New euro has been pretty good so far and it’s shown to perform well with the metrics that models are rated on. It does not mean it’s error proof though. We’ll see.
I’m just entertaining solutions at this point. Will be good to get a storm and break up the mundane weather for years. Not much to add other than it’s all or nothing I think. Don’t see much in between.
I think a scraper is a low prob. Like Will said, it's all or nothing really. Non-linear response. Either it happens or it doesn't. A scraper is not, non-zero....but I don't see that as an option that has a good chance of happening.
It’s always hard on ensemble mean, but ideally you want to see it a bit more buckled and definitely not positively tilted like the earlier time stamps.