs to slow down to get us Coastal folks some action. Good luck up north....another one missed for us down south and east. Still be watching.

Agree but not ready to toss in the towel yet. It's moving too fast to phase that's for sure for now but again something to watch. I do think we will all see some flakes out of this one. I'll take scraps at this point. I moved down here knowing there was little chance, so I don't get too hung up on things. NAM was pretty good inside 48 with this one. They all had the general idea, Richmond and North. Amounts were spot on too. 2-6 RIC to BWI.

Creeping now. That's great! Hopefully you guys pull out another inch or two before it's over. Not bad! Weekend thing isn't done yet.

Yes that band is booking north. It's gone within the next hour, at least city and SE. Remember to take the model that has the most snow divided by half then divide it by 1/3 and that's the high end of the total. So in this case a trace to 2 in would be the max in the Richmond area. That looks like it's going to work out.

Snow on the I-64 cameras well South into Newport News almost to the shipyards. Meanwhile I sit at 44° with partly sunny skies South of the Border on the coast. Not this time for me. Edit: Friday's system making an abrupt comeback on 12z GFS. That's how Newport News and South can score. Still unlikely but at least there's a chance.

That band and orientation looks like the GFS from four or five runs ago. Short-term models didn't have that as significant. Overrunning is a tough thing to predict. Once that Coastal gets going it may push the best forcing further north, quicker than we want.

Agree. It's slipping away to the north. Life on the southern fringe of this one was always worrisome. Never know. Can get a quick inch or two this evening before things push up north and out. Of course I'd favor areas Ashland and north. South of Richmond and toward the airport not so good. That initial band we hoped for on the GFS for all those days ended up again 75 to 100 miles north. Areas west of DC got their inch from that. At least something's going on. And Thursday Friday looks sort of interesting. Then it gets really cold. So not all is bad

Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong.

GFS loves RIC...SW to NE straight thru the metro. Sharp southern cutoff

That warmth is transient; t's still going to be cold. It'll feel like winter at least. Some Fringe chances as well but you know it doesn't really snow down this way so whatever we get is a bonus. Even 24 or 36 hours of tracking the potential is good enough. At least for me obviously can't speak for you but keep an eye out for surprises. End of the week situation has some wraparound potential for us on the coast. Way out there but you never know. Love overrunning snow. If that band can start around or south of the naval station in Norfolk and west toward Danville, it can dump on Richmond for many hours (GFS) before lifting North and out of the area. That would be a surprise three or four inches. Maybe not so surprising but at this rate it would be a shocker.

Oh it's over. He thought he had his Jets Jersey on. This is more like it.

EURO actually improved in that it's liking the idea of the coastal developing. Closer this time to the GFS but not there yet. Not terrible. Places that get into that first overrunning band may be fortunate enough to have snow flying for almost 24 hours if the coastal gets going quick enough like shown on the gfs. Not that it will amount to much but certainly better than blue skies and wind. I'm still 62 degrees at the house right now!!

12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure.

The 6z GFS is what CAN happen with that third wave just off the coast. Cold air in place with moisture thrown over top of the Arctic boundary. That's our only winning scenario in Hampton roads. That's also an outlier. Keep watching...we'll see.

Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score.