I looked at nam and gfs bufkit a lot. If we get 1-3 it’s because the first part is light and the second part doesn’t do anything until it’s cold enough.
Otherwise the soundings I saw were decent.
That blocking needs to build westerly to both suppress that track a bit, but also help slide some cold underneath it into SE Canada. So that is what to look for. What you don't want is the PV where it is and have the blocking just start to come in.
That can happen as well. Although this time, it's slightly cooler aloft here I think. But yeah south side of town can definitely have more. I saw that in March 2018 in that second event that brought the heavy wet snow.