CoastalWx

Euro used to do well with these fronts.

That's true, a good one for sure.

Yeah looks likely. I'm just hoping those temps stabilize near 32 Friday and it's not catpaws at 35.

Part of me wants to side with the GEFS, but the EPS is stubborn. I guess I could see another relaxation after whatever comes during the 12-15th or so, and then signs of another sort of reload to end the month.

Antifa gonna give you wedgies?

The bomb cyclone, and the Ginxy Gravity wave storm of 1994 anniversary today. That storm in '94 was pretty crazy. I had about 6-8" IIRC, but it flipped to a mix. But those winds from the g-wave came out of nowhere. Like 20-30...then to 60 all of the sudden. Lasted a few min then gone.

Enjoy wearing shorts today. Jelly.

Hopefully we can get something over the next 2 weeks.

Even Steve isn't sitting there smiling. Just hips, lips, and drips.

I'd rather eat a block of Fentanyl.

I know. The EPS can improve anytime now. Lol.

Still have that window from the 12-14 of something. I may favor more towards the 14th, but both on the table.

That 12-14 period still looks ripe for something. Can’t hate that look.

A Ray approved blizzard for Cape Hatteras.

Couple inches inland on the GFS for the 9th.

Velocity Potential Anomalies. This is a measure of the divergent flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Your areas of blue shading are indicative of divergent flow at that level. This is where you may find your MJO convection because as air diverges or is evacuated aloft, you'll tend to have convergence of air near the surface. This convergence at the surface and divergence aloft helps to promote the convection.

Our satellites these days provide data that substitute for RAOBs. This isn't low res stuff either. You also have aircraft reports etc to help. Besides, we aren't trying to decipher things like timing a s/w to induce cyclogenesis off the east coast. We are looking at a broad area to analyze things like outgoing long wave radiation, 850mb winds etc. We then use guidance to see how this will propagate. They'll be some errors for sure, but you aren't going to see gross errors in the MJO 1-2 weeks out. FWIW those RMM plots are noisy and typically not the most accurate.

This isn't 1960. Our remote sensing capabilities are pretty darn good for analyzing components of the MJO. That along with tribal accounts of migratory birds get us to a good point.

It is close, no argument here.

Look at Korn's "Falling away from me" video. That Dad might be me.

I'm worried for them.

This is the EPS. Because the previous graphic I posted is 5S-10N latitude, it makes it look like the MJO is dead. In reality it's further south. I think you want the actual forcing to be a bit further north...but regardless..I don't think this is a PAC firehose look. So yeah, maybe we see less troughing near Bering Sea-GOAK area. I don't really have confidence either way lol.

Not sure what drives the PAC with this look.

The EPS actually kills everything across the Pacific for awhile and has some lower VP anomalies in the Atlantic. I'm not sure what that really means honestly. At least to me, other things will drive the Pacific, and I don't see how any sort of PAC jet lasts that long without some tropical assistance..but we'll see.

All I know is that it is horrifying outside currently. 40s and rain is about as bad as it gets....maybe Ray's 32.00001F rain is worse..but this is Kurt Cobain weather.