Stormpc

@RIC Airport I HOPE you didn't spend your time and energy running up to Arlington to experience that debacle overnight. What a skunk-job. Even up to the start of the event the most meager modeling was still predicting something. Looked at the radar around 10 last night and it looked like a cold front rather than a northern stream wave. Sure areas in Pennsylvania and New Jersey JACKED, but it was a complete bust in the NOVA area. Poor modeling. BUT, all hints were there leading up to it. It began slipping away 36 hours earlier when it started chopping 40 miles off the southern edge of accumulating snow with each 6-hour run. Oh well! Let's find something else to fantasize about before we turn to severe weather hunting.

Did you see the EURO for the 22nd/23rd time frame?? Our LAST SHOT. Also you are right about being unlucky. Look at Northern Virginia for instance. After tonight they will be at climate average or above for this time of year if things go as forecasted. And there's another 4 weeks or so to go.... how many places are the East Coast can claim that? Probably none. So in one sense they have gotten incredibly lucky while all others are just suffering the fate of this year's winter.

Yes it's not over just looking very bleak. The lack of cold air is what does it for me. Canada warms up nicely into March, so that's what I usually look at. Maybe a fluke later. 1993 was 2nd week of March but that winter was loaded from the start. I lived north of Syracuse for that one and we got about 50 inches with some lake snows on the back end. That's what makes this hobby so much fun. Don't need a 3-day historic event. It only takes one really epic 12-hour event to make lasting memories.

This is probably the last real chance for Richmond and vicinity. Such a quick hitter. Not much chance of a fluke. No room for error. Right now I doubt any accumulating snow gets south of Kings Dominion. Unless things start moving south on the 0Z runs beginning with the NAMS next hour. Looks like a Stafford to Baltimore jack, with ratio snows piling up West and North. Culpeper and Rappahannock County's might be the place to be for this one. And the usual Northern Montgomery into Howard County areas in MD. At least there's something to watch. It's so much easier living down here pretty much out of the game all the time. I never stress but I also never get excited so it goes both ways.

HELLO....RICHMOND!! This is your event. Overnight. Cold enough at the surface. Decent track. On the edge but always room to go further south as we've seen recently. Of course can go the other way but liking the trends for Central virginia. Bring it home.

Glimmer is accurate. Looks like it's OVER to me. Especially SE of RIC.

It's like fantasizing what you would do if you won the Powerball jackpot of 500 million dollars. Exciting, then you realize it's never going to happen. But what if it does?

Not what I'm thinking. Let's get it down towards Charleston...

Going to be a busy week as we can see the transition now on the long range models becoming more consistent and stronger with each run. Might not get there by the 15th but certainly looks exciting after with possible Southern stream tracks which is probably good for most of us in this thread. Here is to a good week ahead with eyes on the long range. Love that Greenland block of all indices. OT...You see what happened in Nova Scotia?

Yes you guys were killing it with the wrap around while places just east of DC and Baltimore could never get back in to the snow band. They got the initial thump then it hung out just to the west and snaked down through Richmond and Southern VA. I was lucky enough to be West enough to get back into that 2nd act of the storm which was awesome. Wind blown powder. Great day that was.

That's another very tight gradient. I'm sure I was grieving that storm, missing it to my south. I still think we're going to have another good shot or two. Especially up where you are. Things are looking pretty good I must say. Possible suppressed pattern. Not bad for me. Not great for further north. Pretty rough to go from 7-8 inches in Williamsburg and barely an inch around richmond. That's tight.

It's a very odd area down here. Southern Hampton Roads Northeast North carolina. I had between 8 and 9 inches of snow from that January event in 2022. Actually Shoveled the driveway. Stuck to the road and pavement very well. So it does snow here. And it can happen. I don't remember the last time DCA had 8 inches of snow during one event. Probably not since I moved out of that area in 2019. Very narrow stripe though. A good 6 inches was still prevalent down to Grandy but once south of Grandy (like a mile) there was basically nothing. Up to Moyock and into Chesapeake a few inches less as well. Most of the times during marginal events my neighborhood gets nothing while just a quarter mile inland can have a few inches. I got lucky or unlucky depending on how you look at it. A few times I've had nothing at my house while the front of the neighborhood, which is just a few hundred yards away, has had a dusting. I need the winds coming off the land. Any part of the Sound and I'm toast.

Just my quick two cents. It looks like everything is going according to plan. We knew it would get more favorable after February 10. Doesn't look like we'll sneak in any fluke before that or even a few days after. I still think this time next week we'll be tracking something around Valentine's Day or after. Progressively colder in Eastern Canada. Going to be a blocky situation. Can't really look at any of the operational runs right now. Nothing looks great on those and shouldn't. Patience. We are not running out of time. Yet. I think I'll start paying good attention after Sunday otherwise quick peeks at some of the ensembles and long range indicators and that's it. Enjoy the weekend SEVA/RVA friends.

Damn it. We were trying to hide from everyone. We come down here to escape.

Re 2/5-2/6...If it gets this for North it's going to be rain. As it looks right now. Still looking like pattern change around mid-month but again that's over two weeks away still. We'll take what we can get between now and then. At least something to look at especially for you folks in the Richmond area and north. If anything I'm getting either some rain or a lot of wind driven rain with this. Not much difference down here. A few cold air damming situations pop up on those ensembles. But Not many. From now till mid month looks to be a gradual step down with a little roller coaster in temperatures until that block gets established north of the maritimes. At least that's what it looks like right now. @RIC Airport can delve deeper into the euro and ensembles later.

Jackson not ready for the big time yet I guess. Terrible game. Regular season poser.

Flowers. Brutal. Twice.

Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO.

Exactly. That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck.

EURO. Wild solution. Never going to happen that way but it's nice to see. We've got something to look at. Signal is increasing for some kind of East Coast storm. Maybe a big one. Models all over the place. Go back even a few days and look how this current weekend weather situation was modeled. Not great. I need to mow the front yard and get rid of the dandelions if there is any chance of snow. A yellow flower poking through isn't a good look.

Today was one hell of a heater. Nearly 80 everywhere! Turned the ac on, up and downstairs. Heat always overperforms. Glad to get this week behind us. Great looking weeklies could be wrong, but if not, we should start seeing some threats in the long range showing up in the next few days. Need to get that cold established up in Eastern Canada to get back in the game. Transition week ahead. Then back to business. I think! Beyond that there's really nothing to talk about given long-range model uncertainty and Incredibly fluctuating op runs. Here's to a great weekend and possibly a thunderstorm or 2!!

I'm actually impressed how humid it is. Feels like Midsummer outside. I saw bugs today too. That didn't take long.

There's going to be some wild rides and differences every 6 hours. Yes consistency is lacking. I still like that second week of February benchmark where things should flip. Should start showing up real soon though consistently. We hope. Haven't looked at the euro but it's running now so I'll see it later.

Today's 6z GFS is one hell of a WEENIE run for us in the lower Mid Atlantic. Nice to see. Won't shake out that way but better than what we have been seeing all winter. Back to tracking!!!

3 mild days thru Friday then back to near normal to slightly above. Definitely not the torch advertised a few days ago. We'll see how mid or late next week shakes out but not seeing that push of widespread 60s/70s like we saw progged. More of a gradual step back down then we are back in business. Love the Eastern Canada cold/High pressing down. Maybe a southern storm track or overrunning set up late in the period. NOT terrible.