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CoastalWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out.
  2. CoastalWx
    AEMATT?
  3. CoastalWx
    “GFS looks good so far..” AKA, Tobin looks good so far.
  4. CoastalWx
    Canadian is amped. Cold rain for many.
  5. CoastalWx
    It’s marginal at 925. Clowns may be too bullish.
  6. CoastalWx
    Strung out look though.
  7. CoastalWx
    Very marginal. But better deeper interior. Maybe it flashes over at the end.
  8. CoastalWx
    3-4 weeks out is more right than wrong. People make big money trying to forecast that. Otherwise, there would be no work there. It’s not like batting .800 but there is skill there. The last two years it’s been way more right than wrong. But we had good MJO constructive interference. This one time we had destructive interference.
  9. CoastalWx
    He thinks it’s the 1950s and we have no skill beyond day 2. We are examining caterpillars, sticking finger in the air, and judging clouds when we forecast.
  10. CoastalWx
    The idea of December to start poorly is also supported currently by MJO. But that wave is weak and perhaps overpowered by other things going on in the Pacific. Either way, I hope we can take advantage of this.
  11. CoastalWx
    Eh, we have skill there. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. It’s possible it’s delayed too which would stink.
  12. CoastalWx
    Yep. I don’t think I had an event more than 3” last winter.
  13. CoastalWx
    Temp is dropping and mix elevation seems to be near 700’ or so per KBOX CC.
  14. CoastalWx
    Some models sink the -NAO south and squash things, but I’m not worrying about that now. That ridge position out west is not a suppression look so maybe once the ridge in the Davis Straits weakens that may help? In any case, for early in the season I can’t complain about this look. Of course expectations in check.
  15. CoastalWx
    Yeah sure hope so. After 1000+ days of not seeing a 4”+ event, let’s get something to go right.
  16. CoastalWx
    41.7 here. Raw AF. Far cry from where I just came from lol.
  17. CoastalWx
    Skynet Euro definitely more offshore for Black Friday.
  18. CoastalWx
    Good bright banding on radar.
  19. CoastalWx
    About 2.3 here total. Much needed.
  20. CoastalWx
    Definitely chance of rain. But I’m not gonna complain in late November.
  21. CoastalWx
    About as good as you can ask for. Details TBD. It is early in the season.
  22. CoastalWx
    Well not sure about snow. That’s much harder to determine, but cooler helps.
  23. CoastalWx
    We’ll take this radar look in winter too.
  24. CoastalWx
    Ensembles look jacked in the long range. Pretty sure my initial thoughts a few weeks ago will be tossed.
  25. CoastalWx
    On Black Friday we lose some of the confluence so even with the gfs more S, the airmass is more marginal, especially near the coast. Euro maybe has some better confluence initially, but the s/w coming across the Midwest is stronger. EPS seems to favor deeper interior too. Gonna need the airmass behind these systems I think for coastal areas and even inland in SNE perhaps. Still a ways away.
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