We had a good one in 2015 where hunch got like over 7 inches and I think you had four or five. It was cold enough but I only had maybe an inch or two.
I’d say this event is very rare. Especially given how early the season it is.
I think you are on the edge. This one looks like your typical system where the synoptic forcing is north of the warm front. I could see an inch or a bit more there...but I think I'd feel more comfortable with a tick south.