CoastalWx

1500’ in a bears den?

Inland as in Detroit?

I dunno, this pattern looked good two weeks out and nuances just made us have a terrible month. I don’t think anyone expected that, especially inland.

Looks like the cutter on the euro is ingesting a TS off the southeast coast later this week lol.

Tip’s waiting to post some exotic statements about warm tushies.

Oncor conference calls ftl.

There is no SE ridge in place prior. It’s forced because of the s/w out west. This makes no sense.

The opposite of what you want to see on the gfs.

It’s not a crazy adjustment near peak climo though. Obvious interior can work with it in a quicker sense, but I don’t think it will take weeks to reset. Hell it only takes a few days to move in. But to reset and then wait for chances is entirely different.

There may be some more HP trying to hold in NNE as we get closer, but as it stands now….the Midwest s/w just overwhelms it. It’s a beast of a low intensifying to our west. You’d want to see the s/w weaken, have it come in further east from the Rockies compared to where it’s modeled now, or keep better confluence to our north.

Yeah exactly. You get a sense of the overall look. An EPO ridge in 1955 and an EPO ridge in 2022 mean the same. Big cold into the CONUS. Maybe adjust by 1F as you said.

Analogs give you a sense of the 500mb look. So in that sense they work.

It’s not really a permanent feature.

Yeah it works….I meant just the overall look. Should the EPS be right, it eventually shakes things up and cools the east.

Waters a few degrees cooler won’t help areas south of the coastal front like in this storm. Nor does AN SSTs determine nuances like ridges folding over AK and causing a s/w trough to dip into the Gulf Of Alaska from the east. Maybe borderline areas near 32 in this storm it may matter, but that’s not the problem in this pattern.

Yeah you can see the low retrograde a bit into early January. That would be a change to what we have now. More of a +PNA. We would need Canada to cool a bit first.

Yeah some just don’t catch that. I’ve seen that too. I was more arguing that the 6hr method imo is the more truthful way to gauge snowfalls.

Next week is funny. That s/w trough loops down into the CONUS and then loops back up. I think I made a post about that a week ago when one of the op runs showed a cutter. It just comes right down and then right back up lol.

The 6 hr method around here doesn’t make a huge difference. A lot of the storms involve wind and helps to compact. I haven’t noticed a huge difference doing both methods. I could see differences appear in the softly fallen fluff though. Like when Jspin measures a dendrite and calls it 0.4” But, I also think it makes for more true measuring because when it’s snowing an inch an hour all day and you have 6” to snow for it, that’s not really truthful either. That’s when the 6hr method comes in handy and more truthful imo.

I hope, because that’s inches of rain. Sucks.

Choo choo!

Close them tight. Another terrible December.

Maybe VT escapes with least impacts? Maine is soaked with rain as it stands now.

It looks awful up north.

How much