CoastalWx

I’d say overall it’s unfavorable, but the caveat is a well timed event could work like the 6z gfs. But overall I’m keeping things in check with expectations until Christmas or so.

I agree with Kev we may have to rewrite Christmas songs. We brought these dews to you ba rum ba bum bum…….. I’ve got no snow for you ba rum ba bum bum……

Yeah saw that Will. Back to KaKa. LOL. Hopefully it shakes out a little better than that look. But I’m not really worrying at the moment.

Yeah we need to sort of flush out the crap and cool it off a bit. That should happen late month. My guess is the pattern flip won’t necessarily be very cold, but offer more snow chances as a whole with an active look.

GEFS are definitely active, but marginal airmasses. Might be an in and up look.

I get the moisture aspect in the tropics being a driver. We see that with the MJO and warm waters near the equator. That helps drive the hemispheric pattern...not a warm pool in the NPAC that has an avg temp of 52F instead of 50F. But the poles are warming faster which may help offset a bit? Seems like recently we were hearing the Jet Stream is getting more wavy. But that's how science works. Continuous thought and testing and going back to the theory.

ninja'd

Who would be these guys??

I think the storm on 12/24/94 will be classified as tropical from some rumors I heard. At the least STS. That was a good one.

MehauntonBlizzard2013?

I'm not a definite yet, but I think I can make it.

Wiped out a 40" pack in days.

That was a good one. I remember power flashes being seen and losing power as well. The cutters in Jan '96 were pretty wild. We had damage in both. I think I told you this story. I was working at Stop & Shop at the time. I was bringing in the carriages (I volunteered to weenie out) and the wind was ripping the sign apart. An old lady came out with her carriage and just got blown over. I remember laughing really hard because it happened so quick..but then I realized she was not getting up. At least I helped her lol. I think this was the last in the series of cutters.

I’d like to see that more of an Aleutian low, but that should work.

GEFS are better for the time around Christmas.

EPS is mild too. It’s just the time where the Pacific is in flux. It went to crap around day 10 on the 00z run and floods NAMR with maritime air. Hopefully it changes today.

Let’s get a multi day rain event for all like the 6z gfs shows.

Don't recall any good events last year Kev.

Looks like a fooking Atari game.

Euro op has a powerful LLJ..but probably inverted.

That period after looks less hostile now. Not sure if that is because things are indeed changing or maybe it's pushed back a few...but kind of encouraging to me. I wouldn't be too confident yet...but at least it didn't get worse.

Would be nice to pull something in that time.

At least it allows for something on the 17th.

We take the EPS changes after day 10.

Could be net gain.